The ceasefire in Gaza is not yet a week old, and Washington is already sending private U.S. security contractors to help operate checkpoints, a decision that one former military officer told RS is a “bad, bad idea.”
This will be the first time since 2003 that American security contractors have been in the strip. At that time, three private American contractors were killed by a roadside bomb while providing security for a diplomatic mission in Gaza.
Axios reports that two U.S. security companies will operate as part of a multi-national group, as laid out in the Gaza cease-fire deal, and Israel and Hamas have already approved them, as required by the deal.
The contractors will be inspecting vehicles that are moving into northern Gaza via the Netzarium corridor to ensure that no heavy weapons enter that part of the territory.
Israel had previously considered using security companies to distribute aid to Palestinians in Gaza last year as the Knesset was discussing banning the United Nations relief organization, UNRWA.
The Qatari government will likely fund the security forces. An Egyptian security company has also been selected for the mission. Safe Reach Solutions is one of the American companies providing security assistance and is credited with drawing up the plan. The other company, UG Solutions, is known for employing former soldiers from American and foreign special forces, according to Axios.
As part of the deal, these contractors will likely remain in Gaza during the first phase of the cease-fire, which is expected to last six weeks. Critics are already raising alarms about the potential safety issues.
“This is a bad, bad idea. This is a cauldron of angry people who are quite hostile towards Americans because most of the bombs that have fallen on Gazans have been U.S. provided,” said Lt Col. (retired) Daniel L. Davis.
“Gaza has been turned into a moonscape by Israeli Defense Forces actions, and thus any operation inside the Strip going forward should be IDF, not American,” Davis added. “The chances that angry Palestinians may target and kill Americans are uncomfortably high, in my view. Nothing good will come of this.”
Aaron is a reporter for Responsible Statecraft and a contributor to the Mises Institute. He received both his undergraduate and masters degrees in international relations from Liberty University.
Top Photo: Yousef Masoud / SOPA Images/Sipa via Reuters Connect
Top photo credit: General Abdourahmane Tchiani, who was declared as the new head of state of Niger by leaders of a coup, arrives to meet with ministers in Niamey, Niger July 28, 2023. REUTERS/Balima Boureima/
As the year 2024 wound to a close, Niger’s junta leader, Brigade General Abdourahmane Tchiani, made accusations that France is using neighboring Nigeria as a staging ground to destabilize his country.
According to Tchiani, who came to power after overthrowing President Mohamed Bazoum in a military coup in July 2023, France offered money to Nigerian authorities “to establish a base in Borno State, with the sole aim of destabilizing our countries” — an apparent reference to other junta-led West African States, Mali and Burkina Faso, which recently split from ECOWAS.
The Nigerian government has refuted the allegation, describing it as false and baseless. It is not the first time Niger’s junta has made such accusations without offering concrete evidence. Nevertheless whether Tchiani was serious or merely uttering "hot air" to distract attention, the accusation exposes the tensions between the two countries at a time when they should be working together. Worse, it shows how suspicious the region is of Western powers and their interactions with ECOWAS and especially Nigeria.
Both Nigeria and Niger are close neighbors within the Lake Chad basin with historic and familial ties. Their mutual borders require joint patrol to ward off jihadist insurgency and banditry ravaging the local communities. It is for this reason that the spat has set off concerns in border communities prompting the Nigerian army to issue assurances earlier this month that the joint patrols would continue regardless of the row.
Together with Boko Haram, ISWAP (Islamic State–West Africa Province), and other widely-known jihadist groups, new security threats like Lakurawa have emerged in the last few years demonstrating the importance of regional cooperation. At the center of the row is an attack on the Niger-Benin crude oil pipeline in Gaya, Niger’s Dosso region on December 13 last year. The pipeline, a major economic asset for Niger which has large crude deposits, had been targeted in the past by anti-junta rebel groups.
Tension had been brewing between Nigeria and Niger since July 26, 2023 when Bazoum, the democratically-elected president of Niger, was overthrown in a coup by his presidential guards headed by Tchiani. Bazoum and his wife Hadiza remain in detention since then, despite global calls for their release.
While in power, Bazoum had been a loyal ally of Niger’s former colonial power, France, so his removal represented a blow to French interests in the country. Since he took power, General Tchiani has broken ties with France, prompting the former colonial power to withdraw its 1,500 troops from the country in December 2023.
