Follow us on social

Anti-war sentiment has Germany's major parties on the run

Anti-war sentiment has Germany's major parties on the run

Populist challenge to Ukraine policy not quelled as SPD squeaks by in party stronghold of Brandenburg

Analysis | Europe

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing Social Democrats barely squeaked by in its stronghold of Brandenburg this weekend, highlighting the increasing influence of the national populist Alternative for Germany on the right and the upstart populist Sahra Wagenknecht Union (BSW) on the left.

The closely watched state election on September 22 saw Scholz’s SPD win 30.9% to edge past AfD at 29.2%. As in the September 1 state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, BSW finished in double digits, in this case in third place with 13.5%, more than the Christian Democrats (CDU) at 12.1%.

These four parties — SPD, AfD, BSW, CDU — alone won seats in the legislature. Two of these four parties oppose German military aid for Ukraine. The SPD, BSW and AfD outperformed their results in the last elections (2019), while the CDU fell short, and Greens and the Left (Die Linke) suffered major collapse compared to the previous elections.

This was the third and last state election held this month in the former East Germany and the last state election till next spring. The SPD had much to lose: they have led governing coalitions in Brandenburg for the 34 years since reunification. The incumbent governor (Ministerpräsident) Dietmar Woidke (SPD) has served for 11 years. A defeat in this SPD stronghold would have shaken further the fragile national governing coalition headed by Chancellor Scholz.

The state of Brandenburg, surrounding but not including the capital Berlin, has a much higher profile nationally than Saxony and Thuringia, where elections on September 8 showed striking gains by AfD and BSW, which are both opposed to German military support for Ukraine. In the lead up to the Brandenburg election, the German press has speculated that Scholz might have been forced out by SPD leadership if the party failed to win the Brandenburg election.

In these scenarios, the Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, by far the most popular national SPD figure, would have replaced Scholz at the helm of the SPD, triggering early national elections, otherwise slated for September 2025.

Governor Dietmar Woidke enjoys broad popularity in Brandenburg, and cannily avoided involving Chancellor Olaf Scholz in his successful campaign. Over the last weeks of the contest, with polls showing AfD leading SPD by several points, Woidke mobilized voter support by pledging not to serve again as governor unless SPD finished first.

This high-risk gambit worked, and it also allowed Scholz to avoid a destabilizing impact on his leadership, even though his two coalition partners — Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats — did not win seats in Brandenburg. In an exit poll, 52% of those who said they had voted for SPD said they did so because of Woidke. The huge voter turnout — 72.9% — may also reflect the outpouring of support for Woidke to remain in office.

Woidke could have led a majority coalition (without AfD) without a first-place finish. Furthermore, his come-from-behind victory has perhaps slowed the momentum of AfD and taken pressure off Scholz and the unpopular coalition he leads. However, the weak fourth place showing for the center-right Christian Democrats, which along with the Greens, had been in coalition with Woidke’s SPD in Brandenburg, is a setback for the CDU and its leader Friedrich Merz.

The Greens’ failure to win any seats and the strong third place finish for BSW do not auger well for national coalition building in next year’s federal elections. As has happened in Saxony and Thuringia, the participation of BSW in Brandenburg’s governing coalition seems difficult to avoid. (Together SPD and CDU fall one seat short of a majority.)

The national SPD and its leader Olaf Scholz have won a reprieve, but there is little to rejoice about in these results, given the still quite strong result for AfD. The challenge of forming a coalition in Brandenburg with Wagenknecht’s BSW lies ahead. On September 8, a week after the very weak showing of the SPD in Saxony and Thuringia, Scholz urged a renewed diplomatic effort to end the war in Ukraine.

This could be interpreted as a gesture to help Woidke defend SPD’s leadership in Brandenburg against the two antiwar parties, AfD and BSW. The BSW has made opposition to further military support for Ukraine and opposition to proposed US missile deployments in Germany a condition for their participation in governing coalitions.


Brandenburg AfD top candidate, Hans Christoph Berndt, Dr Alice Weidel, AfD, Germany, Potsdam, State of Brandenburg, State election 2024, AfD Brandenburg election party (MAGO/Metodi Popow via Reuters Connect)

Analysis | Europe
Trade review process could rock the calm in US-Mexico relations
Top image credit: Rawpixel.com and Octavio Hoyos via shutterstock.com

Trade review process could rock the calm in US-Mexico relations

North America

One of the more surprising developments of President Trump’s tenure in office thus far has been the relatively calm U.S. relationship with Mexico, despite expectations that his longstanding views on trade, immigration, and narcotics would lead to a dramatic deterioration.

Of course, Mexico has not escaped the administration’s tariff onslaught and there have been occasional diplomatic setbacks, but the tenor of ties between Trump and President Claudia Sheinbaum has been less fraught than many had anticipated. However, that thaw could be tested soon by economic disagreements as negotiations open on a scheduled review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA).

keep readingShow less
Trump Rubio
Top image credit: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (right) is seen in the Oval Office with US President Donald Trump (left) during a meeting with the King of Jordan, Abdullah II Ibn Al-Hussein in the Oval Office the White House in Washington DC on Tuesday, February 11, 2025. Credit: Aaron Schwartz / Pool/Sipa USA via REUTERS
The US-Colombia drug war alliance is at a breaking point

Trump poised to decertify Colombia

Latin America

It appears increasingly likely that the Trump administration will move to "decertify" Colombia as a partner in its fight against global drug trafficking for the first time in 30 years.

The upcoming determination, due September 15, could trigger cuts to hundreds of millions of dollars in bilateral assistance, visa restrictions on Colombian officials, and sanctions on the country's financial system under current U.S. law. Decertification would strike a major blow to what has been Washington’s top security partner in the region as it struggles with surging coca production and expanding criminal and insurgent violence.

keep readingShow less
Trump Vance Rubio
Top image credit: President Donald Trump meets with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance before a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Monday, August 18, 2025, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

The roots of Trump's wars on terror trace back to 9/11

Global Crises

The U.S. military recently launched a plainly illegal strike on a small civilian Venezuelan boat that President Trump claims was a successful hit on “narcoterrorists.” Vice President JD Vance responded to allegations that the strike was a war crime by saying, “I don’t give a shit what you call it,” insisting this was the “highest and best use of the military.”

This is only the latest troubling development in the Trump administration’s attempt to repurpose “War on Terror” mechanisms to use the military against cartels and to expedite his much vaunted mass deportation campaign, which he says is necessary because of an "invasion" at the border.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.