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Donald Trump

Trump's wise, bold Syria reset

Lifting sanctions won't be easy but his announcement — and brief meeting with al-Sharaa today — is more evidence of Israel's waning influence

Analysis | Middle East

President Trump kicked off his Gulf tour this week in Saudi Arabia by delivering a speech at the Saudi Arabia Investment Forum on Tuesday, in which he announced the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Syria.

Then on Wednesday morning, local time, he met briefly with Syria's President Ahmed al-Sharaa on the sidelines of the regional summit — the first such meeting of Syrian and American leaders in 25 years.

"After discussing the situation in Syria with the Crown Prince [Mohammed bin Salman (MbS)] and also with President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan of Turkey, who called me the other day and asked for a very similar thing ... I will be ordering the cessation of sanctions against Syria in order to give them a chance at greatness," declared Trump on Tuesday to his audience, which responded with a standing ovation.

Describing the U.S. sanctions as “brutal and crippling,” Trump went on to say that now is the time for the Syrians “to shine” and he wished the war-torn country “good luck.”

Implemented in mid-2020, the Caesar Syrian Civilian Protection Act (a.k.a. the Caesar Act) constitutes the most stringent U.S. sanctions ever imposed on Syria. These derivative sanctions have been strangling the Syrian economy, both before and after Bashar al-Assad’s fall. The lifting of U.S. sanctions marks a significant shift in Washington’s approach to Syria a little more than five months into the post-Assad era.

Trump's meeting with Sharaa — described in papers Wednesday as an "encounter" — took place after the new Syrian leader paid his first trip to Bahrain since Assad’s ouster. The last time the presidents of the U.S. and Syria met in person was in 2000, when Bill Clinton and Hafez al-Assad were in Switzerland discussing efforts to broker an Israeli-Syrian peace deal.

“This indicates that Trump is willing to break with the precedent that has been set by the U.S. since the fall of the regime and introduction of [Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)] leadership, entertaining not only direct engagement, but a monumental shift in U.S. Syria policy through sanctions relief,” Caroline Rose, a director at New Lines Institute, told RS.

Even if just a "hello" to Sharaa, who remains on Washington’s “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” list, this illustrates how “Trump is open to pragmatism when there’s a regional consensus,” according to Francesco Salesio Schiavi, an Italian analyst and Middle East expert, who spoke to RS.

“It reflects a shift from doctrinal isolation to transactional engagement, especially if Sharaa is seen as a potential bulwark against Iran and a vehicle for stabilizing post-conflict Syria,” he added.

“While this is far from formal recognition, I think it plants the seeds for a phased normalization process, starting with limited contact and possibly leading to re-engagement on counterterrorism, reconstruction, and border security, provided Sharaa can credibly distance himself from his militant past,” commented Schiavi.

This move on Trump’s part speaks to the extent to which Turkey and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have significant influence with the current U.S. administration. Notably, Israel, which is extremely skeptical of the Sunni Islamist leadership in Damascus that took power late last year, has been lobbying the Trump administration to avoid moves that could legitimize Syria’s new government or ease the pressure that it is currently under. Thus, Trump’s decision to disregard Israeli interests on this issue fits into a trend that has been emerging whereby Trump is increasingly sidelining Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to align U.S. foreign policy more closely with Ankara, Doha, and Riyadh.

The administration’s approach to diplomacy with Iran, the pact with the Houthis, the de-linking of possible U.S. support for Saudi Arabia’s nuclear ambitions and a Washington-Riyadh defense treaty from Israeli normalization, and the securing of Edan Alexander’s release through direct U.S.-Hamas talks all underscored this overall pivot away from an Israel-centered Middle East foreign policy.

“After almost six months of hard resistance against sanctions relief and direct engagement from cabinet members, congressional voices, and advisors, the fact that this policy shift occurred within less than 24 hours when Trump touched down in Riyadh signals the large weight that the Crown Prince MbS wields over Trump’s decision-making in the Middle East,” explained Rose.

“MbS was successful in encouraging Trump to open the ‘flood gates’ of relief efforts and allow both Saudi Arabia and Qatar to lead these initiatives for reconstruction — efforts that were blocked by U.S. sanctions and non-engagement,” she added.

The fact that the driving force was ultimately MbS — alongside the influence of advisers like Steve Witkoff, pressure from President Erdoğan, and some competition on the part of France whose president hosted Sharaa last week — highlights the extent of Trump’s flexibility on Middle East policy.

Trump has signaled his desire to offer Syria an opportunity to begin its long journey of reconstruction and redevelopment, which will require luring a massive amount of foreign investment. Nonetheless, because many elected officials in Washington remain extremely suspicious toward the HTS-dominated government in Damascus, certain aspects of sanctions relief which require congressional approval might not necessarily move ahead as quickly as Trump and his friends in Turkey and the Gulf would like.

Regardless of how sanctions relief plays out in practice, Trump making this bold announcement and meeting Sharaa in Riyadh are major wins for the Saudi leadership, which has proven to be an effective bridge between post-Assad Syria and the U.S. With Saudi Arabia taking the lead within the GCC when it comes to outreach to the new Syrian government, the Kingdom has demonstrated its ability to use its influence to advance interests shared by all the Gulf Arab monarchies amid a period of regional crises and intensified geopolitical instability worldwide.

“The Trump-Sharaa meeting in Riyadh reflects Saudi Arabia’s capacity to align U.S. policy with shared strategic goals, notably containing Iran and managing the risks posed by HTS. For Trump, the Saudi setting offers political cover, framing the engagement as part of a broader Arab-led initiative rather than a unilateral move,” Schiavi told RS.

