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US Marines' deployment in Middle East likely extended

US Marines' deployment in Middle East likely extended

2,000 American servicemembers were sent to the region for 'deterrence' after start of the Gaza war

Analysis | QiOSK
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Despite the White House parsing whether the U.S. is in a "war" or not, the Pentagon is mulling whether to extend the deployment of an existing Amphibious Ready Group now stationed in the Middle East, according to reports, as attacks by the Houthis and subsequent retaliations increase.

According to Military.com, the group includes the USS Bataan, USS Carter Hall, and USS Mesa Verde and has been "operating in the Middle East and the Mediterranean since the summer." ARG also includes aircraft and about 2,000 Marines as part of the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, according to the online magazine. As Naval warships with anti-missile batteries have been engaging directly with Houthis in the Red Sea, the USS Bataan has been "trawling the waters of the Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz and Mediterranean as a warning to disruptive actors in the area while being ready to help in an emergency."

The ARG was supposed to be replaced by the Boxer ARG, but reports indicate that the amphibious group is not "ready" (this has been fueled by speculation since the summer that the lead ship, the USS Boxer, was experiencing mechanical problems and had been docked for the last year).

An extended tour would mean the Marines on the USS Bataan would be in the region for upwards of a year before going home.

All told, the U.S military has about 30,000 service members currently deployed in the Middle East, which includes its permanent bases in Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. The USS Ford carrier group returned to the U.S. this month on regular rotation, leaving the USS Eisenhower carrier strike group in the Red Sea with about 7,500 personnel.

The White House, despite nearly a dozen retaliatory attacks against the Houthis by the U.S. military over the last week, does not want to characterize the situation as "war," which has some in the press corps "perplexed," according to Miltiary.com.

"We don't seek war," said White House spokesperson Sabrina Singh last Thursday. "We are not at war with the Houthis."

"I don't know that there's any purpose served by being too cute about the way you talk about it," former Navy captain and RAND researcher Brad Martin told Military.com. "It's definitely combat, and it is definitely something that could become a much larger combat. ... Whether or not it is at the level that we would call a war is sort of an academic distinction."

The magazine noted that the Navy has awarded medals including a rare Combat Action Ribbon to sailors on the USS Carney, which was involved in shooting down Houthi strikes in October. At the time, it was reported that the Houthis were not attacking U.S. ships directly. From reporter Konstantin Toropin:

Navy officials have, so far, been unwilling to provide the citation behind the Combat Action Ribbon to Military.com, and they have yet to offer an explanation for why it cannot be made public.

When (Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder) was asked whether the award signified that Navy ships are considered in combat while conducting seemingly defensive operations in the Red Sea, he replied that "the admiral's actions speak for themselves in terms of recognizing the crew ... so let's leave it at that."


Marines depart amphibious assault ship USS Bataan in 2014.

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Analysis | QiOSK
Dan Caine
Top photo credit: Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff U.S. Air Force Gen. Dan Caine conduct a press briefing on Operation Epic Fury at the Pentagon, Washington, D.C., March 4, 2026. (DoW photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Alexander Kubitza)

Did Caine just announce the Morgenthau option for Iran?

QiOSK

Gen. Dan Caine’s formulation of American war aims in Iran is remarkable not because it is bellicose, but because it is strategically incoherent.

In a press conference Tuesday morning, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff did not describe a limited campaign to suppress missile fire, blunt Iran’s naval threat, or even impose a severe but bounded setback on Tehran’s coercive instruments. He described a campaign against Iran’s “military and industrial base” designed to prevent the regime from attacking Americans, U.S. interests, and regional partners “for years to come.” In an earlier briefing he put the objective similarly: to prevent Iran from projecting power outside its borders. Rather than the language of a discrete coercive operation, this describes a war against a state’s capacity to regenerate power.

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Mbs-mbz-scaled
UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan receives Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the Presidential Airport in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates November 27, 2019. WAM/Handout via REUTERS

Is the US goading Arab states to join war against Iran?

QiOSK

On Sunday, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Mike Waltz told ABC News that Arab Gulf states may soon step up their involvement in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. “I expect that you'll see additional diplomatic and possibly military action from them in the coming days and weeks,” Waltz said.

Then, on Monday morning, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) slammed Saudi Arabia for staying out of the war even as “Americans are dying and the U.S. is spending billions” of dollars to conduct regime change in Iran. “If you are not willing to use your military now, when are you willing to use it?” Graham asked. “Hopefully this changes soon. If not, consequences will follow.”

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Why Tehran may have time on its side
Top image credit: Iranian army military personnel stand at attention under a banner featuring an image of an Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) during a military parade commemorating the anniversary of Army Day outside the Shrine of Iran's late leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the south of Tehran, Iran, on April 18, 2025. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto)

Why Tehran may have time on its side

QiOSK

A provocative calculus by Anusar Farrouqui (“policytensor”) has been circulating on X and in more exhaustive form on the author’s Substack. It purports to demonstrate a sobering reality: in a high-intensity U.S.-Iran conflict, the United States may be unable to suppress Iranian drone production quickly enough to prevent a strategically consequential period of regional devastation.

The argument is framed through a quantitative lens, carrying the seductive appeal of mathematical precision. It arranges variables—such as U.S. sortie rates and degradation efficiency against Iranian repair cycles and rebuild speeds—to suggest a "sustainable firing rate." The implication is that Iran could maintain a persistent strike capability long enough to exhaust American political patience, forcing Washington toward a premature declaration of success or an unfavorable ceasefire.

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