Russian and Ukrainian officials appear to be making serious headway toward a peace deal following a second day of direct talks in Abu Dhabi.
One indication of progress has been the positive, if cautious, comments from leaders on both sides of the table. Rustem Umerov, the head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, described the talks as “substantive and productive,” and Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev said “things are moving forward in a good, positive direction.” Adding to the relatively cordial atmosphere was an agreement to exchange more than 300 prisoners of war, the first such swap in several months.
But the most important indicators came from outside the negotiating room. The Financial Times reported Tuesday that Ukraine has finally reached a deal to obtain security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe, satisfying a key Ukrainian demand for a post-war settlement. Under the deal, European powers agreed to intervene militarily in order to protect Ukraine in case of “persistent Russian violations of any future ceasefire agreement,” according to the FT. American forces would only join hostilities after 72 hours, if the initial efforts to stop Russian aggression failed.
The agreement could open a path to a deal that gives Ukraine security guarantees in exchange for territorial swaps with Russia, possibly including a complete Russian takeover of the Donbas, which the Kremlin considers a key war aim. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has generally expressed opposition to such a deal, but his people have begun warming up to the idea, with 40% of Ukrainians expressing support for it in a recent poll.
“This is going very slowly, but it is moving,” said Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute, adding that the current situation is “far, far better” than it was a year ago. As Lieven noted, seeming progress in direct talks has come alongside a thaw in U.S.-Russia relations, particularly when it comes to economic discussions, which could give Washington an additional carrot to incentivize Moscow at the negotiating table. This leverage could help overcome Russian skepticism toward accepting Western security guarantees for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and Russia have used their time in Abu Dhabi to forge ahead on a host of strategic issues that American officials had previously hoped to address only after securing a peace deal in Ukraine. On Thursday, the two great powers agreed to reestablish a high-level military-to-military dialogue channel that they abandoned prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The decision “provides a means for increased transparency and de-escalation” in times of crisis, the U.S. military said in a statement.
Perhaps most notable on this front was the revelation that Moscow and Washington were working on an informal arms control deal following the expiration this week of the New START Treaty, which placed caps on the number of nuclear warheads that each country can deploy. According to Axios, the two sides are pursuing an informal agreement whereby each side continues to observe the treaty’s provisions even after it expires.
Trump also appears to have neutralized his Republican skeptics in Congress. While many Republican lawmakers have expressed support for levying additional sanctions against Russia, congressional leadership has avoided scheduling votes to move such legislation forward. Even this week, Ukrainian officials received a cautious reception from Republicans as they made the case for additional sanctions on Moscow.
Lieven argued that the broader detente between the U.S. and Russia could be the key to reaching a final deal. “For the U.S. to make compromises on the wider relationship is really the only way that you can shift Russia from its tougher demands against Ukraine,” he said.
