Follow us on social

8464895585_4558fa26b7_o-scaled

Why is the US removing its Patriot missile systems from Saudi Arabia?

While the military characterized the move as part of a planned withdrawal that reflects the view that Iran now poses less of a threat, the news has prompted debate over the timing of the decision.

Analysis | Middle East

The U.S. is removing Patriot anti-missile systems from Saudi Arabia as part of a broader drawdown of its military capacity placed there to counter Iran. While the military characterized the move as part of a planned withdrawal that reflects the view that Iran now poses less of a threat, the news has prompted debate over the timing of the decision.

In general, the Trump administration and especially Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have repeatedly emphasized the danger to regional security posed by Iran. To suddenly acknowledge that the Islamic Republic is less of a threat than it was previously portrayed to be appears to undermine the case that hawks like Pompeo and Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook have made, that the U.S. needs to maintain a posture of heightened vigilance and even pre-emptive aggression in order to deter military actions by Iran. Tensions between Iran and the U.S. remain high, which was why the reduction of U.S. military presence in Saudi Arabia prompted speculation among observers. Given Trump’s transactional approach to policymaking and his tendency for showmanship, the assertion that the decision merely reflects the need for maintenance of the Patriot system seems incomplete.

One interpretation reads that the Trump administration feels that Saudi Arabia needs to be reminded that its enjoyment of U.S.-guaranteed security is predicated on its adherence to America's oil price preferences. Reuters revealed that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman agreed to cut Saudi oil production after Trump called to say that he would otherwise be unable to prevent a bill sanctioning Saudi Arabia from being introduced by representatives of oil producing states, most of whom are Republicans. Although MBS did agree to cut production, Trump may have felt that the Crown Prince would benefit from a reminder of his kingdom’s dependence on the U.S. military umbrella.

Alternatively, Trump just issued the seventh veto of his presidency in order to defeat a bi-partisan bill that would have required him to gain Congressional approval before launching military action against Iran. Although Trump was unwilling to acknowledge any limit to his executive authority, the drawdown of the U.S. military presence in Saudi Arabia may serve to reassure members of Congress, especially Trump’s GOP allies, that they need not fear his belligerence against Iran.

One final interpretation of the decision to reduce U.S. military capacity in Saudi Arabia takes the opposite view: that it could be intended to tempt the Iranians into a military action that would justify a more robust response from the United States. As explained by officials quoted in the Wall Street Journal article, the build-up of U.S. forces in Saudi Arabia was undertaken in response to attacks on Saudi oil facilities in September 2019 that Riyadh and Washington blamed on Iran. However, Iran has generally avoided escalation, even following the killing of Qassem Soleimani in early January, the “unprofessionalism” of Iranian boat captains notwithstanding. Hawks within the Trump White House have maintained that they view the Iranian regime as weak and near collapse and may hope that reducing U.S. forces could tempt Tehran into more aggressive moves that would justify an intimidating U.S. military response.

The drawdown of U.S. military presence in the Middle East, and especially from Saudi Arabia, is a welcome development. However, given this administration’s track record of belligerence towards Iran and its transaction approach towards even its closest security partners, it is hardly surprising that the timing of the move is provoking considerable speculation.


A Patriot missile battery sits on an overlook at a Turkish army base in Gaziantep, Turkey, Feb. 4, 2013. (DoD photo by Glenn Fawcett/Released)
Analysis | Middle East
Fort Bragg horrors expose dark underbelly of post-9/11 warfare
Top photo credit: Seth Harp book jacket (Viking press) US special operators/deviant art/creative commons

Fort Bragg horrors expose dark underbelly of post-9/11 warfare

Media

In 2020 and 2021, 109 U.S. soldiers died at Fort Bragg, the largest military base in the country and the central location for the key Special Operations Units in the American military.

Only four of them were on overseas deployments. The others died stateside, mostly of drug overdoses, violence, or suicide. The situation has hardly improved. It was recently revealed that another 51 soldiers died at Fort Bragg in 2023. According to U.S. government data, these represent more military fatalities than have occurred at the hands of enemy forces in any year since 2013.

keep readingShow less
Trump Netanyahu
Top image credit: President Donald Trump hosts a bilateral dinner for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Monday, July 7, 2025, in the Blue Room. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

The case for US Middle East retrenchment has never been clearer

Middle East

Is Israel becoming the new hegemon of the Middle East? The answer to this question is an important one.

Preventing the rise of a rival regional hegemon — a state with a preponderance of military and economic power — in Eurasia has long been a core goal of U.S. foreign policy. During the Cold War, Washington feared Soviet dominion over Europe. Today, U.S. policymakers worry that China’s increasingly capable military will crowd the United States out of Asia’s lucrative economic markets. The United States has also acted repeatedly to prevent close allies in Europe and Asia from becoming military competitors, using promises of U.S. military protection to keep them weak and dependent.

keep readingShow less
United Nations
Top image credit: lev radin / Shutterstock.com

Do we need a treaty on neutrality?

Global Crises

In an era of widespread use of economic sanctions, dual-use technology exports, and hybrid warfare, the boundary between peacetime and wartime has become increasingly blurry. Yet understandings of neutrality remain stuck in the time of trench warfare. An updated conception of neutrality, codified through an international treaty, is necessary for global security.

Neutrality in the 21st century is often whatever a country wants it to be. For some, such as the European neutrals like Switzerland and Ireland, it is compatible with non-U.N. sanctions (such as by the European Union) while for others it is not. Countries in the Global South are also more likely to take a case-by-case approach, such as choosing to not take a stance on a specific conflict and instead call for a peaceful resolution while others believe a moral position does not undermine neutrality.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.