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Not enough long range missiles to make a difference for Ukraine

Not enough long range missiles to make a difference for Ukraine

But letting Kyiv strike deep into Russia could lead us right into war

Europe

Russia and the West are quickly running out of maneuvering room to avoid a head-on military collision.

In the wake of reports that the United States and United Kingdom are poised to approve the use of Western missiles to attack deep inside of Russia, Russian president Putin yesterday made his most pointed comments to date by claiming the move would “change the very nature of the conflict” and would mean NATO and Russia were “at war.” He warned that Russia would take “appropriate decisions.” 

In response, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated, “Russia started this conflict. Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Russia can end this conflict straight away. Ukraine has the right to self-defense.”

The military logic for testing Russia’s resolve on this matter is unclear. There is little reason to believe that using air-launched cruise missiles will significantly increase Ukraine’s chances of winning what has become a war of attrition, in which the Russians have enormous advantages over Ukraine in population and military manufacturing. The Russians are wearing down the Ukrainians’ ability to put well trained, well equipped forces into battle, and air-launched cruise missiles will not change that.

Second, the Russians can adjust to longer-range Ukrainian strike capabilities, as they have already adjusted to the provision of HIMARS artillery and ATACMS ground launched missiles. They have moved supply depots, for example, and they have grown more effective in their use of electronic warfare countermeasures to neutralize advanced Western weaponry.

Third, to have a real impact on Ukraine’s ability to damage the Russian homeland, the West would have to supply very large numbers of very long-range missiles — well beyond the small numbers of basic range models that reportedly are being considered. But the West has limited capacity to provide such numbers, and their provision would almost inevitably provoke direct Russian retaliation.

The political logic behind green-lighting deep strikes into Russia is also obscure. There is little reason for optimism that such attacks would build pressure on Putin to end the war or drive him to the negotiating table, but there is good reason for concern that they will amplify his claims that Russia is fighting NATO, not the Ukrainian people. There are many examples in history of large-scale bombing campaigns’ galvanizing public resistance, and so far that has proved true with Russia’s own strikes on Ukraine, which have stoked Ukrainian patriotism and anti-Russian attitudes.

Another potential unintended consequence is that the escalating lethality of Western military support will harden Russian demands at any future bargaining table. The more the West shows that it is willing to use Ukraine to strike into Russia, the more that Russians will insist on extensive Ukrainian demilitarization as a condition of a settlement.

The risks, on the other hand, are quite significant in comparison to the meager rewards. The biggest danger is that Russia will feel compelled to “restore deterrence,” to show the West that it cannot endlessly increase the lethality and range of weapons it provides to Ukraine without some direct response from Russia. Putin will be under pressure in his own country to draw a hard line with some clear strike on a Western target, lest the West just keep deepening its involvement until Russia has few options other than large-scale war with NATO — which Putin clearly wants to avoid.

What “appropriate measures” might Putin take? Russia is very unlikely to react immediately with nuclear escalation. Instead, it could vastly increase its existing acts of sabotage in Europe (which up to now have been more in the nature of warning shots than major attacks); provide missiles and satellite intelligence to Hezbollah or the Houthis; or, if it feels the need to go further, attack Western satellites, which are key to targeting and guidance for Ukrainian strikes.

Any of these actions could do serious damage to the West and provoke Western responses that would drive further an extremely dangerous cycle of mutual escalation, the end of which cannot be foreseen.

Only Putin knows where he might draw a hard line. But given the dangers of direct war between the world’s biggest nuclear powers, it is quite risky for us to keep pushing to discover where that line might be.

Russia cannot win this war unconditionally. It cannot conquer, occupy, and govern all of Ukraine’s vast territory, which would require an invading and occupying force many times the size of Russia’s current military. But it can wreck Ukraine, leaving it in such a state of dysfunction that it cannot be rebuilt or ally with anyone.

It is not in the West’s interest and not in Ukraine’s interest to make it more difficult to reach a settlement that preserves Ukraine’s independence and provides opportunity for a prosperous future.

What Ukraine desperately needs right now is not long-range weapons. It is a viable plan for achieving a negotiated end to this war that gives Ukraine a realistic chance to rebuild itself and prosper.


Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiha, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L to R) enter the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry building in Kyiv, Ukraine, on September 11, 2024. NO USE RUSSIA. NO USE BELARUS. (Photo by Ukrinform/NurPhoto)NO USE FRANCE

Europe
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The Bunker appears originally at the Project on Government Oversight and is republished here with permission.


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Blob exploiting Trump's anger with Putin, risking return to Biden's war

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Donald Trump’s recent outburst against Vladimir Putin — accusing the Russian leader of "throwing a pile of bullsh*t at us" and threatening devastating new sanctions — might be just another Trumpian tantrum.

