Update: US warnings, evacuations came only a day before attacks

Update 6/12 11PM: Israel has bombed numerous targets in Tehran and several other cities housing its nuclear program and bases, killing scientists and top military officials. Iran officials have vowed retaliation; Washington is insisting it was not involved in Israeli attacks. Please see Jim Lobe's updates here.

Update 6/12 12:45PM: CBS News is reporting that U.S. officials are aware that the Israeli military is fully ready to launch attacks on Iranian nuclear sites. An expected Iranian retaliation would be why the U.S. government announced the evacuations and voluntary departures yesterday.

CBS is also hearing from multiple sources that in the event of such action by Israel, the U.S. could play a supporting role with refueling and intelligence, but not "lead" or help bomb the Iranian sites with American munitions. There has been no "commitment" either way, however.

This led podcaster Saagar Enjeti to charge that this proves that Israel is not acting "independently" of Washington.

"The narrative of an independent Israeli strike is bunk then. This would be a US sanctioned operation and we must stand against it"

Setting everyone on edge and grasping for insight, the Trump administration issued evacuation orders for non-essential personnel at the U.S. Embassy in Iraq, and its diplomatic facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait on Wednesday.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also reportedly told FOX News that there would be voluntary departure for dependents of military personnel serving in the Central Command (CENTCOM) area of operations across the Middle East. Fox's military correspondent Jennifer Griffin quoted CENTCOM on X:

"The safety and security of our service members and their families remains our highest priority and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is monitoring the developing tension in the Middle East. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from locations across the CENTCOM AOR. CENTCOM is working in close coordination with our Department of State counterparts, as well as our Allies and partners in the region to maintain a constant state of readiness to support any number of missions around the world at any time."

Meanwhile, the UK's Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a British maritime security agency, issued its own "unusual" warning, citing “increasing regional tension” that could pose threats to ships in the region.

“UKMTO has been made aware of increased tensions within the region which could lead to an escalation of military activity having a direct impact on mariners,” the advisory said. “Vessels are advised to transit the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Straits of Hormuz with caution.”

By Wednesday night, the media was speculating widely that the administration is worried about an imminent strike by Israel on Iran. Asked about the developments at a Kennedy Center event, Trump acknowledged that U.S. citizens were being moved out of the Middle East, saying “it could be a dangerous place. ... We’ve given notice to move out; we’ll see what happens.”

“We are watching and worried,” one senior diplomat in the region told the Washington Post. “We think it’s more serious than any other time in the past.”

Observers are also wondering if the last-minute postponement of a Capitol Hill hearing tomorrow featuring CENTCOM Commander Army Gen. Michael Kurilla has anything to do with the news today. According to Stars & Stripes, the hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee was postponed less than 24-hours before its scheduled time on Thursday. Notably, this is a day after Kurilla (under questioning) acknowledged that the military was prepared to engage in an "overwhelming show of force" if Iran gets a bomb and the president directs CENTCOM to do so.

What is going on?

The warnings and evacuation orders came after Iran publicly threatened to attack U.S. bases in the Middle East if they were attacked first. This, after once-hopeful Iran nuclear deal talks seemed to hit a logjam over whether Iran would be able to pursue its right to a civilian enrichment program. Iranian officials appeared to be responding to calls from hawks in the U.S. to dismantle Iran's nuclear program by force if necessary.

"Some officials on the other side threaten conflict if negotiations don’t come to fruition. If a conflict is imposed on us … all US bases are within our reach and we will boldly target them in host countries,” Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh told reporters on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, President Trump has been quoted saying he is more pessimistic about the talks, but not explaining why.

“I don’t know,” he told the podcast Pod Force One on Monday, when asked whether he thought a deal might happen. “I’m less confident now than I would have been a couple of months ago. Something happened to them, but I am much less confident of a deal being made."

Trump repeated that Iran would be stopped from developing a nuclear weapon either way. “But it would be nicer to do it without warfare, without people dying."

Now we know Israel would prefer that the U.S and/or Israel destroy Iran's nuclear program militarily. Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government have expressed growing frustration with Trump's diplomatic path (the negotiations are headed into their sixth round of talks). Iran lashed out earlier this week when it insisted it knows where Israel's secret nuclear weapons arsenal is and threatened to strike it if they were attacked, too.

Interestingly, CNN reported Wednesday that in a phone call with Netanyahu on Monday, Trump warned against a military intervention. This might indicate Israel is more committed to action than has even been reported.

From CNN:

During their call, Trump asked Netanyahu to stop talking about an attack on Iran, the source familiar with the conversation said, and halt the leaks and reports about plans and preparations for an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Netanyahu has repeatedly pushed for a military option to stop Iran’s nuclear program. In the conversation with Trump, Netanyahu told Trump that Iran is just trying to buy time and isn’t serious about negotiations, the source said. CNN reported last month that Israel was preparing for a possible strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

No doubt the concern is Israel will go through with something, that Iran will retaliate, and the U.S. will be compelled to intervene on Israel's behalf, as it did twice since the beginning of the Gaza War in 2023. As Al-Monitor correspondent Elizabeth Hagedorn noted in an X post about the evacuations: "Former US official tells me, 'This is what we would do if we or Israel were about to go kinetic.'"

Daniel Shapiro, former State Department/DoD official, said something similar on X: "Ordered departure from US Emb Baghdad could reflect a major threat, but also is impactful as a means of signaling possible near-term military action against Iran. It's a big move, hard to reverse quickly, comes at some cost. So if signaling, you play this card when you mean it."

This article is being updated as the story develops.