Trump’s decision to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria marks a bold reset. Originally designed to isolate and squeeze Syria’s Ba’athist government, the argument in favor of maintaining the Assad-era sanctions following the change of regime late last year has grown unconvincing. Trump now extends not just economic relief but a political overture — offering Syria’s Sunni Islamist leadership a chance to gain greater recognition and legitimacy in the eyes of Western leaders and statesmen, reflecting Trump’s characteristically transactional foreign policy approach.

If Sharaa, in this upcoming period, delivers on access to resources, economic openings, and regional stability, Trump may come to find the former militant as a leader whom he can make many deals with. This factor is particularly important within the context of a possible complete withdrawal of American military forces from Syria. Under that scenario, the White House would have greater incentive to foster positive relations with whichever government holds power in Damascus given that the U.S. would lack any presence on the ground.

In a wider context, great power competition probably played a significant role in Trump’s decision. Continuing to strangle Syria with U.S. sanctions would only open the door to China and Russia to gain greater clout in the country, particularly in the domains of defense and reconstruction.

Ultimately, although certain voices in the U.S. will inevitably find Trump’s move controversial and reckless while pointing to Sharaa’s extremist past, Trump is, to his credit, choosing to be pragmatic above all else.


Top image credit: U.S. President Donald Trump attends the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 13, 2025. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
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Donald Trump’s recent outburst against Vladimir Putin — accusing the Russian leader of "throwing a pile of bullsh*t at us" and threatening devastating new sanctions — might be just another Trumpian tantrum.

The president is known for abrupt reversals. Or it could be a bargaining tactic ahead of potential Ukraine peace talks. But there’s a third, more troubling possibility: establishment Republican hawks and neoconservatives, who have been maneuvering to hijack Trump’s “America First” agenda since his return to office, may be exploiting his frustration with Putin to push for a prolonged confrontation with Russia.

Trump’s irritation is understandable. Ukraine has accepted his proposed ceasefire, but Putin has refused, making him, in Trump’s eyes, the main obstacle to ending the war.

Putin’s calculus is clear. As Ted Snider notes in the American Conservative, Russia is winning on the battlefield. In June, it captured more Ukrainian territory and now threatens critical Kyiv’s supply lines. Moscow also seized a key lithium deposit critical to securing Trump’s support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone strikes have intensified.

Putin seems convinced his key demands — Ukraine’s neutrality, territorial concessions in the Donbas and Crimea, and a downsized Ukrainian military — are more achievable through war than diplomacy.

Yet his strategy empowers the transatlantic “forever war” faction: leaders in Britain, France, Germany, and the EU, along with hawks in both main U.S. parties. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claims that diplomacy with Russia is “exhausted.” Europe’s war party, convinced a Russian victory would inevitably lead to an attack on NATO (a suicidal prospect for Moscow), is willing to fight “to the last Ukrainian.” Meanwhile, U.S. hawks, including liberal interventionist Democrats, stoke Trump’s ego, framing failure to stand up to Putin’s defiance as a sign of weakness or appeasement.

Trump long resisted this pressure. Pragmatism told him Ukraine couldn’t win, and calling it “Biden’s war” was his way of distancing himself, seeking a quick exit to refocus on China, which he has depicted as Washington’s greater foreign threat. At least as important, U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine has been unpopular with his MAGA base.

But his June strikes on Iran may signal a hawkish shift. By touting them as a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program (despite Tehran’s refusal so far to abandon uranium enrichment), Trump may be embracing a new approach to dealing with recalcitrant foreign powers: offer a deal, set a deadline, then unleash overwhelming force if rejected. The optics of “success” could tempt him to try something similar with Russia.

This pivot coincides with a media campaign against restraint advocates within the administration like Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon policy chief who has prioritized China over Ukraine and also provoked the opposition of pro-Israel neoconservatives by warning against war with Iran. POLITICO quoted unnamed officials attacking Colby for wanting the U.S. to “do less in the world.” Meanwhile, the conventional Republican hawk Marco Rubio’s influence grows as he combines the jobs of both secretary of state and national security adviser.

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Nuclear deterrence rules out direct military action — even Biden, far more invested in Ukraine than Trump, avoided that risk. Instead, Trump ally Sen.Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), another establishment Republican hawk, is pushing a 500% tariff on nations buying Russian hydrocarbons, aiming to sever Moscow from the global economy. Trump seems supportive, although the move’s feasibility and impact are doubtful.

China and India are key buyers of Russian oil. China alone imports 12.5 million barrels daily. Russia exports seven million barrels daily. China could absorb Russia’s entire output. Beijing has bluntly stated it “cannot afford” a Russian defeat, ensuring Moscow’s economic lifeline remains open.

The U.S., meanwhile, is ill-prepared for a tariff war with China. When Trump imposed 145% tariffs, Beijing retaliated by cutting off rare earth metals exports, vital to U.S. industry and defense. Trump backed down.

At the G-7 summit in Canada last month, the EU proposed lowering price caps on Russian oil from $60 a barrel to $45 a barrel as part of its 18th sanctions package against Russia. Trump rejected the proposal at the time but may be tempted to reconsider, given his suggestion that more sanctions may be needed. Even if Washington backs the measure now, however, it is unlikely to cripple Russia’s war machine.

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Central Asia itself is itself emerging as a new battleground. In May 2025, the EU has celebrated its first summit with Central Asian nations in Uzbekistan, with a heavy focus on developing the Middle Corridor, a route for transportation of energy and critical raw materials that would bypass Russia. In that context, the EU has committed €10 billion in support of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

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