Diplomacy Watch: Ukraine faces failure — and fate — in Pokrovsk

Any day now, Russia is expected to complete its takeover of Pokrovsk, a city in Ukraine’s Donbas region that was once home to 60,000 people. The looming capture could have serious implications for the future of the war, depending on how, exactly, Ukraine chooses to take the loss.

One option for Kyiv is to carry out a rapid retreat to stronger positions outside the city, which long ago lost its former importance as a transport hub. Some Ukrainian soldiers are already making this case publicly. “It seems to me that the fate of this city is already decided,” a Ukrainian drone battalion commander told the New York Times. “I see nothing wrong or shameful in pulling our positions back to more advantageous locations.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, for his part, said Thursday that he had authorized local commanders to retreat if necessary. But there is no evidence yet that Ukrainian forces are taking this escape route.

Instead, Kyiv now appears ready to dig in its heels and fight until the last possible moment, as it did in Bakhmut in 2023. While such a move would show resolve on the part of Ukrainian leaders, it would also likely lead to massive losses of soldiers and equipment, according to Anatol Lieven, the director of the Eurasia program at the Quincy Institute, which publishes RS.

These losses could be “more significant than the fall of the town itself” on both a practical and psychological level, Lieven said. Three and a half years into its full-scale war with Russia, Ukraine is facing shortages in both military equipment and the manpower needed to keep it running. A bloody last stand at Pokrovsk would further sap these finite resources and could lead to “recriminations” in Ukraine, according to Lieven, who noted that many Ukrainian analysts chided Kyiv for having “thrown away a lot of Ukrainian lives unnecessarily” in Bakhmut.

Such a disaster could represent a turning point in Russia’s campaign to take the Donbas — or at least a major shot in the arm to Russian forces there. “It'll certainly be a boost for Putin and the regime,” Lieven said. “It will restore Russian morale, which was beginning to falter a bit.”

This shift would further reduce Russia’s incentive to come to the negotiating table in the near term. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have decided that he “simply has to get a hold of the Donbas in order to declare victory,” Lieven argued, citing conversations with officials in Moscow and Washington. And he’d prefer to achieve that goal at the negotiating table, judging at least by his recent offer of a ceasefire in exchange for Ukraine ceding the 22% of the Donbas that it still holds.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected that proposal out of hand and made clear that he wouldn’t give up the Donbas without a fight. And he had strong incentives to do so. As Lieven explained, the army would likely “refuse to obey” an order to simply withdraw from the region. But Zelensky’s refusal, combined with a Ukrainian disaster in Pokrovsk, could well convince Putin that his only path to taking the entire Donbas is through military force — and that time is on his side.

Put simply, Zelensky and his military commanders are now left with a difficult choice: either retreat and live to fight another day, or double down and risk handing Putin a significant victory. All available evidence suggests that they’ll take the latter.