Follow us on social

472258-scaled

Russia urges Afghanistan’s neighbors not to welcome US forces

Uzbekistan has been discussed as the most likely contender to accept some sort of U.S. military presence, despite Tashkent's denials.

Analysis | Asia-Pacific

Russia’s foreign minister has asked Central Asian states bordering Afghanistan not to host U.S. or NATO forces, following recent reports in American media that Washington continues to put out feelers to establish some sort of military presence in the region.

“We again call upon the countries neighboring Afghanistan not to allow a military presence on their territories by U.S. or NATO forces, who plan to redeploy there following their departure from Afghanistan,” Sergey Lavrov said on October 27.

His remarks were addressed to all of Afghanistan’s neighbors, which include the Central Asian states of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, as well as China, Iran and Pakistan.

Of all these, Uzbekistan has been held up as the most likely contender to accept some sort of U.S. military presence, even as Tashkent consistently denies it is on the agenda.

Lavrov made his statement two weeks after U.S. media reported that Pentagon officials were part of a U.S. delegation that paid a visit to Uzbekistan during which military cooperation was discussed.

“Top of the agenda will be the possibility of housing ‘over the horizon’ counterterrorism forces, an arrangement that would allow the U.S. military to more easily surveil and strike targets in Afghanistan,” the Politico website reported on October 13, citing “a defense official and a congressional official briefed on the trip.”

“I’m concerned about the notion that the U.S. can keep eyes and ears inside Afghanistan now that we’re outside,” Politico quoted August Pfluger, a House Foreign Affairs Committee member from Texas who was part of the delegation, as saying.

“Having a friend in the region in geographic proximity to that potential terrorist safe haven is important tactically and strategically.”

Tashkent immediately denied reports of ongoing talks about hosting a U.S. military or counterterrorism presence, which have periodically surfaced in the U.S. media since April, months before Afghanistan fell to the Taliban in August.

The matter “is not being discussed,” Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Komilov told reporters flatly on October 14.

foreign policy doctrine adopted in 2012 prohibits Uzbekistan from hosting foreign troops and bases. A military doctrine that came into force in 2018 reinforced that rule. (With Russia's blessing, the U.S. used the Karshi-Khanabad Airbase in southern Uzbekistan between 2001 and 2005 for missions in Afghanistan. Tashkent evicted the Americans after Washington criticized the 2005 massacre in Andijan.)

It is not in Tashkent’s interest to allow Washington to use its territory for military purposes, suggested Kamoliddin Rabimov, a France-based Uzbekistani analyst.

“To preserve its neutrality and geopolitical independence, official Tashkent should not let itself get dragged into the Afghan conflict, and does not wish to start a new geopolitical experiment for the sake of Washington’s interests, since this would simultaneously complicate relations with Russia, China and the new regime in Kabul,” he told Eurasianet.

Komilov has also ruled out Uzbekistan re-joining the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – a regional security bloc that Tashkent quit in 2012 – as a result of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.

“At least at this moment we do not see a need to restore Uzbekistan’s membership in the CSTO,” Kamilov said on October 22.

“But in parallel, active cooperation is in progress with the Russian Federation and with neighboring states to some degree on security matters.”

Tashkent’s stance on relations with the Taliban government is similar to that of Moscow. Both favor engagement, but stop short of formal recognition.

This month alone, officials from Uzbekistan have held two meetings with Afghan government representatives. Komilov visited Kabul on October 7, and days later Taliban officials visited Termez in southern Uzbekistan, a border town which is a staging post for the dispatch of international humanitarian aid to Afghanistan.

Uzbekistan also held military drills with Russian forces near the border with Afghanistan in August, days before Kabul fell to the Taliban.

This article has been republished with permission from Eurasianet.


C-130 Hercules aircrew members board their aircraft for an Operation Enduring Freedom mission at Karshi-Khanabad Air Base, Uzbekistan, on April 19, 2005. (Photo by Master Sgt. Scott Sturkol).
Analysis | Asia-Pacific
Alexander Vindman's new book is a folly: of history, and the truth
Top photo credit: Alexander Vindman (Philip Yabut/Shutterstock) and the cover of his new book (publisher, PublicAffairs)

Alexander Vindman's new book is a folly: of history, and the truth

Europe

Alexander Vindman’s recent book, “The Folly of Realism,”throws down the gauntlet, as the name suggests, at the “realists” he thinks were responsible for failing to deter Russia and seize opportunities for defense cooperation with Ukraine.

According to Vindman, the former National Security Council official who testified against President Trump during his impeachment trial in 2019, this “realist” behavior incentivized Moscow’s continued imperialist predations, culminating in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

keep readingShow less
Trump should take the victory in Canada and move on
Top photo credit: Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney (Yan Parisien; bella1105 via shutterstock)

Trump should take the victory in Canada and move on

North America

Just days after replacing Justin Trudeau and becoming Canada’s 24th prime minister, Mark Carney has advised Governor General Mary Simon to dissolve Parliament. Canadians will now head to the polls on April 28 for a long awaited and highly anticipated federal election.

Trudeau had announced his intention to resign as prime minister and Liberal Party leader on January 6, having served more than nine years as Canada’s head of government. Opinion polling had shown an increasingly sizable lead for the rival Conservative Party over the preceding 18 months, with about 25 percentage points separating the two parties by the time Trudeau announced he was stepping down.

keep readingShow less
arrest free speech
Top photo credit: Spaxiax/Shutterstock

Does Vance’s free speech defense in Munich not apply here?

Global Crises

At the Munich Security Conference in mid-February, U.S. Vice President JD Vance warned Europe not to back away from one of the West’s most basic democratic values: free speech.

“In Washington there is a new sheriff in town," he said, "and under Donald Trump’s leadership, we may disagree with your views, but we will fight to defend your right to offer it in the public square, agree or disagree.”

keep readingShow less

Trump transition

Latest

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.