Follow us on social

Shutterstock_1613466775-scaled

Under What Conditions Can Diplomacy With Iran Succeed?

A diplomatic path is still open for Iran and the U.S. to resolve tensions and come to agreement.

Analysis | Washington Politics

Nearly two years have elapsed since President Donald Trump decided to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and implement a policy of “maximum pressure” on Tehran. Yet so far the long stalemate in U.S.-Iran relations characterized by a state of no full war, no peace, has not been broken, although several times Tehran and Washington have engaged in military confrontation, the latest being after Trump ordered the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani on January 3 and Iran retaliated by attacking an American military base in Iraq.

But there is no guarantee that in future the two sides will be able to avoid a full-scale military confrontation, whether by intention, miscalculation, or miscommunication. Developments inside Iran could create conditions that could provide excuses for the U.S. and even some European countries to intervene militarily in Iran under the guise of humanitarian intervention to prevent mass killings by the government as, for example, happened in Libya in 2011. Developments in Iraq, potentially leading to a resumption of civil war, could also cause a U.S.-Iran confrontation.

In short, although thus far Tehran and Washington have avoided an all-out war, there is no guarantee that they will be able to do so in future. Given the tremendous material and human costs that such a confrontation would entail for both sides and its negative fallout for the future stability of the entire Middle East, well-meaning experts, analysts, and political personalities have been advocating for diplomacy to end the current stalemate. This process would require two steps, first to engage in efforts to ease the current tensions, and second to resolve at least some of their outstanding disagreements.

What Is Needed for Diplomacy to Succeed?

Certain conditions should be present for diplomacy to succeed. The reason that previous efforts have failed was that either Iran was not willing to accept U.S. terms or the U.S. felt that it did not need to deal with Iran except entirely on its own terms. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has thus far been the only successful U.S.-Iran diplomatic exercise. But even its success was limited because the expectations of the two sides from it were not congruent. Iran basically saw it as a onetime effort dealing with a specific issues — the nuclear file — in exchange for lifting of crippling economic sanctions. The U.S., by contrast, saw it as the first step towards a much wider bargain within which Iran would make other concessions regarding a wide range of issues, from Tehran’s missile program to its support for groups such as Hizbollah.

Historically and in other contexts, diplomacy has succeeded when the following conditions have been present: First, both sides to a conflict must be convinced that there is no better alternative to a diplomatic solution and that their gains from even a partial bargain would exceed the perpetuation of a stalemate, or worse, military confrontation. Currently, neither Iran nor the United States is convinced that they will benefit from a partial bargain. Washington seems to believe that a little more pressure will bring Tehran to its knees and thus sees no benefit in making any concessions. The leadership in Tehran also seemingly believes that if it can wait out Trump, it might be able to get a better deal from his successor. Moreover, Iran’s leadership fears that by dealing with the U.S., it could alienate its most solid base of support

Second, the success of any diplomatic exercise depends on the willingness of both sides to make concessions, which, at the moment, the U.S. is not willing to do. In practice, Iran might be willing to make concessions, including the curbing of its regional allies or limiting the range of its missiles. There is also room for mutual concessions and compromises regarding issues related to Iraq and the Persian Gulf. But on the most thorny issues such as the Palestinian problem, Tehran is unlikely to make a priori concessions. Over time, and if there is a thaw in U.S.-Iran relations, Tehran’s positions on that issue, too, could change. But making any improvement in U.S.-Iran ties dependent on prior changes in Iran’s position regarding this particular problem would lead nowhere.

Third, for diplomacy to succeed, both parties should be able to declare victory, or at least to avoid appearing as the vanquished. Sadly, in the current stalemate, pride, especially of the wounded kind, has played an inordinate role. As a great power, the U.S. wants to show Iran and others in the region and beyond that it cannot get away with its defiance. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime has linked its national pride to its ability to defy the U.S. This issue being emotional and not rational, might prove even more difficult to overcome. But other countries with long histories of animosity, such as Germany and France, and England and Ireland, have not allowed the past to stand in the way of better relations.

Fourth, diplomacy is generally more successful when the two parties are more or less equal in power. Washington is more willing to treat China or even India as an equal than Iran. One reason the U.S. has treated Iran the way it has is because Tehran is weak. Meanwhile, as a weak state, Tehran worries that talking to and dealing with the U.S. could mean domination by Washington.

What is the Way Out?

If currently the odds against successful diplomacy with Iran are not favorable and are unlikely to improve, at least before the forthcoming U.S. presidential elections in November, does it mean that the path of diplomacy should be abandoned? The answer is an emphatic no. What the current situation requires is to limit expectations of what could be achieved through diplomacy. But at the very least, diplomacy, even if covert, can help prevent mistakes and accidents which might lead to a bigger confrontation. It could also lead to minor achievements that can help restore faith in the value of talk and compromise, and possibly even increase the chances of a potential future breakthrough.


Analysis | Washington Politics
Friedrich Merz
Top photo credit: German Prime Minister-in-waiting Friedrich Merz (Shutterstock.Penofoto)

German leaders miscalculated popular will for war spending

Europe

Recent polls show the center right Christian Democrats (CDU-CSU) headed by prospective chancellor Friedrich Merz losing ground against the populist right Alternative for Germany (AfD), even before the new government has been formed.

The obvious explanation is widespread popular dissatisfaction with last month’s vote pressed through the outgoing parliament by the CDU-CSU and presumptive coalition partner the SPD (with the Greens) to allow unlimited increases in defense spending. This entailed disabling the constitutional “debt brake” introduced in 2009 to curb deficits and public debt.

keep readingShow less
Bernie Sanders Chris Van Hollen
Top image credit: U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) speaks during a press conference regarding legislation that would block offensive U.S. weapons sales to Israel, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., November 19, 2024. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
Will Senate vote signal a wider shift away from Israel?

Can Bernie stop billions in new US weapons going to Israel?

Middle East

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz have been roundly criticized for the security lapse that put journalist Jeffrey Goldberg into a Signal chat where administration officials discussed bombing Houthi forces in Yemen, to the point where some, like Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) have called for their resignations.

But the focus on the process ignores the content of the conversation, and the far greater crime of continuing to provide weapons that are inflaming conflicts in the Middle East and enabling Israel’s war on Gaza, which has resulted in the deaths of over 50,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians.

keep readingShow less
Is US bombing Somalia just because it can?
Top Image Credit: The aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), foreground, leads a formation of Carrier Strike Group Five ships as Air Force B-52 Stratofortress aircraft and Navy F/A-18 Hornet aircraft pass overhead for a photo exercise during Valiant Shield 2018 in the Philippine Sea Sept. 17, 2018. The biennial, U.S. only, field-training exercise focuses on integration of joint training among the U.S. Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps. This is the seventh exercise in the Valiant Shield series that began in 2006. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Erwin Miciano)

Is US bombing Somalia just because it can?

QiOSK

U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) conducted an airstrike in Somalia against ISIS targets on Saturday, killing “multiple ISIS-Somalia operatives.” It was the eighth such strike in the short time that Trump has been in office, reflecting a quiet, but deadly American campaign in a part, of the world that remains far below the public radar.

“AFRICOM, alongside the Federal Government of Somalia and Somali Armed Forces, continues to take action to degrade ISIS-Somalia's ability to plan and conduct attacks that threaten the U.S. homeland, our forces, and our civilians abroad,” a Sunday AFRICOM press release stated.

keep readingShow less

Trump transition

Latest

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.