Follow us on social

google cta
Diplomacy Watch: Is the Overton window of the Ukraine war's end game shifting?

Diplomacy Watch: Is the Overton window of the Ukraine war's end game shifting?

Boris Johnson pulled back from a previous maximalist stance signaling that perhaps what's said in private will become more public.

Analysis | Reporting | Europe
google cta
google cta

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a video conference on Monday urged the leaders of the G7 countries — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States — to back his proposal for a “special summit” aimed at implementing his 10-point plan for peace.

"I suggest that you, like other conscientious states, show your leadership — in the implementation of the peace formula as a whole or its specific points," Zelensky said.

While the G7 leaders made no specific commitments on Zelensky’s proposal, his idea that it be based on his 10-point plan is notable considering that one of its specific points reiterates Zelensky’s stance that the war will end only when Russia withdraws its forces from all of Ukraine, perhaps including Crimea, a region the plan refers to as “temporarily occupied.” 

While Ukraine’s backers in the West often defer to Zelensky and Ukrainian officials on what the war’s ultimate outcomes might be, it appears that some slight cracks are beginning to emerge.  

For example, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been one of Zelensky’s biggest supporters (and vice versa), but on Friday it appears that Johnson quietly amended his Zelensky-aligned vision for the Ukraine war’s end game. 

In a Wall Street Journal op-ed calling for more military and economic support for Ukraine, Johnson said the only way the war can end is “with Vladimir Putin’s defeat.” That means, he wrote, that “Russian forces must be pushed back to the de facto boundary of Feb. 24. There is no way Volodymyr Zelensky or the Ukrainian people could conceivably accept another outcome… .” 

Before the February 24, 2022 Russian invasion, Ukraine’s “de facto boundary” not only did not include Crimea, but it also did not include parts of the Donbas region in the east on Ukraine’s border with Russia. 

But this is a clear shift in Johnson’s thinking. Just last month, also in a Journal op-ed, the former prime minister — who reportedly worked to scuttle a deal back in April similar to the one he proposed on Friday — called the idea of Putin keeping parts of the Donbas “repugnant.” 

The Guardian’s Patrick Wintour wrote this week that Johnson’s op-ed last Friday was “little noticed” and “startling,” noting that Henry Kissinger “made a similar proposal, arguing Russia should only be required to disgorge territory gained since February this year. Land occupied nearly a decade ago, including Crimea, ‘could be the subject of a negotiation after a ceasefire.’”

Wintour adds that “Johnson was making an admission made in private by many diplomats that a militarily enforced return of the Crimean peninsula — which was annexed by Russia in 2014 in a move rejected by the UN — to full Ukrainian control is fraught with risk.”

Meanwhile, a new poll this week conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Moscow-based Levada Center found that 53 percent of Russians favor starting negotiations with Ukraine to end the war. That number jumps to 62 percent when respondents were provided with costs Russia has endured. 

Regarding specific outcomes of any future talks, the survey found that 78 percent of Russians said that returning Crimea to Ukraine would be unacceptable and 66 percent said the same for the eastern Donbas region. 

The Washington Post called the Levada Center “one of Russia’s most widely respected independent polling companies” and that “the survey’s authors said earlier this year they found no evidence that respondents were unwilling to share their true feelings with interviewers."

***

In other diplomatic news related to the war in Ukraine:

Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan spoke with both Zelensky and Putin this week regarding the Black Sea grain export agreement, Reuters reported. Russia is reportedly seeking better guarantees on its exports while Ukraine wants more ports open for shipping. 

French President Emmanuel Macron hosted a conference in Paris this week, according to the Associated Press, where allied countries and other international organizations pledged to provide Ukraine with more than $1 billion in aid to help the war torn country endure a long winter amid constant Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure. 

Suedi Murekezi, a U.S. Air Force veteran who was captured by Russian forces in June, was released as part of a larger prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia, according to the Washington Post. Murekezi had been living in Ukraine since 2018 and was arrested for allegedly taking part in pro-Ukraine protests. 

U.S. State Department news:

State Department spokesman Ned Price on Tuesday criticized the Russians for rejecting Zelensky’s call to withdraw its troops from Ukraine by Christmas. “That vision of a just peace wasn’t met with a reciprocal vision for a just peace on the part of the Russian Federation,” Price said. “Instead, it was met with bombs and missiles raining down on Ukrainian towns and cities, a continuation of the brutal escalation and assault that Russia’s forces have undertaken against civilian targets… .” Price added that the Russian response is “a very clear acknowledgement that Russia is in no mood for constructive dialogue… .”


Dear RS readers: It has been an extraordinary year and our editing team has been working overtime to make sure that we are covering the current conflicts with quality, fresh analysis that doesn’t cleave to the mainstream orthodoxy or take official Washington and the commentariat at face value. Our staff reporters, experts, and outside writers offer top-notch, independent work, daily. Please consider making a tax-exempt, year-end contribution to Responsible Statecraftso that we can continue this quality coverage — which you will find nowhere else — into 2026. Happy Holidays!

google cta
Analysis | Reporting | Europe
USS Defiant trump class
Top photo credit: Design image of future USS Defiant (Naval Sea Systems Command/US military)

Trump's big, bad battleship will fail

Military Industrial Complex

President Trump announced on December 22 that the Navy would build a new Trump-class of “battleships.” The new ships will dwarf existing surface combatant ships. The first of these planned ships, the expected USS Defiant, would be more than three times the size of an existing Arleigh Burke-class destroyer.

Predictably, a major selling point for the new ships is that they will be packed full of all the latest technology. These massive new battleships will be armed with the most sophisticated guns and missiles, to include hypersonics and eventually nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. The ships will also be festooned with lasers and will incorporate the latest AI technology.

keep readingShow less
Does Israel really still need a 'qualitative military edge' ?
An Israeli Air Force F-35I Lightning II “Adir” approaches a U.S. Air Force 908th Expeditionary Refueling Squadron KC-10 Extender to refuel during “Enduring Lightning II” exercise over southern Israel Aug. 2, 2020. While forging a resolute partnership, the allies train to maintain a ready posture to deter against regional aggressors. (U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Patrick OReilly)

Does Israel really still need a 'qualitative military edge' ?

Middle East

On November 17, 2025, President Donald Trump announced that he would approve the sale to Saudi Arabia of the most advanced US manned strike fighter aircraft, the F-35. The news came one day before the visit to the White House of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has sought to purchase 48 such aircraft in a multibillion-dollar deal that has the potential to shift the military status quo in the Middle East. Currently, Israel is the only other state in the region to possess the F-35.

During the White House meeting, Trump suggested that Saudi Arabia’s F-35s should be equipped with the same technology as those procured by Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly sought assurances from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who sought to walk back Trump’s comment and reiterated a “commitment that the United States will continue to preserve Israel’s qualitative military edge in everything related to supplying weapons and military systems to countries in the Middle East.”

keep readingShow less
Think a $35B gas deal will thaw Egypt toward Israel? Not so fast.
Top image credit: Miss.Cabul via shutterstock.com

Think a $35B gas deal will thaw Egypt toward Israel? Not so fast.

Middle East

The Trump administration’s hopes of convening a summit between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi either in Cairo or Washington as early as the end of this month or early next are unlikely to materialize.

The centerpiece of the proposed summit is the lucrative expansion of natural gas exports worth an estimated $35 billion. This mega-deal will pump an additional 4 billion cubic meters annually into Egypt through 2040.

keep readingShow less
google cta
Want more of our stories on Google?
Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.