Follow us on social

Shutterstock_1234647730-scaled

The roots of Turkey's balancing act with Russia on Ukraine

With an election looming, Erdogan knows that he needs to keep Ankara's economic relationship with Moscow intact.

Analysis | Middle East

Often exasperating to Western powers, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is performing a difficult balancing act ultimately designed to help him retain power in the 2023 elections despite a deeply troubled economy.

Just a few days before reports came out about the territorial gains of the Ukrainian army in the country’s northeast region, Erdogan had warned the West not to “underestimate Russia” and criticized its “provocation-based policy” toward Putin. 

It was one of several previous episodes where Turkey surprised its watchers, wherever they might stand on the war in Ukraine.

I have given more than a dozen interviews and lectures on Turkey’s foreign policy in Ukraine since the start of Putin’s “special military operation” in February 2022. Two questions came up in nearly every single one of them. The first was whether Turkey was effectively on both sides of the war in Ukraine. The second asked if Turkey’s positioning was an asset or liability for the Western alliance, especially in the context of NATO’s support for Ukraine. The answer to the first question is a simple yes. The second, however, needs a lot more elaboration. 

Turkey (or Türkiye, as the country now demands to be called) stands at a key juncture between the West and Russia. This position, both politically and geographically, has fundamentally shaped its Ukraine policy. 

On the one hand, Turkey is a U.S. ally and a longstanding and critical member of NATO as the alliance’s second largest troop contributor. The country served key roles in the NATO operations in Kosovo and Afghanistan. Even though it was not taken up, Turkey had also offered to operate the Kabul airport after Washington’s withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer. And even though its relations with the United States have strained more than quite a bit over the last decade, Turkey still considers itself a U.S. ally and has no intentions to sever ties. 

On the other hand, Turkey maintains strong relations with Russia especially in terms of trade. The country is one of the biggest buyers of Russian natural gas and exports food products and chemicals worth billions of dollars. Turkey also attracts millions of Russian tourists each year with its affordable beach resorts and visa-free travel regime with its Black Sea neighbor. Most importantly, the two countries have forged increasingly critical security and defense relationships in the last few years. The most critical of these include their military coordination in Syria and, of course, Turkey’s controversial purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system in 2017. 

That is quite some baggage. And Turkey has been maintaining a balancing act in Ukraine precisely because of it.  

For instance, Turkey declared the “special military operation” in Ukraine a “war” soon after its onset. Doing so, Ankara exercised its Montreux Convention rights to close the straits, the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, to outbound Russian battleships. Ankara also provided the now infamous Bayraktar TB2 drones to Ukraine early on in the conflict, and once again more recently. The drones helped Ukraine achieve some early tactical gains that bolstered morale when it was most needed. 

Yet, unlike its Western allies, Turkey did not close its airspace to Russian aircraft, nor did it impose any economic sanctions on Russia. In fact, the country has doubled its gas imports from Russia and monetized its visa-free travel regime at a time when it has become increasingly difficult for Russians to get Schengen visas for Europe.

Clearly, Turkey is on both sides of the war. But is its position an asset or liability for the West? 

There are two ways to answer that question. Some would argue that Turkey’s positioning is an asset not just for the West but for the developing world as well. Ankara was able to negotiate the deal that lifted the Odessa port blockade and allowed the shipment of Ukrainian grain, potentially mitigating a global food crisis. Turkey was able to mediate between Ukraine and Russia precisely because it has chosen to hedge its bets on both sides of the conflict. Further, Turkey’s position may also have played some role in preventing further escalation between NATO and Russia, such as stalling Finland and Sweden’s NATO bids earlier this spring. 

Others would certainly argue, however, that Turkey has proven to be an unpredictable ally that undermines the West’s determination to stand against Russian aggression. After all, one man’s balancing act is another’s lack of commitment. Given the importance of credibility in international relations, especially for organizations of democratic states like NATO, Turkey’s “half-hearted” approach to the war in Ukraine can be considered a liability for NATO’s resolve and its ability to deter Russia in the future, further destabilizing the region.

