Follow us on social

Money

The annual military budget could hit $1 trillion by 2027

The push for China competition, along with a lack of fiscal discipline, is pushing Pentagon spending into the stratosphere.

Analysis | Military Industrial Complex

For years, reporters and policy analysts have pondered when the U.S. military budget will surpass $1 trillion per year. The number carries symbolic importance and even stands as a goal for some defense hawks, with prominent conservative writer Rich Lowry writing in National Review this past March that “We Need a $1 Trillion Defense Budget.” 

It is also a reminder that the Pentagon’s appetite for taxpayer funds grows year by year regardless of the nation’s looming budget constraints — not to mention the numerous economic and social policy challenges that do not or should not invoke a military response.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), generally considered the most authoritative crystal ball for federal budget projections in Washington, D.C., currently predicts the U.S. will either near or surpass $1 trillion in defense spending in 2032 (depending on whether you measure spending by budget authority or outlays; I use the former in this piece).

Using alternative and more realistic assumptions about congressional behavior, we could reach a $1 trillion defense budget five years sooner, in 2027.

Although the budget analysts at CBO have near-unmatched expertise and access to federal budget and economic data, they are also chained, in some respects, by rules and assumptions Congress forces them to follow. And CBO budget-scoring rules don’t typically account for the political reality behind defense budgets of the past few years — namely, bipartisan support for plussing up the defense budget by tens of billions of dollars per year.

One potentially flawed assumption in CBO’s current budget baseline, released in May 2022, is that defense spending will total only $828 billion in 2023, a $32 billion or four-percent increase from 2022. The Senate Armed Services Committee passed a defense authorization bill that commits to $857 billion in 2023 spending, a $61 billion or 7.6-percent increase from CBO-projected 2022 levels. The House’s version of the same bill commits to $850 billion, a $54 billion or 6.7-percent increase from 2022 levels.

A year-end agreement between Republicans and Democrats in Congress could fall somewhere in between those two numbers ($850 billion and $857 billion), or lawmakers could agree to go even higher on account of inflation and tensions with Russia and China. Either way, it’s likely the 2023 defense budget authorized by Congress will be much higher than current CBO projections. America’s $70 billion in commitments to Ukraine in 2022 are also starting to make CBO’s projection for just $15 billion in emergency defense spending in 2023 look foolhardy.

All in all, it’s not hard to see the military budget end up closer to $900 billion than $800 billion in 2023, despite CBO’s May projections that it would be just $828 billion.

Another flawed assumption in CBO’s baseline is that defense spending will only increase an average of 2.5 percent per year from 2024 through 2032. During the latter Obama years defense spending actually shrunk, a result of waning U.S. military presence overseas and defense spending caps passed by Congress on a bipartisan basis.

Under the Trump administration though, and in each of the past five years, defense spending has seen huge annual boosts — 5.5 percent from 2017 to 2018, 8.6 percent from 2018 to 2019, 5.5 percent from 2019 to 2020, 3.9 percent from 2020 to 2021, and around 1.9 percent from 2021 to 2022 (these are measured in outlays rather than budget authority, since CBO historical data is readily available for the former but not the latter).

Accounting for these major boosts to the defense budget — and the lack of defense spending caps in the forthcoming years, unlike those in place from 2012 through 2021 — I mapped out three alternative scenarios for the U.S. military budget for my organization, National Taxpayers Union Foundation.

All three scenarios operate from the same initial assumption, that defense spending increases eight percent from 2022 to 2023 rather than CBO’s current projection of four percent. I provide three arguments for why this is a realistic prediction for the defense side of the federal budget:

— A bipartisan majority on the Senate Armed Services Committee has already agreed to increase FY 2023 defense authorization levels to $845 billion, a roughly eight-percent increase from FY 2022

— Over the course of FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022), inflation as measured by CPI-U was around eight percent

— In recent bipartisan negotiations over spending bills, lawmakers have aimed for ‘parity’ between defense increases and non-defense increases — as was the case just last year.