The junta has subsequently sought military support from Moscow in its fight against decades-long jihadist insurgency, following on the heels of Mali and Burkina Faso juntas. In April last year, the first set of about 100 Russian advisers arrived in Niamey along with air defense systems.
Niamey’s grouse with Nigeria’s government stems primarily from the role its resident, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has played since the July 26 coup in his capacity as the chairman of the regional bloc, ECOWAS. Eager to earn his stripes as a strong leader amid a regional crisis, Tinubu had been instrumental in securing a strong ECOWAS reprimand of the coup.
Under Tinubu’s leadership, the bloc also imposed a no fly zone and closed borders amid other crippling economic sanctions slapped on Niger after initially threatening to invade the country unless the junta reinstated Bazoum.
Intended to halt the string of coups plaguing the region in recent times, ECOWAS’s tough line achieved the opposite — hardening the juntas who saw the regional body as an attack dog of French and American imperialism punishing their citizens for defending their sovereignty.
In July 2023, Niger, alongside Mali and Burkina Faso, split from ECOWAS to form a mutual defense pact called the Alliance of Sahel States.
Part of a general trend, the coup in Niger occurred in the context of the growing unpopularity of France among its former colonies who accuse the Elysee Palace of meddling in their internal affairs despite granting them formal independence since 1960. For example, several countries have followed on the heels of the Alliance of Sahel States in expelling French troops, the latest being Ivory Coast and Senegal.
Right now, France has lost over 80 percent of its military presence in the region with only a few troops left in Gabon and Djibouti.
Alongside his tough stance against the coup, the Nigerian president’s recent cozy relationship with France makes him an easy target in the highly polarized environment that has developed within the region since the July 26 coup. Last November, Tinubu, embarked on a widely-publicized state visit to the Palais de l'Élysée, the first of any Nigerian leader in three decades.
Apparently signaling a shift in France Africa strategy towards strengthening relations with Anglophone countries, the visit has added to the growing suspicion among AES member states of a Western plot to destabilize them using Nigeria as a launch pad.
It is instructive that the diplomatic row was taking place ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration. Niger is a uranium-rich country in West Africa — holding at least 5 percent of global uranium mining output. The country, one of the region’s poorest in GDP terms, is also a crucial transit hub for Europe-bound migrants. Furthermore, Niger was an important base for U.S. counterterrorism operations because of its vantage location. This ended by April last year when U..S troops were evicted by the junta from two military bases, Air Base 101 in Niamey and Air Base 201 in Agadez, where they had been running drone operations for counterterrorism surveillance since 2019.
It is not clear whether the new Trump administration will be able to negotiate with any African state within the region to host a U.S. military base considering the prevailing sentiment. The loss of this vital facility means that for the next foreseeable period, the U.S. may have to rely on its bases in Italy and Djibouti for counter surveillance operations — an unfortunate downgrade in strategic advantage in the region.
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Top photo credit: Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang attends the China-Central Asia Foreign Ministers' meeting with Kazakhstan's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Murat Nurtleu, Kyrgyzstan's Minister of Foreign Affairs Kulubaev Zheenbek Moldokanovich, Tajikistan's Minister of Foreign Affairs Sirojiddin Muhriddin, Turkmenistan's First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Vepa Hajiyev and Uzbekistan's Minister of Foreign Affairs Bakhtiyor Saidov, in Xian, Shaanxi province, China, April 27, 2023. (Reuters)
President Donald Trump has caused quite a stir in the media in recent months with his bold statements on a diplomatic solution to the military conflict in and around Ukraine. One of his moves in this direction at the beginning of December was a phone call with Kazakhstan’s president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev asking the latter for his opinion on the issue.
The fact that Trump would pick up the phone to talk to Tokayev suggests that Kazakhstan could play a role as an actor in the search for a diplomatic solution in Ukraine. Furthermore, it underscores Central Asia’s potential to shape the peace and security architecture in Eurasia and beyond. In view of the aspirations of the new Trump administration, it is likely that U.S. policy towards Central Asia may be in line for an upgrade.
