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Biden to move ahead with $23B weapons sale to UAE

A boon for weapons companies, the sale of F-35s, drones, and bombs is controversial but not enough to keep it from happening.

Analysis | Middle East
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According to a State Department spokesperson, the Biden administration has taken the hold off a controversial sale of F-35's, drones and bombs — $23 billion worth — to the United Arab Emirates. The $23 billion sale was first crafted by the Trump administration as a sweetener for the monarchy's agreement to normalize relations with Israel.

Another Trump-era package — $8 billion worth of weapons for UAE and Saudi Arabia approved by Congress in late 2019 under an emergency declaration, is still under review.

The news won't be welcome in quarters where the weapons are seen as a reward for the UAE's human rights violations, externally in the Yemen War and in the fighting in Libya, but also at home, against its own people. They are also considered a tether between the United States and the Gulf state, at a time when Washington is supposedly seeking ways to extricate itself from the region and begin to let these Arab states — long seen as dependents — to start managing their own security.

Most importantly, critics which include members of Congress as well as human rights groups, have been waiting for real action when it comes to Biden's pledge to help end the war in Yemen. While the UAE claimed to withdraw its forces from Yemen at the end of 2019 it has continued to occupy key ports, airports, and infrastructure, while also funding separatist fights. “If the Biden administration is serious about addressing the factors driving violence in Yemen, the role of the UAE cannot be ignored,” Annelle Sheline, Quincy Institute Middle East expert, has pointed out.

“The weapons we sold to Saudi Arabia and UAE have been used to kill schoolchildren, transferred to extremist militias, and fueled a dangerous arms race in the Middle East," tweeted Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy back in January when members were trying to actively stop the sales.

Despite it's dark role in the region's violence — another reason why we are anchored there interminably — the UAE has made some 39 deals with the United States since 2009, bringing the total of all its weapons sales, including the pending agreements, to $59 billion, according to researcher William Hartung at the Center for International Policy.

But don't worry, the State Department says the new weapons won't be delivered until after 2025 and until then "we will also continue to reinforce with the UAE and all recipients of US defense articles and services that US-origin defense equipment must be adequately secured and used in a manner that respects human rights and fully complies with the laws of armed conflict.” 


Tucson, USA — March 2, 2018: A U.S. Air Force F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (Lightning II) jet at Davis Monthan Air Force Base. This F-35 is assigned to Luke Air Force Base. (Michael Fitzsimmons / Shutterstock.com)
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Analysis | Middle East
Why Tehran may have time on its side
Top image credit: Iranian army military personnel stand at attention under a banner featuring an image of an Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) during a military parade commemorating the anniversary of Army Day outside the Shrine of Iran's late leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the south of Tehran, Iran, on April 18, 2025. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto)

Why Tehran may have time on its side

QiOSK

A provocative calculus by Anusar Farrouqui (“policytensor”) has been circulating on X and in more exhaustive form on the author’s Substack. It purports to demonstrate a sobering reality: in a high-intensity U.S.-Iran conflict, the United States may be unable to suppress Iranian drone production quickly enough to prevent a strategically consequential period of regional devastation.

The argument is framed through a quantitative lens, carrying the seductive appeal of mathematical precision. It arranges variables—such as U.S. sortie rates and degradation efficiency against Iranian repair cycles and rebuild speeds—to suggest a "sustainable firing rate." The implication is that Iran could maintain a persistent strike capability long enough to exhaust American political patience, forcing Washington toward a premature declaration of success or an unfavorable ceasefire.

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Will Democrats pop Trump's $50 billion trial balloon for war?
Top image credit: Sens. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) sit look on during a congressional hearing in January, 2025. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Sipa USA)

Will Democrats pop Trump's $50 billion trial balloon for war?

Washington Politics

On Wednesday, Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) told CNN that he would support new funding for the U.S. war with Iran — but only if Israel and Arab Gulf states help pay for it.

“We’re using our taxpayer money to protect those countries,” Gallego said. “We’re using our men to protect these countries. They need to throw in and have skin in the game too.”

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Top photo credit: Polymarket logo (Shutterstock/PJ McDonald) and Scene following an airstrike on an Iranian police centre damaging residential buildings around it in Niloofar square in central Tehran on march 1, 2026. (Hamid Vakili/Parspix/ABACAPRESS.COM)

Prediction markets are a national security threat

Latest

Hours before an Israeli attack in Tehran killed Ayatollah Khamenei, an account on the prediction market Polymarket made over half a million dollars wagering that Iran’s Supreme Leader would vacate office before 3/31. That account, named “Magamyman,” was not the only one to cash in on the attacks.

Half a dozen Polymarket accounts made over $1.2M betting that the U.S. “strikes Iran by February 28, 2026.” Those accounts were allegedly paid for through cryptocurrency wallets that had previously not been funded prior to Feb. 27. Overall, prediction market users bet over $255M on markets related to the attacks in Iran on the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket alone.

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