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Is anyone else concerned that 'deterrence' isn't working with North Korea?

Pyongyang's missile tests are getting closer and closer to Seoul. If Biden has a long-term strategy for peace, we need to see it.

Analysis | Asia-Pacific

In the early morning hours on Thursday, Japan went on alert — with citizens in the northern prefectures urged to seek shelter, and trains halted — after North Korea fired three missiles toward the sea, including one suspected intercontinental ballistic missile, according to reports.

The past month has seen a rapid escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula: North Korea conducting repeated military provocations, while joint U.S.-South Korea-Japan military drills have continued in the Sea of Japan since early October. Last week, the two Koreas went as far as exchanging warning shots at sea.

Pyongyang said Tuesday that the U.S.-led drills “can no longer be tolerated” and subsequently launched more than two dozen missiles on Wednesday, with one falling near South Korean waters “for the first time since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War,” according to the Washington Post.

This recent escalation began soon after the USS Ronald Reagan docked in South Korea’s southern city of Busan on September 23. Two days later, North Korea responded by conducting the first of what would become a long and ongoing series of military provocations.

U.S.-led joint military drills with South Korea are nothing new and the North Koreans usually just release statements criticizing joint exercises but refrain from conducting actual missile tests. But Pyongyang’s response this time around is noteworthy given its resolute and highly emboldened posture.

It’s also notable that several of the North Korean tests took place at night, given the various technical complexities. North Korea showed that it could fire missiles at all times of day and from many different locations, including from an underwater silo in a reservoir. Regarding the latter, it was later revealed that the South Korean military had failed to accurately detect from where this missile was launched and could only track its trajectory when it was already in the air.

But it’s not just missile tests. North Korea has been showing the world that its military capabilities stretch beyond its rockets and missiles. The North has fired hundreds of artillery rounds in recent weeks, with some even falling in maritime buffer zones. North Korean fighter jets are also holding drills near South Korean airspace.

These demonstrations come after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un announced a new law on the use of the country’s nuclear weapons in September. In a speech, he declared that defining the country’s nuclear policy in law had “made our state’s status as a nuclear weapon state irreversible.”

The law details under what conditions nuclear weapons could be used. According to the law, if the North Korean leader were to suffer an accident, “a nuclear strike shall be launched automatically and immediately to destroy hostile forces.”

The measure also has very real implications for future diplomacy with Pyongyang, as Kim Jong Un said his country would never again engage in talks premised on its denuclearization. “There will never be such a thing as our abandonment of the nuclear weapons or denuclearization first, nor will there be any negotiations to this end or bargaining chip in these processes,” Kim said in September.

With its seemingly more confident and emboldened attitude, North Korea may think that the United States is distracted by various other issues, including the war in Ukraine, its economic rivalry with China, and domestic political issues. All the while, the Biden administration has yet to introduce a new strategy for engaging with North Korea.

So while Washington seems content to hold on to “strategic patience,” Pyongyang has been growing its arsenal and has gained more support from both Russia and China, which both vetoed U.S. calls for additional UN Security Council-level sanctions against North Korea back in May.

And sanctions have not brought any resolution to the North Korea issue. Yet the United States continues to adhere to its same old strategies, like restarting joint military drills in response to North Korean provocations.

Although it may be difficult for many in Washington to accept, North Korea has already become a nuclear weapons state and it is not going to give them up in exchange for mere words. Kim seems unimpressed with the U.S. and South Korean position of “keeping the door to dialogue open.”

Simply stating “we are open to dialogue” does nothing to show Pyongyang that talks would turn out any differently from Kim’s meetings with President Trump in Hanoi. The Biden administration must make major changes in its approach clear. This is not capitulating to North Korean provocations; it’s conducting responsible policy as the world’s biggest superpower to ensure safety and security in East Asia and beyond. If the United States really believes it’s the world’s leading power, it must act like it.

The best option for now is to find ways to prevent North Korea from further expanding and developing its weapons programs through dialogue premised on mutual respect and a give-and-take approach.

Although North Korea may someday choose to give up its nuclear weapons, the current focus should be on creating an environment that can set the foundation for this potential eventuality. The United States must aim for a long-term productive relationship with North Korea, build lasting trust, and always keep the goal of ending the Korean War in mind in order to finally make peace on the Korean Peninsula a real possibility.

A closer relationship between Washington and Pyongyang means that it's less likely North Korea will use its nuclear weapons and more likely it will abandon them.

There’s no doubt it’s a huge challenge, but the costs of continuing to ignore the issue are even greater.


North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Russia in 2019. ( Alexander Khitrov/Shutterstock)
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Donald Trump’s recent outburst against Vladimir Putin — accusing the Russian leader of "throwing a pile of bullsh*t at us" and threatening devastating new sanctions — might be just another Trumpian tantrum.