Central Asia's evolution as a middle power
In the past, Central Asia has tended to be perceived internationally as a troublemaker because of its security problems: the threat of Islamic extremism, domestic instability and recurrent political and social clashes, water and environmental issues as well as border conflicts among Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Despite various incidents, recent years have shown that Central Asia could well turn into a stabilizing factor, an independent security actor and a middle power in international politics.
First and foremost, regional cooperation has intensified and relations between countries have improved. The border demarcation between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan was officially completed in early 2023, and Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan reached an agreement on disputed territories at the end of 2024. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which have been competing for political and economic supremacy in the region for decades, signed an alliance agreement in 2022. A tandem of these two economically most dynamic and populous countries is fundamental for regional cooperation and security.
Finally, the first meeting of the secretaries of the security councils of the Central Asian countries took place last year. By peacefully resolving inherited or emerging conflicts and pooling the potential of each country, the region is becoming a stronger and more influential actor on the international stage in the process of reshaping the global peace and security architecture.
The C5+1 (the five Central Asian states plus the U.S.) foreign policy format established at the highest level since January 2022 is another step in that direction. Whether at a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, or Russian President Vladimir Putin, the leaders of the five Central Asian states (including Turkmenistan, which has long taken an isolationist approach) sat around the same table — a development that is extremely promising.
The region’s external assertiveness had already begun with the Western withdrawal from Afghanistan. While the countries of Central Asia were once a bridgehead for Western operations in Afghanistan, they are now largely on their own to deal with the challenges that remain.
C5 meets the new Trump administration
It was during Trump's first presidency that the current United States Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025 was formulated. It is defined as building a more stable and prosperous Central Asia that is free to pursue political, economic, and security interests with a variety of partners on its own terms and that is connected to global markets. It is noteworthy the U.S. strategy coincides with the region's aspiration for greater strategic autonomy, which is characteristic of emerging middle powers.
In practice, the C5+1 format at the level of foreign ministers, as envisaged in the strategy, was raised to the level of heads of state by Trump's successor, Joe Biden, when he met with the leaders of five Central Asian states in New York in 2023. The newly established B5+1 format — the private sector-led counterpart to the C5+1 — facilitates public-private dialog to promote greater economic partnership between the U.S. and Central Asia.
However, since the U.S., whether governed by Republicans or Democrats, seeks to reduce its dependence on China, it is highly likely that cooperation in the area of strategic resources will be of interest for Trump's interaction with the region. In that context, the dialogue with Central Asia on critical minerals, established in 2023, is of utmost significance. China is the most important source of imports for many of the minerals identified by the U.S. government as strategic, such as lithium, cobalt or nickel. Strategic resources and the long-standing energy cooperation are thus potential key areas of relations between the new Trump administration and Central Asia.
An update of the Central Asia Strategy will be necessary in the light of at least two major developments. First, the growing importance and need for further development of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (TCTR), also known as the Middle Corridor, which runs across the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus, bypassing Russia, and is intended for the transport of industrial goods and fossil energy to Europe. The U.S. and EU recently agreed on a partnership to strengthen the Middle Corridor.
Second, the 2019-2025 strategy was essentially focused on Afghanistan. Since the U.S. withdrawal in 2021, the U.S. has not recognized either the Taliban or any other organization as the government of Afghanistan, making the Central Asian states all the more important as a link in monitoring developments in Afghanistan and coordinating the continued relocation of U.S.-Afghan allies. In both cases, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan — rising middle powers and strategic partners of the U.S. in the region — are likely to play a role.
Maneuvering as a group
The geography of Central Asia at the intersection of the interests of Russia, China, Turkey, Iran and the West means that a single country, even one as large and economically relatively powerful as Kazakhstan, is unlikely to effectively maintain the maneuverability of a middle power in the long run.
Rather, the five countries in the region are best placed to pursue their interests when acting as a group with a regional agenda. This is what Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have been trying to do since 2022 in particular.
Having this in mind, it is logical for the Trump administration to pursue a deal-driven approach that would accommodate foreign policy pragmatism shown by the Central Asian countries. The new U.S. administration would be well advised to take advantage of the increased interaction among Central Asian states, as well as within their widespread network of strategic partnerships and alliances, that includes Russia, China, Turkey and the Arab world, by engaging on energy, connectivity and security to the benefit of all actors involved.
