Follow us on social

Trigger happy Israel and its thirst for revenge

Trigger happy Israel and its thirst for revenge

These cross-border assassinations reflect a national rage playing out in Gaza's carnage — and Netanyahu's desire to keep the war going forever

Analysis | Middle East

The assassination in Iran of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, almost certainly by Israel or elements acting on Israel’s behalf, will have no positive effects—including for the security of Israel itself.

Instead, it will only increase further the already high potential for additional war, death, and destruction in the Middle East.

The Iranian regime will feel obligated to respond, even though the victim of the assassination was not Iranian. The attack happened in the heart of Iran, and the killing of a foreign visitor who was in town for the inauguration of Iran’s new president is a severe embarrassment for Tehran.

Iranian decision-makers will weigh conflicting considerations in choosing how to respond. One clue to their thinking is Iran’s response to Israel’s attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus in April. That Iranian retaliation was a missile and drone barrage on Israel that was large but designed to minimize damage to Israel and thus minimize any rationale for Israel to escalate further.

The Iranian response to the newest assassination will not necessarily be the same, but the regime may again look for ways to send a forceful message while limiting the risk of escalation.

It has become standard Israeli practice to treat any armed action against Israel as if it were unprovoked aggression rather than retaliation for something Israel itself had done. Thus, it can be expected that no matter how Iran retaliates this time, Israel will respond with additional violent actions. This tit-for-tat, despite efforts by one side or the other to limit escalation, will carry the risk of spinning out of control.

Israel’s long record of assassinations, as well as other sabotage, in Iran has focused in the past on Iranian nuclear scientists. Those assassinations, unlike diplomatic measures, did nothing to prevent the Iranian nuclear program from advancing to its current status of being on the threshold of having enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon.

Similarly, the assassination of Haniyeh will do nothing to curb Hamas violence against Israelis, either in the Gaza Strip or elsewhere. Haniyeh was a political figure who lived in exile in recent years and appeared to have little or no influence on, or even awareness of, the military activities of Hamas elements in Gaza. The main immediate effect of the assassination will be to impede negotiations for a cease-fire and hostage release, because of both Haniyeh’s personal role in the diplomacy involved and the overall increase in tension and animosity in the environment surrounding the diplomacy.

This latest chapter in Israel’s long history of assassinations, both clandestine and overt, has recently appeared to have gone into a macabre autopilot mode, in which targets for assassination are hit with seemingly no regard for consequences affecting the security not just of foreigners but of Israelis. This has especially been true regarding targets in Hamas but also, amid rising tensions along the Israeli-Lebanese border, ones in Hezbollah.

The itchiness of the Israeli assassination trigger was demonstrated after a rocket hit a soccer field a few days ago and killed 12 people — not Israelis in what the world recognizes as Israel, but rather Druze in a village in the occupied Golan Heights of Syria. The strong denials of responsibility by Hezbollah are credible given the difficulty in imagining any possible motive for Hezbollah to target Druze in occupied Syria.

Most of the Druze in the Golan Heights are, despite the years of Israeli occupation, Syrian citizens. Rather than an intentional Hezbollah attack, the lethal rocket may have been either misdirected Hezbollah ordnance or, even more likely, an Israeli Iron Dome interceptor that missed its airborne target.

Despite all the doubts, the automatic Israeli response was to kill another Hezbollah figure, this time with an aerial attack in a heavily populated Beirut neighborhood that also killed three civilian bystanders and injured several dozen more.

As with the assassination operations against Hamas, this killing will do nothing to reduce either the capability or the willingness of Hezbollah to harm Israelis. It will only make more difficult the diplomatic efforts to stabilize the Israeli-Lebanon frontier and prevent an all-out war.

The nearly automatic Israeli resort to ineffectual assassination partly reflects a kind of national rage that has been repeatedly displayed in the carnage and mass suffering in the Gaza Strip over the past nine months. But there may also be a more calculated element, especially as it involves Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with his personal motives to keep a war of some sort going, in trying to escape his political and legal problems, whether or not a cease-fire is ever reached in Gaza.

Despite earlier indications of an Israeli inclination not to escalate directly to full-scale war with either Hezbollah or Iran, dragging the United States into a war with Iran is probably an objective of Netanyahu. It would serve the multiple purposes that the constant Israeli promotion of hostility toward Iran have always served—including diverting attention from Israel’s own actions in Gaza and elsewhere—while letting the United States do the heavy military lifting, with all the costs and risks that involves.

Whether or not Netanyahu achieves this objective, Israel’s latest action reinforces its status as one of the Middle East’s most active state perpetrators of terrorism (and the assassination of the Hamas political leader Haniyeh was an act of international terrorism according to an official U.S. definition) and leading sources of regional instability.


People walk on the rubble of a damaged site the day after an Israeli strike, in Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon July 31, 2024. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Analysis | Middle East
F-35
Top image credit: Brian G. Rhodes via shutterstock.com

US gov't admits F-35 is a failure

Military Industrial Complex

Nearly a quarter century after the Pentagon awarded Lockheed Martin the contract to develop the Joint Strike Fighter Program into the F-35, the government finally admitted the jet will never live up to Lockheed’s ambitious promises — used to sell the $2 trillion boondoggle to nearly 20 countries around the world.

The Government Accountability Office released a report last month detailing the ongoing challenges the program faces. The first paragraph of the highlights page includes this sentence:

keep readingShow less
Europe Ukraine
Top image credit: August 18, 2025, Washington, District Of Columbia, USA: Top European leaders in the Oval Office, Monday, August 18, 2025. (Credit Image: Daniel Torok/White House/ZUMA Press Wire)

Europe's latest seized Russian asset scheme is as dumb as ever

Europe

Last month, Lithuania’s former foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis pithily diagnosed Europe as being stuck in a perpetual geopolitical Groundhog Day. Landsbergis is quite correct, though for reasons that would leave him unsmiling.

Europe’s problem is not its hesitance to confront Russia, one quality it enjoys in ample abundance, but its insistence on prioritizing short-term measures over a realistic strategy for ending the war in Ukraine.

keep readingShow less
Chris Pratt, Steph Curry
Chris Pratt (Joe Seer/Shutterstock); Israel flag (Shutterstock); Stephen Curry (Reuters)

Israel wants to hire Chris Pratt and Steph Curry

Washington Politics

A newly created firm called Show Faith by Works is carrying out a $3.2 million outreach and digital targeting campaign to Christian churches in the western United States on behalf of the Israeli government. The firm’s goal, as described in its filing under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, is to increase “positive associations with the Nation of Israel, while linking the Palestinian population with extremist factors.”

Show Faith by Works will carry out the campaign through December for its work, which includes targeting churchgoers with pro-Israel ads “geofencing” major churches, hiring celebrity spokespeople, and visiting churches and colleges with a mobile trailer called the “10/7 Experience” on behalf of the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.