Follow us on social

120113-g-rs249-001-scaled

The case for restraint and diplomacy as China turns toward the Arctic

Militarization of the Arctic won’t do either side any good.

Analysis | Asia-Pacific

Recent Chinese interest and investment in the Arctic has raised concern in Washington about China’s growing focus on the High North. While the United States sees Chinese encroachment in the Arctic as a precursor for more invasive and aggressive political ambitions outside of Asia, there is a compelling argument for military restraint and a turn towards diplomatic engagement.

First, tit-for-tat militarization in the Arctic will not be productive and second, it is not feasible for the United States to prevent any and all Chinese activity in the Arctic. Thus, third, the United States should instead push for transparency of China’s agenda in the Arctic to reduce the risk of misinformation and develop policies that deny troubling behaviors and transform them into constructive ones.

China’s Interest in the Arctic

In 2018, China declared itself to be a near-Arctic state in its Arctic Policy. For China, the Arctic is at a strategic nexus for environmental and economic concerns. Beyond that nexus, China is interested in expanding its Polar Silk Road, enhancing Chinese security and improving Arctic governance. However, China’s interest in the Arctic relates first and foremost to continued access to natural resources and use of the Northern Sea Route in order to transport those resources to other countries.

In order to use the Northern Sea Route, China has developed a close relationship with Russia both to help develop the route as well as develop energy and natural gas projects in the Russian Arctic such as the Arctic LNG-2. Beyond an interest in natural resources and economic development, China has also expressed scientific interest in the Arctic such as developing long-term ocean observation technologies.

China has also expressed interest in investing in Arctic states’ infrastructure — a development that has worried U.S. officials. According to some Arctic observers, China’s goal is to use investment and trade to gain economic leverage over Arctic states and export an Arctic governance narrative that gives China a more direct role in governing the Arctic.

In Iceland, for example, Chinese investment consisted of almost six percent of Iceland’s average GDP for the last five years. This relationship, while sought by Iceland, has given China access to Iceland’s scientific facilities, telecommunications infrastructure, and geothermal energy expertise. Similarly, in Greenland, Chinese firms have invested twelve percent of Greenland’s GDP from 2012 to 2017. In response to growing Chinese influence and investment, some states have expressed concern. In 2016, for example, Denmark and the United States prevented China from buying a defunct military base in Greenland and encouraged the state to reject Chinese offers to build international airports.

The issue of dual-use technologies

However, much of China’s scientific interest is dual use in nature. In short, civilian research now could be used to support China’s military presence in the Arctic later. Existing Chinese scholarship supports this concern with focuses on dual-use logistics support facilities throughout the region, the development of polar military technology through scientific research in the Arctic, the development of public good services (i.e. Search and Rescue), and military personnel training for Arctic weather conditions.

Given China’s increasing research capabilities including two icebreakers and research stations in Iceland and Norway, it suggests that dual-use technologies and scientific interest may be a route through which China aims to use to grow influence in the region. 

Turn towards transparency

Despite the rise of Chinese interest and influence in the Arctic, there is a compelling case for the United States to not militarize in response. First and most importantly, a tit-for-tat military response has been shown to be insufficient in reducing tensions in the region. The United States also does not have the right to deny China access to the Arctic and prevent its activities. Instead of treating the Arctic as an inevitable domain for militarization, the United States would be better served by engaging with China on issues that they can cooperate on such as environmental concerns, climate change, and improving Arctic governance.

Instead, the United States should push for transparency of Chinese Arctic policy and develop policies that recognize and rebuff destructive behavior, shaping them to be more constructive in nature. Part of the problem is that China’s policy in the Arctic is difficult to classify due to the nature of dual-use technologies and China’s both cooperative approach in the Arctic Council as well as allegedly predatory investment nature towards Greenland and Iceland. Thus, the United States should push China to identify clearer goals and subsume those goals into the rules-based order that the Arctic operates under. There is no reason why diplomacy could not be used to better promote dialogue between China and the United States while also bringing in China’s more expansionist ambitions and restraining them to more reasonable terms.  


The Kigluaik Mountains are visible as the Coast Guard Cutter Healy breaks ice for the Russian tanker Renda near Nome Jan. 13, 2012. The Healy and crew are approximately seven nautical miles away from Nome. (U.S. Coast Guard photo by Petty Officer 2nd Class Charly Hengen)
Analysis | Asia-Pacific
 Abdel Fattah al-Burhan Sudan
Top image credit: Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan gestures to soldiers inside the presidential palace after the Sudanese army said it had taken control of the building, in the capital Khartoum, Sudan March 26, 2025. Sudan Transitional Sovereignty Council/Handout via REUTERS

Saudi Arabia chooses sides in Sudan's civil war

Africa

In the final days of Ramadan, before Mecca's Grand Mosque, Sudan's de facto president and army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan knelt in prayer beside Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. Al-Burhan had arrived in the kingdom just two days after his troops dealt a significant blow to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), recapturing the capital Khartoum after two years of civil war. Missing from the frame was the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the Gulf power that has backed al-Burhan’s rivals in Sudan’s civil war with arms, mercenaries, and political cover.

The scene captured the essence of a deepening rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE — once allies in reshaping the Arab world, now architects of competing visions for Sudan and the region.

For two years, Sudan has been enveloped in chaos. The conflict that erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed forces (SAF) and the RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo "Hemedti," has inflicted immense suffering: an estimated 150,000 killed, allegations of mass atrocities staining both sides but particularly the RSF in Darfur, 12 million displaced, and over half the population facing acute food insecurity.

keep readingShow less
Steve Witkoff
Top image credit: Steve Witkoff, the special envoy to the Middle East, makes an appearance moments before President Donald J. Trump holds a joint news conference at the White House with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on February 4, 2025. This is Trump’s first joint news conference with a foreign leader in his second term. (Photo by Joshua Sukoff/MNS/Sipa USA) VIA REUTERS

Can Trump wait for a deal with Iran?

Middle East

While Donald Trump has repeatedly bragged that he can end international conflicts in days, he is clearly frustrated that global leaders are not bending to his will. Only last week, he said that he is “angry” that Moscow has not offered a Ukraine deal and that he might impose secondary “tariffs” on Russian oil sales. He also warned that if Iran doesn’tmake a deal, there will be bombing.”

This lashing out is not part of some grand “madman” strategy. Rather, it is a product of Trump’s apparent need to project power. The trick is to know how to reward that projection: Putin’s commissioning of a portrait of Trump — which his personal Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, claims the Russian leader asked him to deliver to the president — paints a vivid example of the nature and perhaps limits of such strategic flattery.

keep readingShow less
Marine Le Pen
Top photo credit: Marine Le Pen (Claude Truong-Ngoc / Wikimedia Commons)

What happens to EU's anti-war bloc without Marine Le Pen?

Europe

A political bombshell in France: the long-time leader of the right-wing National Rally party (Rassemblement National) Marine Le Pen has been banned from running for political office for the next five years after a court in Paris found her guilty of embezzling the equivalent of $4 million in EU funds to pay National Rally staffers not working for the European Parliament.

She was also handed a suspended four-year prison term and ordered to pay a €100,000 fine. It remains to be seen whether the court decision means a political death sentence for her (it can be overturned if she wins an appeal), but it is certainly a devastating blow and a major shake-up of French politics.

keep readingShow less

Trump transition

Latest

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.