Gulf states react cautiously to the ‘Taliban 2.0’
While it’s still unclear how Saudi Arabia and the UAE will respond, Qatar may take on a mediator role.
Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics, a geopolitical risk consultancy based in Washington, DC. His research interests include geopolitical and security trends in the Arabian Peninsula and the broader Middle East. Mr. Cafiero is a regular contributor to the Middle East Institute, Al Monitor, Inside Arabia, and New Arab. He frequently appears on Al Jazeera, TRT World, BBC Persian, and other networks as a commentator. Mr. Cafiero has taken part in dozens of closed-door meetings with high-ranking government officials, ambassadors, and other diplomats in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Throughout his career, he has spoken about Persian Gulf-related issues at conferences and delivered lectures on the region in Egypt, Slovenia, and the United States. From 2014-2015, Mr. Cafiero was an analyst at Kroll, an investigative due diligence consultancy. He received an M.A. in International Relations from the University of San Diego.
While it’s still unclear how Saudi Arabia and the UAE will respond, Qatar may take on a mediator role.
Regional stability, friction between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and a mutual need for economic development all contribute to Saudi-Oman rapprochement.
Israel has improved its relationship with the UAE, but what about other Gulf countries?
The Biden administration has yet to offer a clear path but its options are limited.