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Top photo credit: Vice President JD Vance, President Donald Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) his wife, Kelly Johnson at Emancipation Hall during the 60th Presidential Inauguration, Monday, Jan. 20, 2025, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington.Graeme Jennings/Pool via REUTERS
In his inaugural speech Monday, President Donald Trump pledged to build "the strongest military the world has ever seen." It was just one note in a broader composition about restoring confidence and pride in the country — "the start of a thrilling new era of national success."
The newly sworn-in 47th president — his second time since 2017 — did not dwell on specific foreign policy aspirations, but instead weaved them generally into his overall theme of an "America First" era, conjuring the spirits of Ronald Reagan and Teddy Roosevelt and largely ignoring the last 20 years in which the U.S. was largely embroiled in failed wars, proxy or otherwise.
We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.
My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier. That’s what I want to be, a peacemaker and a unifier. I’m pleased to say that as of yesterday, one day before I assumed office, the hostages in the Middle East are coming back home to their families. Thank you.
America will reclaim its rightful place as the greatest, most powerful, most respected nation on Earth, inspiring the awe and admiration of the entire world.
For Trump, "our power will stop all wars and bring a new spirit of unity to a world that has been angry, violent and totally unpredictable."
The new "heights of victory and success" will not only mean this kind of peace abroad, but winning what he sees are specific battles at home (against the "invasion" of "criminal aliens") and in the hemisphere (taking back Panama Canal) and pursuing "manifest destiny" (planting the flag on Mars via newly invigorated Space exploration, nod to Elon Musk).
Trump announced that one of his Executive Orders today would be to declare a national emergency on the nation's southern border, which may mean the expanded deployment of National Guard and/or U.S. troops. Since National Guard troops have been patrolling the border more or less since the George W. Bush administration, it is not clear in what capacity and how many soldiers may be deployed.
In addition:
"Under the orders I signed today, we will also be designating the cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. And by invoking the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, I will direct our government to use the full and immense power of federal and state law enforcement to eliminate the presence of all foreign gang criminal networks, bringing devastating crime to U.S. soil, including our cities and inner cities.
As commander in chief I have no higher responsibility than to defend our country from threats and invasions, and that is exactly what I am going to do. We will do it at a level that nobody has ever seen before."
This could unleash a new 'drug war' on border areas. He did not mention whether he would be sending Special Forces or "kill teams" inside Mexico, which had been part of an ongoing conversation/debate since it was raised by himself and Republican candidates throughout the presidential campaign.
Trump reiterated his intention to "take back" the Panama Canal, though he did not say how that would be done. According to author Joanna Rozpedowski, "the Neutrality Treaty between Panama and the United States signed on September 7, 1977 guarantees the Panama Canal's permanent neutrality, fair access to the Canal for all nations as 'an international transit waterway,' and prohibits foreign military presence in Panamanian territory, with Panama retaining sole operational and administrative control. The United States, however, has reserved the right to use military force to defend the Canal's neutrality."
In his speech Monday, Trump asserted that somehow the 1977 agreement had been "broken."
We have been treated very badly from this foolish gift that should have never been made. And Panama’s promise to us has been broken. The purpose of our deal and the spirit of our treaty has been totally violated.
American ships are being severely overcharged and not treated fairly in any way, shape, or form. And that includes the United States Navy. And above all, China is operating the Panama Canal, and we didn’t give it to China, we gave it to Panama. And we’re taking it back.
He did not mention Greenland, which he has made it clear he wants Washington to buy for strategic reasons, but said clearly that "the United States will once again consider itself a growing nation, one that increases our wealth, expands our territory, builds our cities, raises our expectations and carries our flag into new and beautiful horizons." He said he would "restore the name of a great president, William McKinley, to Mount McKinley, where it should be and where it belongs" and noted his responsibility for seeding the creation of the Panama Canal before his assassination in 1901. McKinley was also known as a great imperialist/expansionist presidency, under which Hawaii, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines were annexed.
Trump believes that the United States can achieve peace on one hand, and respect and admiration on the other through all of these things. "America will soon be greater, stronger and far more exceptional than ever before." A different take on a more humble foreign policy for sure. War however, he insists, is a dead end for the kind of "golden age" he envisions. And that's a bit different too. Let's hope he can get us there, peacefully.
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