The president is known for abrupt reversals. Or it could be a bargaining tactic ahead of potential Ukraine peace talks. But there’s a third, more troubling possibility: establishment Republican hawks and neoconservatives, who have been maneuvering to hijack Trump’s “America First” agenda since his return to office, may be exploiting his frustration with Putin to push for a prolonged confrontation with Russia.

Trump’s irritation is understandable. Ukraine has accepted his proposed ceasefire, but Putin has refused, making him, in Trump’s eyes, the main obstacle to ending the war.

Putin’s calculus is clear. As Ted Snider notes in the American Conservative, Russia is winning on the battlefield. In June, it captured more Ukrainian territory and now threatens critical Kyiv’s supply lines. Moscow also seized a key lithium deposit critical to securing Trump’s support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone strikes have intensified.

Putin seems convinced his key demands — Ukraine’s neutrality, territorial concessions in the Donbas and Crimea, and a downsized Ukrainian military — are more achievable through war than diplomacy.

Yet his strategy empowers the transatlantic “forever war” faction: leaders in Britain, France, Germany, and the EU, along with hawks in both main U.S. parties. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claims that diplomacy with Russia is “exhausted.” Europe’s war party, convinced a Russian victory would inevitably lead to an attack on NATO (a suicidal prospect for Moscow), is willing to fight “to the last Ukrainian.” Meanwhile, U.S. hawks, including liberal interventionist Democrats, stoke Trump’s ego, framing failure to stand up to Putin’s defiance as a sign of weakness or appeasement.

Trump long resisted this pressure. Pragmatism told him Ukraine couldn’t win, and calling it “Biden’s war” was his way of distancing himself, seeking a quick exit to refocus on China, which he has depicted as Washington’s greater foreign threat. At least as important, U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine has been unpopular with his MAGA base.

But his June strikes on Iran may signal a hawkish shift. By touting them as a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program (despite Tehran’s refusal so far to abandon uranium enrichment), Trump may be embracing a new approach to dealing with recalcitrant foreign powers: offer a deal, set a deadline, then unleash overwhelming force if rejected. The optics of “success” could tempt him to try something similar with Russia.

This pivot coincides with a media campaign against restraint advocates within the administration like Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon policy chief who has prioritized China over Ukraine and also provoked the opposition of pro-Israel neoconservatives by warning against war with Iran. POLITICO quoted unnamed officials attacking Colby for wanting the U.S. to “do less in the world.” Meanwhile, the conventional Republican hawk Marco Rubio’s influence grows as he combines the jobs of both secretary of state and national security adviser.

What Can Trump Actually Do to Russia?
 

Nuclear deterrence rules out direct military action — even Biden, far more invested in Ukraine than Trump, avoided that risk. Instead, Trump ally Sen.Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), another establishment Republican hawk, is pushing a 500% tariff on nations buying Russian hydrocarbons, aiming to sever Moscow from the global economy. Trump seems supportive, although the move’s feasibility and impact are doubtful.

China and India are key buyers of Russian oil. China alone imports 12.5 million barrels daily. Russia exports seven million barrels daily. China could absorb Russia’s entire output. Beijing has bluntly stated it “cannot afford” a Russian defeat, ensuring Moscow’s economic lifeline remains open.

The U.S., meanwhile, is ill-prepared for a tariff war with China. When Trump imposed 145% tariffs, Beijing retaliated by cutting off rare earth metals exports, vital to U.S. industry and defense. Trump backed down.

At the G-7 summit in Canada last month, the EU proposed lowering price caps on Russian oil from $60 a barrel to $45 a barrel as part of its 18th sanctions package against Russia. Trump rejected the proposal at the time but may be tempted to reconsider, given his suggestion that more sanctions may be needed. Even if Washington backs the measure now, however, it is unlikely to cripple Russia’s war machine.

Another strategy may involve isolating Russia by peeling away Moscow’s traditionally friendly neighbors. Here, Western mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan isn’t about peace — if it were, pressure would target Baku, which has stalled agreements and threatened renewed war against Armenia. The real goal is to eject Russia from the South Caucasus and create a NATO-aligned energy corridor linking Turkey to Central Asia, bypassing both Russia and Iran to their detriment.

Central Asia itself is itself emerging as a new battleground. In May 2025, the EU has celebrated its first summit with Central Asian nations in Uzbekistan, with a heavy focus on developing the Middle Corridor, a route for transportation of energy and critical raw materials that would bypass Russia. In that context, the EU has committed €10 billion in support of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

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On June 30, President Trump signed an executive order terminating the majority of U.S. sanctions on Syria. The move, which would have been unthinkable mere months ago, fulfilled a promise he made at an investment forum in Riyadh in May.“The sanctions were brutal and crippling,” he had declared to an audience of primarily Saudi businessmen. Lifting them, he said, will “give Syria a chance at greatness.”

The significance of this statement lies not solely in the relief that it will bring to the Syrian people. His remarks revealed an implicit but rarely admitted truth: sanctions — often presented as a peaceful alternative to war — have been harming the Syrian people all along.

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