The president is known for abrupt reversals. Or it could be a bargaining tactic ahead of potential Ukraine peace talks. But there’s a third, more troubling possibility: establishment Republican hawks and neoconservatives, who have been maneuvering to hijack Trump’s “America First” agenda since his return to office, may be exploiting his frustration with Putin to push for a prolonged confrontation with Russia.

Trump’s irritation is understandable. Ukraine has accepted his proposed ceasefire, but Putin has refused, making him, in Trump’s eyes, the main obstacle to ending the war.

Putin’s calculus is clear. As Ted Snider notes in the American Conservative, Russia is winning on the battlefield. In June, it captured more Ukrainian territory and now threatens critical Kyiv’s supply lines. Moscow also seized a key lithium deposit critical to securing Trump’s support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone strikes have intensified.

Putin seems convinced his key demands — Ukraine’s neutrality, territorial concessions in the Donbas and Crimea, and a downsized Ukrainian military — are more achievable through war than diplomacy.

Yet his strategy empowers the transatlantic “forever war” faction: leaders in Britain, France, Germany, and the EU, along with hawks in both main U.S. parties. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claims that diplomacy with Russia is “exhausted.” Europe’s war party, convinced a Russian victory would inevitably lead to an attack on NATO (a suicidal prospect for Moscow), is willing to fight “to the last Ukrainian.” Meanwhile, U.S. hawks, including liberal interventionist Democrats, stoke Trump’s ego, framing failure to stand up to Putin’s defiance as a sign of weakness or appeasement.

Trump long resisted this pressure. Pragmatism told him Ukraine couldn’t win, and calling it “Biden’s war” was his way of distancing himself, seeking a quick exit to refocus on China, which he has depicted as Washington’s greater foreign threat. At least as important, U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine has been unpopular with his MAGA base.

But his June strikes on Iran may signal a hawkish shift. By touting them as a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program (despite Tehran’s refusal so far to abandon uranium enrichment), Trump may be embracing a new approach to dealing with recalcitrant foreign powers: offer a deal, set a deadline, then unleash overwhelming force if rejected. The optics of “success” could tempt him to try something similar with Russia.

This pivot coincides with a media campaign against restraint advocates within the administration like Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon policy chief who has prioritized China over Ukraine and also provoked the opposition of pro-Israel neoconservatives by warning against war with Iran. POLITICO quoted unnamed officials attacking Colby for wanting the U.S. to “do less in the world.” Meanwhile, the conventional Republican hawk Marco Rubio’s influence grows as he combines the jobs of both secretary of state and national security adviser.

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Nuclear deterrence rules out direct military action — even Biden, far more invested in Ukraine than Trump, avoided that risk. Instead, Trump ally Sen.Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), another establishment Republican hawk, is pushing a 500% tariff on nations buying Russian hydrocarbons, aiming to sever Moscow from the global economy. Trump seems supportive, although the move’s feasibility and impact are doubtful.

China and India are key buyers of Russian oil. China alone imports 12.5 million barrels daily. Russia exports seven million barrels daily. China could absorb Russia’s entire output. Beijing has bluntly stated it “cannot afford” a Russian defeat, ensuring Moscow’s economic lifeline remains open.

The U.S., meanwhile, is ill-prepared for a tariff war with China. When Trump imposed 145% tariffs, Beijing retaliated by cutting off rare earth metals exports, vital to U.S. industry and defense. Trump backed down.

At the G-7 summit in Canada last month, the EU proposed lowering price caps on Russian oil from $60 a barrel to $45 a barrel as part of its 18th sanctions package against Russia. Trump rejected the proposal at the time but may be tempted to reconsider, given his suggestion that more sanctions may be needed. Even if Washington backs the measure now, however, it is unlikely to cripple Russia’s war machine.

Another strategy may involve isolating Russia by peeling away Moscow’s traditionally friendly neighbors. Here, Western mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan isn’t about peace — if it were, pressure would target Baku, which has stalled agreements and threatened renewed war against Armenia. The real goal is to eject Russia from the South Caucasus and create a NATO-aligned energy corridor linking Turkey to Central Asia, bypassing both Russia and Iran to their detriment.

Central Asia itself is itself emerging as a new battleground. In May 2025, the EU has celebrated its first summit with Central Asian nations in Uzbekistan, with a heavy focus on developing the Middle Corridor, a route for transportation of energy and critical raw materials that would bypass Russia. In that context, the EU has committed €10 billion in support of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

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On June 30, President Trump signed an executive order terminating the majority of U.S. sanctions on Syria. The move, which would have been unthinkable mere months ago, fulfilled a promise he made at an investment forum in Riyadh in May.“The sanctions were brutal and crippling,” he had declared to an audience of primarily Saudi businessmen. Lifting them, he said, will “give Syria a chance at greatness.”

The significance of this statement lies not solely in the relief that it will bring to the Syrian people. His remarks revealed an implicit but rarely admitted truth: sanctions — often presented as a peaceful alternative to war — have been harming the Syrian people all along.

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