Congress to return on a anti-China jag, and more

Congress is set to return to session next week and with the November elections and the holidays right around the corner, it is possible that some controversial or significant pieces of foreign policy-related legislation won’t get touched until the new year.

With that said, lawmakers are expected to push legislation related to China and Ukraine spending, with the massive annual defense appropriations coming, as well as its yearly authorization, otherwise known as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, political games in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee have stalled the introduction of any new legislation in the Senate.

Currently in contention is a Republican bill set to sanction the International Criminal Court (ICC) in response to the court issuing arrest warrants against members of the Israeli government. Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) is refusing to sign off on any other legislation or nominations until this bill is moved forward, with the necessary agreement from Democrats. The House passed the bill with bipartisan support, but the White House reportedly opposes the measure.

The ICC sanctions bill may see movement later in the year, but Senate Democrats say they would rather support a “bipartisan” version.

“Unfortunately, the Biden administration has not engaged in a full-throated opposition to this maneuver, suggesting that perhaps there are ‘other ways’ to punish the ICC short of what Republicans are proposing,” noted Bill Hartung, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute.

Hartung added that “we need prominent leaders in Washington to truly stand for the ‘rules-based international order’ they reference ad nauseum by standing back and letting the ICC do its job on this urgent issue."

Various anti-China measures could see some action in September. “The House will be voting on a series of bills to empower the next administration to hit our enemies’ economies on day one,” said GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson at a recent Hudson Institute event. “We’ll build our sanctions package, punish the Chinese military firms that provide material support to Russia and Iran, and we’ll consider options to restrict outbound investments.”

Among these bills, according to recent reporting, are the End Chinese Dominance of Electric Vehicles in America Act of 2024, which restricts the clean vehicle tax credit to those companies whose electric cars feature domestically manufactured batteries. Additionally, the Protecting American Agriculture from Foreign Adversaries Act would make it harder for foreign nationals to buy farmland in America.

Two other bills, reported by Punchbowl News on Labor Day, include:

– DHS Restrictions on Confucius Institutes and Chinese Entities of Concern Act introduced by Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas), which would bar the Department of Homeland Security from funding a university that receives financing from the Chinese government.

– The Protect America’s Innovation and Economic Security from CCP Act of 2024 introduced by Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas), which would re-establish a China-focused division in the Justice Department.

Speaker Johnson said that House Republicans were motivated to present this China-focused legislation before the end of the year, with Hill staffers indicating that bills could get a vote sometime in September.

On the budget side, the House passed a $833 billion FY2025 defense appropriations bill in June. It is $8.5 billion above the FY 2024 level of $825 billion, a 1% increase, but below the president's 2025 request of $849 billion. The Senate is currently considering a $851 billion package.

The House package allocates $200 million for Taiwan’s international security cooperation programs and defense services, as well as $500 million for Israeli Cooperative Programs (missile systems), and prohibits funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA).

It is likely that appropriations, along with other spending bills, won’t be addressed until after the election, with a stopgap measure put in place through mid-December.

This year’s NDAA passed the House in June, and through Senate committees, but is unlikely to hit the Senate floor until December.

A House amendment that prohibits funds for any NATO related activities until each member country has spent 2 percent of its respective GDP on defense expenditures failed, 81-346. A measure that would have barred funds from being used for assistance to Ukraine also failed, 74-343, but the House approved an amendment to require the president to submit a strategy for the Ukraine war to the body before further funding is allocated (note: the White House missed a deadline for a similar mandate in June).

Many mostly symbolic amendments were also added to ensure support for Israel.

Meanwhile, Congress may consider a measure to keep funding flowing to Ukraine as it is possible current funding could run out as early as January (Ukraine received $61 billion in emergency funding in April). According to Punchbowl News, this could entail "tweaking" current Pentagon authorities, which would give the Biden administration the ability to continue sending weapons to Ukraine, possibly by expanding the drawdown authority of the president, or by taking from other funding streams. These changes could find their way into the upcoming NDAA.

Pro-Ukraine Republicans, according to the reporting, are trying to ensure that Ukraine doesn't lapse in its funding, perhaps setting up a skirmish with fellow GOP lawmakers who have been opposed to more aid without a defined strategy for ending the war.

"It appears that the GOP's traditionalist wing is attempting to constrain the ability of the New Right under Trump — should he win the election — to reorient American policy toward Ukraine and Russia," said George Beebe, Director of Grand Strategy for the Quincy Institute.

Some indicated they will put up a fight against unconditional funding, particularly after the election. “The next administration needs to make it a Day-One priority to establish a strategy for Ukraine, driven only by U.S. interests and with full awareness of the strategic trade-offs involved in supporting Ukraine at the expense of higher priority theaters,” charged Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) in an interview with the Daily Signal.

“Parallel to a coherent strategy, the next administration needs to be immediately candid with Zelenskyy that the days of appeasement are over, that U.S. weapons may not be used inside Russia, and that any future U.S. aid will be contingent upon peace negotiations,” he said.

With Congress in campaign mode, and only weeks left in the 2023-2024 session, we shouldn't expect a ton of signed legislation by December. But we can expect that the upcoming House “China Week” will feature the introduction of anti-China related legislation. The NDAA will have to be approved before the end of the year, and the defense appropriations bill may be approved, but will likely be replaced with a temporary funding stopgap bill for now.