So what is Erdogan’s endgame? 

It has become impossible to understand Turkey’s foreign policy, including its Ukraine policy, without understanding the country’s domestic politics and Erdogan’s future in it.

National elections in Turkey are coming up in 2023, which will also mark the republic’s centennial. The race has enormous political and symbolic significance for Erdogan and his AKP. After having lost the mayorships of Turkey’s three largest cities to opposition candidates in 2018, Erdogan has vowed to renew his and his party’s mandate next year. That looks like an increasingly difficult challenge, however, given the country’s grim economic outlook. Turkey’s currency, the lira, has lost more than half of its value against the dollar since 2021. Interest rates remain shockingly low (it’s personal for Erdogan) and prices have shot up nearly 100 percent in major cities like Istanbul. The opposition bloc is energetic and hopeful even though they have yet to decide on their presidential candidate. 

Perhaps for the first time, electoral defeat is a very likely outcome for Erdogan next year. Turkey’s position in Ukraine is directly tethered to his political future. He cannot turn his back to Russia and send the country’s economy into a tailspin. Instead, he pursues this difficult balancing act that he packages as Turkey’s “strategic autonomy” in foreign policy while scoring additional points by mediating high-profile negotiations between the warring parties. “Turkey doesn’t take orders from others; we are a key actor in the region and the makers of our own foreign policy” is a powerful and compelling message that attracts voters from every corner of Turkish society. He needs popular support more than ever, and his Ukraine policy might just help him get it.


Editorial credit: quetions123 / Shutterstock.com
Analysis | Middle East
Trump Vance Rubio
Top image credit: President Donald Trump meets with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance before a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Monday, August 18, 2025, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

The roots of Trump's wars on terror trace back to 9/11

Global Crises

The U.S. military recently launched a plainly illegal strike on a small civilian Venezuelan boat that President Trump claims was a successful hit on “narcoterrorists.” Vice President JD Vance responded to allegations that the strike was a war crime by saying, “I don’t give a shit what you call it,” insisting this was the “highest and best use of the military.”

This is only the latest troubling development in the Trump administration’s attempt to repurpose “War on Terror” mechanisms to use the military against cartels and to expedite his much vaunted mass deportation campaign, which he says is necessary because of an "invasion" at the border.

keep readingShow less
President Trump with reporters
Top photo credit: President Donald Trump speaks with members of the media at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland on Sunday, September 7, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

Is Israel forcing Trump to be the capitulator in chief?

Middle East

President Donald Trump told reporters outside a Washington restaurant Tuesday evening that he is deeply displeased with Israel’s bombardment of Qatar, a close U.S. partner in the Persian Gulf that, at Washington’s request, has hosted Hamas’s political leadership since 2012.

“I am not thrilled about it. I am not thrilled about the whole situation,” Trump said, denying that Israel had given him advance notice. “I was very unhappy about it, very unhappy about every aspect of it,” he continued. “We’ve got to get the hostages back. But I was very unhappy with the way that went down.”

keep readingShow less
Europe Ukraine
Top image credit: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, President of Ukraine, Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the UK, and Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland, emerge from St. Mary's Palace for a press conference as part of the Coalition of the Willing meeting in Kiev, May 10 2025, Kay Nietfeld/dpa via Reuters Connect

Is Europe deliberately sabotaging Ukraine War negotiations?

Europe

After last week’s meeting of the “coalition of the willing” in Paris, 26 countries have supposedly agreed to contribute — in some fashion — to a military force that would be deployed on Ukrainian soil after hostilities have concluded.

Three weeks prior, at the Anchorage leaders’ summit press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that Ukraine’s security should be ensured as part of any negotiated settlement. But Russian officials have continued to reiterate that this cannot take the form of Western combat forces stationed in Ukraine. In the wake of last week’s meeting, Putin has upped the ante by declaring that any such troops would be legitimate targets for the Russian military.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.