Follow us on social

Shutterstock_1641781519-1-scaled

Will Jordan end the peace treaty after Israel annexes the West Bank?

Israel appears to be moving full steam ahead on its plans to annex large portions of the West Bank seemingly without much consideration of the consequences.

Analysis | Middle East

After the first Arab-Israeli war of 1948, Jordan annexed the West Bank until the Israelis began occupying the land amid the 1967 war. By 1988, Jordan ceded all claims to the West Bank to the Palestinians before the Hashemite Kingdom signed a peace deal with Israel in 1994. Officially, Jordan and Israel have been at peace for the past 26 years.

In recent years, however, the relationship between the Jordanian and Israeli governments has suffered significantly. The most recent development that further damaged bilateral ties came when Israel declared that, as of July 1, it will start annexing parts of the West Bank — including all Israeli settlements in this occupied territory and the Jordan Valley, amounting to 30 to 40 percent of the West Bank — based on the agreement reached between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Benny Gantz.

Recently, 50 U.N. human rights experts signed a joint statement calling on countries worldwide to oppose Israel’s annexation plans, which would quickly transform the remainder of the West Bank into a “Palestinian Bantustan.” From both a Jordanian and Palestinian perspective, this unilateral move would be extremely dangerous. There is no doubt that the Israeli annexation plan poses a grave threat to stability in Jordan, which hosts many Palestinian refugees who have been denied by Israel the right of return. More than 50,000 Palestinians live in the Jordan Valley, which produces more than 60 percent of the vegetables consumed in the Occupied Palestinian Territories as the valley is deemed the food basket, or the source of food security, for Palestinians.

Furthermore, according to the 2015 census, 70 percent of those in the Hashemite Kingdom are Palestinian, which makes it difficult to imagine how Israel annexing parts of the West Bank and Jordan Valley would not fuel widespread anger and unrest across Jordan. This annexation would lead to more Palestinians entering Jordan as refugees, representing even more of a strain on public services and infrastructure following decades of Palestinian, Iraqi, and Syrian refugees coming into Jordan.

Religious variables are in the equation too. Jordan’s King Abdullah II has religious custodianship of Muslim/Christian sites in Jerusalem. Ever since the Trump administration recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, the battle for this holy city has become the source of growing anger for Jordanians.

Washington’s role

On top of formally recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, Trump’s administration has taken a host of other steps that underscore how closely aligned this White House is with virtually every aspect of Netanyahu’s agenda. Such moves include U.S. recognition of the Syrian Golan Heights as Israeli territory, ending all U.S. funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, and closing the Palestinian Liberation Organization’s office in Washington. All of this has upset Jordan, which sees Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner’s Israel/Palestine policies as severely threatening Amman’s basic interests.

King Abdullah II has warned that any Israeli annexation of parts of the West Bank and the Jordan Valley would lead to a “massive conflict.” The king warned that forcing a one-state solution would hurt the whole region. Last month, he told Der Spiegel: “Leaders who advocate a one-state solution do not understand what that would mean. What would happen if the Palestinian National Authority collapsed? There would be more chaos and extremism in the region. If Israel really annexed the West Bank in July, it would lead to a massive conflict with the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.”

Since both countries signed the Jordanian-Israeli Wadi Araba peace treaty in 1994, the Israelis have benefitted from their cooperation with Jordanian security forces and intelligence agencies. Yet, if Israel continues with its plans to annex the Jordan Valley, Jordan will most likely review its peace agreement with Israel and could recall its ambassador to Israel. This of course would likely entail ceasing or freezing security cooperation between the two countries.

Some historical context is useful for understanding the loss of Jordanian patience with this treaty. When delegations representing Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinians went to Madrid in 1991, their first goal was not to restore the Golan Heights to Syria, nor end Israel’s occupation of Lebanese territories. Rather, their main objective was to end Israeli control of the Occupied Palestinian Territories, establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and to give the Palestinian people the right of self-determination. While the Arabs were unable to regain the occupied territories by force, there perhaps seemed, at least at the time, to be a glimmer of hope for a political solution and peaceful recovery of this land under international cover for having an Israeli state and a Palestinian state as per U.N. resolutions 242 and 338.

