Follow us on social

Shutterstock_1884861361

Russian invasion could change the world order

What started out as a league of nations turned into a unipolar century. That's evaporating quickly and the US now has to reckon with it.

Analysis | Europe

I was wrong several weeks ago when I suggested that Vladimir Putin did not plan to invade Ukraine but merely wanted the West to address his security concerns in Eastern Europe.  He evidently wants to turn the whole country into another satellite like Belarus, and perhaps to add them formally to Russia within a few years. 

Exactly what he can accomplish militarily is an open question.  Kyiv lies close to the border and Russian troops have reportedly entered it on the second day of fighting, but Ukraine is a large and populous country, and the United States has found out how difficult subduing such a country can be. Rather than speculate about the military and political outcome of the invasion, I would like to suggest that it is a turning point for the international system — the next chapter in a story that began with the collapse of Communism in 1989, and whose roots go back at least until 1919.

We easily forget today that both the League of Nations and the United Nations originally aimed not to organize wars against aggressors, but to find alternatives to war. Negotiation, arbitration and conciliation were the preferred alternatives in the era of the League, but they failed when the Japanese refused to accept League recommendations in Manchuria, and when Mussolini defied the League and a threat of economic sanctions after attacking Ethiopia. President Truman hoped publicly that the UN would settle disputes peacefully in 1945, but had to recognize a few years later that differences among the great powers were making that impossible.

In 1950, the UN Security Council actually authorized war to halt North Korean aggression under a US commander, because the Soviet delegate happened to be boycotting the council when the war broke out. That attack convinced the US that it faced an irredeemably hostile, expansionist Soviet Union, and that it had to rely on alliances and military force to stop it.  

George H.W. Bush was a 21-year-old veteran when the UN Charter was adopted, and President in 1990 when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait as the Soviet empire was collapsing. For one brief shining moment, Bush managed to get the whole Security Council behind war to remove Saddam from Kuwait, including both the USSR and China. Yet both the neoconservatives in his own party and the foreign policy leadership of the Clinton administration took this not as proof not that an original UN model could work, but rather that the United States could use its political, economic and military power to assure any outcome it wanted anywhere in the world.

That was the theme of UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali’s book, Unvanquished, in 1999, and in that same year, the United States, unable to secure Russian or Chinese support in the Security Council this time, used NATO to fight a war against Yugoslavia under Kosovo. Four years later, we went into Iraq with almost no UN support at all. By that time the George W. Bush administration had asserted a right to attack any nation that was developing weapons we did not think it should have in its 2002 National Security Strategy. And although Barack Obama had opposed the Iraq war, he undertook regime change in both Libya and Syria without UN authorization himself, with results ranging from mixed to disastrous.

Vladimir Putin has rejected the “unipolar” system of U.S. power from the beginning, and in Georgia, Crimea, and now all Ukraine, he has unilaterally used force to impose a preferred outcome himself. The United States and NATO are not challenging the Ukraine invasion militarily, but they want to compel Russia to give it up, it seems, with tough economic sanctions.   In effect, they are gambling that in the age of globalization, their control of international economic and financial institutions — combined, perhaps, with determined Ukrainian resistance — will make it impossible for an aggressor nation to defy their will.  

If that tactic succeeds it will vindicate the U.S. belief that it can work its will around the world on behalf of certain principles of law and self-determination.  If it does not, we will face two large rival powers — Russia and China — who explicitly reject many of our principles and our leadership and who may at any time use military force to achieve local goals of their own. If Putin does establish control over Ukraine the Baltic States will be the next logical target, while the Chinese threat to Taiwan will become more acute. 

What the United States can do, if economic power has failed, will depend upon local military realities. The Baltic States cannot easily be interdicted by the Russians are small enough to make NATO defense possible.  Taiwan, on the other hand, is now very vulnerable to a Chinese attack and the U.S. might suffer disastrous naval losses trying to stop one.  Meanwhile, the possibility of new great-power conflict will carry with it the possibility of a nuclear exchange.

There is nothing wrong with the principles of international law, respect for frontiers, and respect for the rights of peoples to choose their form of government for which the United States stands — even though the United States itself has violated those principles for various reasons at various times.  The world that Wilson and FDR dreamed of, in which all nations accepted these principles, would be a better one. Yet it is not clear that in a world of three great military powers, one of those powers can force the others to observe them. That is the issue that is now at stake in this crisis, and if Putin does seize Ukraine, we will have to face a new world of superpower competition and continual threats of local limited war.

(Waldemarus/Shutterstock)
Analysis | Europe
Ukraine landmines
Top image credit: A sapper of the 24th mechanized brigade named after King Danylo installs an anti-tank landmine, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, on the outskirts of the town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region, Ukraine October 30, 2024. Oleg Petrasiuk/Press Service of the 24th King Danylo Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout via REUTERS

Ukrainian civilians will pay for Biden's landmine flip-flop

QiOSK

The Biden administration announced today that it will provide Ukraine with antipersonnel landmines for use inside the country, a reversal of its own efforts to revive President Obama’s ban on America’s use, production, transfer, and stockpiling of the indiscriminate weapons anywhere except the Korean peninsula.

The intent of this reversal, one U.S. official told the Washington Post, is to “contribute to a more effective defense.” The landmines — use of which is banned in 160 countries by an international treaty — are expected to be deployed primarily in the country’s eastern territories, where Ukrainian forces are struggling to defend against steady advances by the Russian military.

keep readingShow less
 Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
Top image credit: Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva attends task force meeting of the Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, July 24, 2024. REUTERS/Tita Barros

Brazil pulled off successful G20 summit

QiOSK

The city of Rio de Janeiro provided a stunningly beautiful backdrop to Brazil’s big moment as host of the G20 summit this week.

Despite last minute challenges, Brazil pulled off a strong joint statement (Leaders’ Declaration) that put some of President Lula’s priorities on human welfare at the heart of the grouping’s agenda, while also crafting impressively tough language on Middle East conflicts and a pragmatic paragraph on Ukraine.

keep readingShow less
Ukraine Russia
Top Photo: Ukrainian military returns home to Kiev from conflict at the border, where battles had raged between Ukraine and Russian forces. (Shuttertock/Vitaliy Holov)

Poll: Over 50% of Ukrainians want to end the war

QiOSK

A new Gallup study indicates that most Ukrainians want the war with Russia to end. After more than two years of fighting, 52% of those polled indicated that they would prefer a negotiated peace rather than continuing to fight.

Ukrainian support for the war has consistently dropped since Russia began its full-scale invasion in 2022. According to Gallup, 73% wished to continue fighting in 2022, and 63% in 2023. This is the first time a majority supported a negotiated peace.

keep readingShow less

Election 2024

Latest

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.