DRC conflict: Trump's first big challenge in Africa

Among the challenges facing newly appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio is the recent explosion in the long-simmering conflict between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the rebel group known as M23 — which, according to UN experts, is backed by Rwanda.

Rubio spoke via phone on January 28 with Rwandan President Paul Kagame, who has consistently refused to acknowledge his country’s role in supporting the armed group. Rubio took a steady tone in his conversation with the Rwandan leader, saying that “the United States is deeply troubled by escalation of the ongoing conflict in eastern DRC,” and “urged an immediate ceasefire in the region, and for all parties to respect sovereign territorial integrity.”

Other than calling the conflict “a very serious problem” when responding to a question about it during a press conference held Thursday morning following the crash of a helicopter and airplane over the Potomac River in Washington, D.C., President Trump has not publicly commented on the conflict.

France, a close U.S. ally, has taken a firmer stance against Rwanda’s role in the conflict. The country is preparing to present a resolution before the UN Security Council naming Rwanda, which has around 4,000 troops in the country, as the backer of the M23 rebel group, and blaming the Rwandan government for the recent escalation of tensions in eastern Congo.

As it relates to Rwanda’s support for M23, French Ambassador to the UN Nicolas de Rivière said “it's time to call a cat a cat,” and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said “France strongly condemns the offensive led by the M23, backed by the Rwandan armed forces.” Through a spokesperson, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres also pointed the finger at Rwanda, and called “on the Rwanda Defence Forces to cease support to the M23 and withdraw from DRC territory.”

Unquestionably the quickest way to end this conflict is to pressure Rwanda to end its support for the M23 rebel group. The first step in doing so is to publicly acknowledge this support. The new U.S. administration should therefore follow France’s lead and publicly condemn Rwanda’s support for M23. Doing so would not be a change in U.S. policy, but would rather be a continuation of the policy of the previous administration.

In recent days, M23 rebels have made substantial headway in the North Kivu province in eastern DRC, and have captured the provincial capital of Goma.

Goma — a city of 2 million people — is a major center for the humanitarian sector, which has descended onto the city in recent years to support those fleeing conflict, many from M23 militiamen.

The fall of Goma comes just days after M23 rebels captured the city of Sake, which sits about 14 miles northwest of the provincial capital. Sake has also served as a safe haven for many years for civilians looking to escape rebel attacks.

In a dramatic blow to the government’s efforts to maintain control over North Kivu, Peter Cirimwami, who served as the military governor of North Kivu province beginning in September 2023, was killed by rebels on January 23. The governor went to the front lines as a sign of support of “les wazalendos,” a local militia fighting in support of the Congolese government.

The losses of both Sake and Goma are substantial. Sake is home to a base housing troops for the regional military mission, called the SADC Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC), of which South Africa is the major player — about 2,900 of SAMIDRC’s troops are South African.

The sudden increase in violence in the country’s east has led large protests to sweep across DRC’s capital Kinshasa in recent days. Protestors have rioted in front of several embassies, including those of Rwanda, Belgium, France, and the United States. Many Congolese taking part in the protests accuse the international community of not putting enough pressure on Rwanda to stop backing M23.

This most recent aggravation in tensions comes just over a month after a near diplomatic breakthrough failed to materialize. Molly Phee, the assistant secretary of state for African affairs during the Biden administration, said in an exit interview with AFP that the United States sought to broker a peace accord between Rwanda and the DRC during Biden’s trip to Angola in early December. To serve as an incentive, Biden’s team suggested expanding the Lobito Corridor — a rail and infrastructure project partially funded by the United States — into eastern DRC.

According to those familiar with the matter, the Biden administration’s offer was a nonstarter for Rwandan President Paul Kagame, who would have preferred the corridor to be expanded into his country instead, while also preferably having trade to and from Rwanda bypass Congo entirely.

A meeting scheduled to take place in mid-December in Angola between Kagame and DRC President Felix Tshisekedi to discuss this conflict was canceled at the last moment after Kagame conditioned any peace deal on the DRC separately meeting and negotiating with M23 rebels, which Tshisekedi refused to do. While the DRC has complained that Rwanda is backing M23 rebels, Kagame has leveled similar accusations against his interlocutor, accusing the DRC of supporting the rebel group Les Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), which is fighting against the Rwandan government.

By supporting M23, Rwanda hopes to gain access to an immense abundance of critical resources in the area, including gold. It’s also seeking to use M23 to fight against armed groups it believes threaten its security, such as FDLR.

As M23 has closed in on Goma, armed clashes intensified. Since Friday, 13 South African soldiers have been killed, as well as three Malawians and one Uruguayan who were part of the UN mission.

South African Defense Minister Angie Motshekga has been in close communication with DRC officials during this latest set of attacks, and traveled to the country to strategize with DRC military and government personnel. Among those she met with include UN peacekeeping forces part of MONUSCO, which just last month was extended by the UN for another year.

Although South Africa’s military presence in the DRC is unpopular among the wider South African public, the country’s government has shown firm support for the DRC’s cause, with Motshekga telling a South African television network as she was departing Kinshasa that “peace has no price”.

The United States should be incentivized to end this war before it grows into a regional conflict, which would risk engaging major African and international powers in armed aggression against each other.

Economic integration is critical for a region whose infrastructure is below global standards and whose economies are largely disjointed. Similar to his predecessor, Trump’s team should begin by considering ways in which the Lobito Corridor can be used as an incentive for Rwanda to end its support for M23.

Conditioning the expansion of the rail and road network into Rwanda on Kagame ending all support for M23 and removing its troops from the DRC, could be a sufficiently strong enough carrot to incentivize peace talks.

Doing so is also beneficial for the United States beyond simply ending hostilities before they grow into a regional war. Rwanda has a heavy concentration of raw minerals, such as tin ore, tungsten, and gold. Bringing these resources into the global market — as the EU sought to do in 2024 through its own Memorandum of Understanding — is yet another reason for the Trump team to use Lobito as a bargaining chip to end this conflict.