An eight-percent boost in 2023 would increase defense spending relative to CBO projections in all 10 years of the current budget window, because it creates a higher baseline in 2023 — upon which I predict lawmakers will keep adding more funds, rather than subtracting them. In the first scenario, defense spending increases only at CBO–projected rates (an average of 2.5 percent per year) for the remaining nine years of the 10-year window (2024–32). In the second scenario, defense spending from 2024–32 increases at a rate 25 percent higher than CBO projections (three percent per year). In the third scenario, perhaps the most politically realistic one, defense spending increases at double CBO-projected rates from 2024–32, around an average of five percent per year.

Under the first scenario, defense spending hits $1 trillion in 2030 instead of 2032. In the second scenario, defense spending hits $1 trillion before the end of the decade, in 2029. And in the third scenario — five percent growth per year, a defense hawk’s dream — defense spending crosses the $1 trillion mark in 2027.

Under that last scenario, defense spending is a whopping $1.5 trillion higher over the course of the whole decade than under current CBO projections. Around this time last year I projected that congressional boosts would cost us $1.2 trillion over 10 years. The absence of budget discipline will place an increasing burden on the shoulders of American taxpayers in coming years.


(phanurak rubpol/shutterstock)
Analysis | Military Industrial Complex
Somalia
Top image credit: U.S. forces host a range day with the Danab Brigade in Somalia, May 9, 2021. Special Operations Command Africa remains engaged with partner forces in Somalia in order to promote safety and stability across the Horn of Africa. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Zoe Russell)

Why the US can't beat al-Shabaab in Somalia

Africa

The New York Times reported earlier this month that recent gains by al-Shabaab Islamist militants in central and southern Somalia has prompted a debate within the State Department about closing the U.S. Embassy in Mogadishu and withdrawing most American personnel. At the forefront of some officials’ minds, according to the Times, are memories of recent foreign policy fiascos, such as the fall of the Afghan government amid a hasty American withdrawal in 2021.

There are good reasons to question why the U.S. has been unable to defeat al-Shabaab despite nearly 20 years of U.S. military involvement in the country. But the scale of the U.S. role is drastically different than that of Afghanistan, and the U.S. cannot necessarily be described as the most significant external security actor on the ground. At the same time, the Trump administration has given no indication that it will scale down drone strikes — meaning that the U.S. will continue to privilege military solutions.

keep readingShow less
Hegseth Guam
Top photo credit: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth departs Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, March 27, 2025. (DOD photo by U.S. Air Force Madelyn Keech)

Hegseth goes to 'spear point' Guam to prep for war with China

Asia-Pacific

The Guam headlines from the recent visit of the U.S. secretary of defense are only part of Secretary Hegseth’s maiden visit to the Pacific. It is Guam’s place in the larger picture - where the island fits into U.S. strategy - that helps us understand how the “tip of the spear” is being positioned. Perhaps overlooked, the arrangement of the “Guam piece” gives us a better sense not only of Guam’s importance to the United States, but also of how the U.S. sees the larger geopolitical competition taking shape.

Before he landed on Guam, the secretary of defense circulated a secret memo that prioritized U.S. readiness for a potential conflict with China over Taiwan. At the same time, it was reported that U.S. intelligence assessed that Guam would be “a major target of Chinese missile strikes” if China launched an invasion of Taiwan.

keep readingShow less
Pope Francis' legacy of inter-faith diplomacy
Top image credit: Pope Francis met with Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, one of the Muslim world's leading authorities on March 6, 2021 in Najaf, Iraq. (Vatican Media via REUTERS)

Pope Francis' legacy of inter-faith diplomacy

Global Crises

One of the most enduring tributes to Pope Francis, who passed away this Easter, would be the appreciation for his legacy of inter-religious diplomacy, a vision rooted in his humility, compassion, and a commitment to bridging divides — between faiths, cultures, and ideologies — from a standpoint of mutual respect and tolerance.

Among his most profound contributions is his historic meeting with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Najaf, Iraq, on March 6, 2021. What made this meeting a true landmark in inter-faith dialogue was the fact it brought together, for the first time, the spiritual leader of the world’s 1.2 billion Roman Catholics and one of the most revered figures in Shia Islam, with influence on tens of millions of Shia Muslims globally. In a humble, yet moving ceremony, the meeting took place in al-Sistani’s modest home in Najaf. A frail al-Sistani, who rarely receives visitors and typically remains seated, stood to greet the 84-year-old Pope and held his hand, in a gesture that underscored mutual respect.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.