Follow us on social

52143759283_cb9afd8977_o-scaled

How the US should respond if North Korea conducts another nuke test

Washington needs to look beyond the nuclear threat to work toward a sustainable peace on the peninsula.

Analysis | Asia-Pacific

Much of the recent news about North Korea has centered on the likelihood of a seventh nuclear test. Relatively little attention has been placed on the immediate and long-term goals of the United States on the Korean Peninsula — a part of the world that is technically still in a state of war seven decades after the Korean War broke out. 

A new report by the Quincy Institute titled “Active Denial: A Roadmap to a More Effective, Stabilizing, and Sustainable U.S. Defense Strategy in Asia,” offers policy recommendations to advance peace on the Korean Peninsula and curb the cycle of provocation and punishment that has defined U.S.-North Korea relations over the past three decades, while South Korea has been a junior partner to the United States.

Warnings by senior U.S. officials about a potential nuclear test have grown in recent weeks. The last time Pyongyang tested a nuclear weapon was in September 2017, following several satellite and ICBM tests that were conducted earlier that year. 

On June 7, two days after North Korea launched eight ballistic missiles, U.S. Special Representative to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Sung Kim noted that in addition to launching an unprecedented number of ballistic missiles in 2022, North Korean officials have hinted at the testing of tactical nuclear weapons, which are harder to detect than strategic weapons due to their smaller size. Ambassador Kim also warned that North Korea is preparing to conduct a nuclear test.

On June 13, Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a joint press conference with his Republic of Korea counterpart Park Jin. Secretary Blinken stated that the United States knows that the North Koreans have “done preparations for…a [nuclear] test” and that the American government is “extremely vigilant” about that possibility, as well as consulting with allies on how best to respond to such an action.  

The same day, national security adviser Jake Sullivan echoed Blinken’s assessment while also noting that Washington has communicated its concerns to Beijing. Sullivan did not mention how the Chinese side responded, nor did he offer new insights that were gleaned from that conversation about the way forward. 

On one hand, the focus on North Korea’s seemingly imminent nuclear test makes sense given its ability to undermine support for diplomacy. But over-emphasizing the nuclear threat fosters deterrence-centric solutions, as opposed to considering the broader regional context and underlying sources of North Korea’s desire to build nuclear weapons. Treating North Korea mainly as a security threat rather than as a political and diplomatic issue also overlooks steps that the United States could take to reduce potential for military confrontation between nuclear-armed countries.

The Quincy report “Active Denial”offers a case for how allies like South Korea can support a more sustainable U.S. defense posture in the region that serves the U.S.-ROK alliance’s interest in a more stable Korean Peninsula and reduces the possibility of conflict. It calls for greater U.S. support in building peace on the Korean Peninsula and in limiting further nuclear proliferation. It recommends Washington engage in sustained diplomacy with Pyongyang in order to advance long-term peace in the region. The report also suggests adjustments in the U.S. military presence in South Korea and in the U.S.–ROK alliance division of labor. For example, it recommends permanently rebasing one of the two U.S. air wings currently stationed in South Korea to elsewhere in the Asia–Pacific, given its vulnerability to attack by chemical weapons and missiles from North Korea and the relative ease with which it can be flown back to South Korea as needed.  

The report also stresses the need for the U.S.–ROK alliance to find a balance between effective deterrence and movement toward conflict resolution and peacebuilding vis-a-vis North Korea. To get there, Seoul should play a leading role in creative and multi-level diplomacy with Pyongyang, with the United States playing a supporting role conducive to inter-Korean reconciliation. As South Korean Unification Minister Kwon Young-se noted at a conference hosted by Korea Institute for National Unification last week, the Yoon administration will seek a “pragmatic approach” on North Korea through a “virtuous cycle, such as denuclearization of North Korea and the development of inter-Korean relations.” Washington’s support for such a strategy will be pivotal for its success.

Over the long-term, Washington should also be open to the possibility of not just normalization of relations but to a cooperative relationship with Pyongyang as part of closing the chapter of the Korean War and stemming the growing arms race between the two Koreas. In exchange for security guarantees, North Korea will need to take concrete, verifiable steps to declare facilities that manufacture and deliver nuclear weapons, as well as to move toward dismantling nuclear facilities. 

Rather than equate ending the Korean War with a unilateral withdrawal of all U.S. forces from South Korea, Washington should think of the peace and denuclearization process in phases, based on mutual cooperation in tension reduction and denuclearization. Ultimately, an “action-for-action” diplomatic process, as Sullivan recently called it, is preferable to the status quo of holding negotiation hostage to Pyongyang’s voluntary nuclear weapons disarmament.

A U.S. strategy on Asia based on realistic expectations and diligence in accountability on all sides will be critical for making tangible progress with North Korea, with South Korea playing a leadership role in shaping the peninsula’s future.


Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken meets with Republic of Korea Foreign Minister Park Jin at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C., on June 13, 2022. [State Department Photo by Ron Przysucha]
Analysis | Asia-Pacific
Venezuela regime change means invasion, chaos, and heavy losses
Top photo credit: U.S. Marines infiltrate the beach head as part of an amphibious demonstration at Hat Yao Beach, Kingdom of Thailand, during Cobra Gold 2014, Feb. 14 (US Marine Corps photo)

Venezuela regime change means invasion, chaos, and heavy losses

Latin America

Maximum pressure has long been President Donald Trump’s stance towards the government of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela — he slapped crippling sanctions on the country during his first term — but in recent days the administration has pushed the stakes even higher.

The Caribbean is currently hosting an astonishing quantity of American naval and air assets, including four Arleigh Burke–class destroyers, a guided missile cruiser, an attack submarine, a Marine Amphibious Ready Group, and a flight of F-35 multirole fighters.

keep readingShow less
Syria’s ticking time bomb
Syrian security forces walk together along a street, after clashes between Syrian government troops and local Druze fighters resumed in the southern Druze city of Sweida early on Wednesday, collapsing a ceasefire announced just hours earlier that aimed to put an end to days of deadly sectarian bloodshed, in Sweida, Syria July 16, 2025. REUTERS/Karam al-Masri

Syria’s ticking time bomb

Middle East

In March of this year, Laya’s world came crashing down.

Following a series of skirmishes in the coastal region of Syria, the country’s transitional government had mobilized forces to put down what it saw as a brewing rebellion among Alawites, a minority offshoot of Shia Islam and the religion of former President Bashar al-Assad. The operation quickly turned into a bloodbath.

keep readingShow less
Israel wants to pay US pastors a stipend to spread the word
Top image credit: Shutterstock AI

Israel wants to pay stipend to US pastors to spread the word

Washington Politics

A newly-created firm called Show Faith by Works is embarking on a “geofencing” campaign to target Christian churches and colleges across the American Southwest with pro-Israel advertisements. The pastors and congregations themselves are seemingly unaware of this campaign, and some have concerns with Israel’s methods to target Christians.

According to the firm’s filing under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), Show Faith by Works will “geofence the actual boundaries of every Major (sic) church in California, Arizona, Nevada, and Coloardo (sic) and all Christian Colleges during worship times” and then “track attendees and continue to target [them] with ads” on behalf of Israel. The geofencing campaign is part of a larger $3.2 million contract that also includes trying to hire celebrity spokespeople and paying pastors to produce content.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.