Mainly for those reasons, the Jordanians signed their 1994 peace treaty with Israel. Eight years later, in 2002, Saudi Arabia launched the Arab Peace Initiative, not to satisfy Israel, nor to achieve individual gains for any Arab regime, but instead to establish a viable Palestinian state.

However, the political processes behind the Madrid Conference and the Oslo Accords, signed by the Israeli government and Palestinians in 1993 and 1995, were just a mirage. Therefore, it is essential to ask what these agreements actually mean, if anything at all.

Amman enjoys a positive global standing which would help gain international momentum in opposition to Israel’s plans for the West Bank. Such support from governments and civil societies worldwide will drive Jordan to review its 26-year-old treaty with Israel, creating the serious impression that Israel cannot unilaterally undertake such measures without suffering serious and negative consequences for taking land that exists outside of the country’s U.N.-recognized borders. Simply, Israel cannot take this action and expect neighboring Jordan to carry on with business as usual.

Danger ahead

The region is heading in a dangerous direction as the world awaits to see what Israel does next. In 2020, it’s clear that all the traditional means to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict have been exhausted. There are not many options left for the Palestinian National Authority.

It would be difficult to exaggerate how much Amman has at stake. Jordan’s leadership has long warned of Israeli efforts to establish “an alternative homeland” for Palestinians in the Hashemite Kingdom. An Israeli annexation of the Jordan Valley would only add to such concerns. There is every reason to worry about the fate of Palestinians who live in the West Bank and Jordan because they could find themselves increasingly marginalized.

Within this context, significant domestic pressure is mounting on the King of Jordan to tear the Jordanian-Israeli Wadi Araba peace treaty to shreds. Nonetheless, such a move would inevitably add significant tension to U.S.-Jordan relations, which have suffered under the Trump presidency. Given that Jordan receives $1.8 billion a year in aid from Washington, King Abdullah II will have to weigh his options carefully.


Photo credit: Gevorg Ghazaryan / Shutterstock.com
Analysis | Middle East
Kim Jong Un
Top photo credit: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the construction site of the Ragwon County Offshore Farm, North Korea July 13, 2025. KCNA via REUTERS

Kim Jong Un is nuking up and playing hard to get

Asia-Pacific

President Donald Trump’s second term has so far been a series of “shock and awe” campaigns both at home and abroad. But so far has left North Korea untouched even as it arms for the future.

The president dramatically broke with precedent during his first term, holding two summits as well as a brief meeting at the Demilitarized Zone with the North’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. Unfortunately, engagement crashed and burned in Hanoi. The DPRK then pulled back, essentially severing contact with both the U.S. and South Korea.

keep readingShow less
Why new CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper is as wrong as the old one
Top photo credit: U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Brad Cooper speaks to guests at the IISS Manama Dialogue in Manama, Bahrain, November 17, 2023. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed

Why new CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper is as wrong as the old one

Middle East

If accounts of President Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iranian nuclear facilities this past month are to be believed, the president’s initial impulse to stay out of the Israel-Iran conflict failed to survive the prodding of hawkish advisers, chiefly U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Michael Kurilla.

With Kurilla, an Iran hawk and staunch ally of both the Israeli government and erstwhile national security adviser Mike Waltz, set to leave office this summer, advocates of a more restrained foreign policy may understandably feel like they are out of the woods.

keep readingShow less
Putin Trump
Top photo credit: Vladimir Putin (Office of the President of the Russian Federation) and Donald Trump (US Southern Command photo)

How Trump's 50-day deadline threat against Putin will backfire

Europe

In the first six months of his second term, President Donald Trump has demonstrated his love for three things: deals, tariffs, and ultimatums.

He got to combine these passions during his Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday. Only moments after the two leaders announced a new plan to get military aid to Ukraine, Trump issued an ominous 50-day deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire. “We're going to be doing secondary tariffs if we don't have a deal within 50 days,” Trump told the assembled reporters.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.