Follow us on social

2022-05-24t031859z_2_lynxnpei4n01v_rtroptp_4_japan-quad-scaled

Quad Summit: US China-Containment strategy slowly gelling

Though the grouping is unlikely to become a formal alliance it's essentially a security bloc by stealth.

Analysis | Asia-Pacific

While a degree of competition with Beijing is inevitable, the United States needs to stress cooperation with China in key areas such as climate change and public health.

With its latest summit in Tokyo, the four-nation Quad (U.S., India, Japan and Australia) has taken a few steps further in its focus on countering China. The announcement of a new initiative against illegal fishing (the “Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness”) and the commitment of $50 billion in "assistance and investment" over the next five years for infrastructure in the region were the two most concrete initiatives from the meeting. 

Apart from these, progress was reported in the Quad's climate change (mitigation and adaptation), cyber, space, critical technologies, and educational areas of activity. However, the exact sources and relative contributions from each state for the $50 billion in infrastructure investments have not been clarified.

As I wrote in a previous article, the Quad has until recently been essentially a talk shop sending diplomatic signals of a joint front against China. A major concrete deliverable however (unmentioned in its summit and officially disavowed by the grouping) has been hard security, with the Malabar exercise by the same four states steadily growing in terms of sophistication and contingency planning.

Since 2021, a vaccine initiative has also gotten off the ground delivering hundreds of millions of doses to Asia. Though behind its original schedule, the vaccine initiative has made a positive contribution to the region. Supply chain resilience is also an important activity the Quad can contribute to, though here the preferences of some Asian states may be weaker or divergent from Washington’s preferences of strong decoupling from China.

Despite the Quad's new economic and developmental initiatives, the U.S. still lacks a clear economic strategy in Asia. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, also announced during the Biden trip, is still lacking in details and appears to contain few incentives for regional states to sign on to.

Though Beijing is still not officially mentioned anywhere in the Quad's statements, the China focus of the Quad is becoming even clearer. However, the Quad pointedly excludes China in all its initiatives, including climate change. Since President Biden has called climate change an "existential" threat (and this term is also used in the joint statement's accompanying fact sheet), it makes sense for the Quad to include China in this arena, including in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. 

This is also true for the Quad's approach to ASEAN. Though "ASEAN unity and centrality" was mentioned in the joint statement as before, the Quad appears to be building structures parallel to and separate from ASEAN. There is room in Asia for multiple groupings and initiatives, but as the continent's most successful experiment in integration and peace, ASEAN ought to be engaged much more seriously by the Quad.

More broadly, the Quad's continued gelling as a part of President Biden's China-containment Indo-Pacific strategy, along with China's intrusive activities in maritime and terrestrial domains, adds to sharpening divides in Asia. With Russia and China converging even further in wake of the Ukraine crisis, as evidenced by their joint nuclear flyby near Japan yesterday, these trends accelerate the division of major powers into two blocs reminiscent of the Cold War. Though the Quad is unlikely to become a formal alliance in the foreseeable future, it is essentially a bloc by stealth — increasingly looking and feeling like an alliance.

 "We're not seeking a new cold war or a world divided into rigid blocs" said President Biden in his speech at the United Nations in 2021. It behooves upon him (as also the leadership in Beijing) to be true to his word and try his best to find ways to cooperate and even launch joint initiatives with China, especially in arenas such as climate change and public health, thereby helping arrest the current dangerous trend in Asia toward confrontation and potential conflict. 


Prime Minister of Australia Anthony Albanese, U.S. President Joe Biden, Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida, Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, pose for photos at the entrance hall of the Prime Minister’s Office of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, May 24, 2022. Zhang Xiaoyu/Pool via REUTERS
Analysis | Asia-Pacific
Trump and Keith Kellogg
Top photo credit: U.S. President Donald Trump and Keith Kellogg (now Trump's Ukraine envoy) in 2017. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Trump's silence on loss of Ukraine lithium territory speaks volumes

Europe

Last week, Russian military forces seized a valuable lithium field in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, the latest success of Moscow’s grinding summer offensive.

The lithium deposit in question is considered rather small by industry analysts, but is said to be a desirable prize nonetheless due to the concentration and high-quality of its ore. In other words, it is just the kind of asset that the Trump administration seemed eager to exploit when it signed its much heralded minerals agreement with Ukraine earlier this year.

keep readingShow less
Is the US now funding the bloodbath at Gaza aid centers?
Top photo credit: Palestinians walk to collect aid supplies from the U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, May 29, 2025. REUTERS/Hatem Khaled/File Photo

Is the US now funding the bloodbath at Gaza aid centers?

Middle East

Many human rights organizations say it should shut down. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have killed hundreds of Palestinians at or around its aid centers. And yet, the U.S. has committed no less than $30 million toward the controversial, Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).

As famine-like conditions grip Gaza, the GHF says it has given over 50 million meals to Palestinians at its four aid centers in central and southern Gaza Strip since late May. These centers are operated by armed U.S. private contractors, and secured by IDF forces present at or near them.

keep readingShow less
mali
Heads of state of Mali, Assimi Goita, Niger, General Abdourahamane Tiani and Burkina Faso, Captain Ibrahim Traore, pose for photographs during the first ordinary summit of heads of state and governments of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in Niamey, Niger July 6, 2024. REUTERS/Mahamadou Hamidou//File Photo

Post-coup juntas across the Sahel face serious crises

Africa

In Mali, General Assimi Goïta, who took power in a 2020 coup, now plans to remain in power through at least the end of this decade, as do his counterparts in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger. As long-ruling juntas consolidate power in national capitals, much of the Sahelian terrain remains out of government control.

Recent attacks on government security forces in Djibo (Burkina Faso), Timbuktu (Mali), and Eknewane (Niger) have all underscored the depth of the insecurity. The Sahelian governments face a powerful threat from jihadist forces in two organizations, Jama‘at Nusrat al-Islam wa-l-Muslimin (the Group for Supporting Islam and Muslims, JNIM, which is part of al-Qaida) and the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP). The Sahelian governments also face conventional rebel challengers and interact, sometimes in cooperation and sometimes in tension, with various vigilantes and community-based armed groups.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.