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Diplomacy Watch: Ukraine and Europe brace for Trump

Uncertainty reigns amid Russian gains and active North Korean battalions

Reporting | QiOSK

Ukraine and its NATO neighbors nervously congratulated Donald Trump on his election this week, as the president-elect appears set to bring a dramatic reduction in support for Ukraine in its defense against Russia.

Trump spent his election campaign questioning the U.S. commitment to Ukraine, calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “one of the greatest salesmen” on Oct. 14 and blaming him for the war. Trump also hinted that he may push for a truce on terms unfavorable to Kyiv — saying back in June that he’d “have that settled” before even taking office early next year.

Trump will now choose his precise Ukraine policy from a competing set of adviser approaches, the Wall Street Journal reports, with all of them united by a sharp diversion from the Biden administration’s unwavering loyalty to the Ukrainians.

One of those policy paths, according to several people close to Trump, involves Ukraine promising not to join NATO for at least 20 years in exchange for continuous American military funding to deter any future Russian aggression. From there, the front line as it stands would become an 800-mile demilitarized zone, though it is unclear who would police such a zone.

“We can do training and other support but the barrel of the gun is going to be European. We are not sending American men and women to uphold peace in Ukraine," a Trump team member said. "And we are not paying for it. Get the Poles, Germans, British and French to do it.”

Reporting from POLITICO highlights the views taken this week by Ukrainian leaders like Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the foreign relations committee in Ukraine’s parliament — calling a Trump presidency “maybe difficult, challenging, but not necessarily bad” for the nation.

Leaders across Europe reacted in a similar manner of trepidation. Germany’s top diplomat made an unannounced visit to Kyiv Monday in an apparent show of European support on the eve of the consequential election.

Zelenskyy himself congratulated Trump on Wednesday, using the opportunity to emphasize his push for continued mutual support between Ukraine and NATO.

"Ukraine, as one of Europe's strongest military powers, is committed to ensuring long-term peace and security in Europe and the Transatlantic community with the support of our allies," Zelenskyy said. "I am looking forward to personally congratulating President Trump and discussing ways to strengthen Ukraine's strategic partnership with the United States."

Other Ukraine News This Week:

Ukrainian forces have directly engaged with North Korean troops for the first time, The New York Times reported. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov appeared on South Korean television network KBS on Thursday, saying they expected a “more significant number” of direct engagements in the coming weeks. Zelenskyy said the development has opened a “new page of instability in the world.

The U.S. estimates there are now 11,000 to 12,000 North Korean troops inside Russia with at least 10,000 in its Kursk Oblast region bordering Ukraine, Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said in a Pentagon press briefing on Monday. Ryder did not outline a specific shift in the direction or scale of American support based on these developments.

Zelenskyy and others have stepped up pressure on allies since the presence of North Korean troops was confirmed, according to Al Jazeera. “We see an increase in North Koreans, but we don’t see any increase in the reaction from our partners,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly address on Tuesday.

Zelensky also called on the West to lift restrictions on long-range weapons to enable a preemptive Ukrainian strike on North Korean troops in Russia, according to Business Insider. Zelensky said last Friday that Ukraine can see “every site” where Russia has been accumulating North Korean troops on its territory and could reach them with a long-range strike, if given permission from its partners.

The Wall Street Journal said Monday that European security officials have linked Russian agents to a plot to smuggle explosives onto a cargo plane in Germany in a suspected “trial run” for future attacks targeting aircraft headed for the U.S. and Canada. The Journal described the development as part of an escalating Russian “sabotage campaign” against the U.S. and its allies.

From State Department Press Briefing on Nov. 4

Apart from several questions about the State Department and Pentagon’s aforementioned intelligence on North Korean troops in Russia, Ukraine was not addressed at this briefing.


top image: Diplomacy Watch: Ukraine and Europe brace for Trump presidency
Reporting | QiOSK
Trump Zelensky
Top photo credit: Joshua Sukoff / Shutterstock.com

Blob exploiting Trump's anger with Putin, risking return to Biden's war

Europe

Donald Trump’s recent outburst against Vladimir Putin — accusing the Russian leader of "throwing a pile of bullsh*t at us" and threatening devastating new sanctions — might be just another Trumpian tantrum.

The president is known for abrupt reversals. Or it could be a bargaining tactic ahead of potential Ukraine peace talks. But there’s a third, more troubling possibility: establishment Republican hawks and neoconservatives, who have been maneuvering to hijack Trump’s “America First” agenda since his return to office, may be exploiting his frustration with Putin to push for a prolonged confrontation with Russia.

Trump’s irritation is understandable. Ukraine has accepted his proposed ceasefire, but Putin has refused, making him, in Trump’s eyes, the main obstacle to ending the war.

Putin’s calculus is clear. As Ted Snider notes in the American Conservative, Russia is winning on the battlefield. In June, it captured more Ukrainian territory and now threatens critical Kyiv’s supply lines. Moscow also seized a key lithium deposit critical to securing Trump’s support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone strikes have intensified.

Putin seems convinced his key demands — Ukraine’s neutrality, territorial concessions in the Donbas and Crimea, and a downsized Ukrainian military — are more achievable through war than diplomacy.

Yet his strategy empowers the transatlantic “forever war” faction: leaders in Britain, France, Germany, and the EU, along with hawks in both main U.S. parties. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claims that diplomacy with Russia is “exhausted.” Europe’s war party, convinced a Russian victory would inevitably lead to an attack on NATO (a suicidal prospect for Moscow), is willing to fight “to the last Ukrainian.” Meanwhile, U.S. hawks, including liberal interventionist Democrats, stoke Trump’s ego, framing failure to stand up to Putin’s defiance as a sign of weakness or appeasement.

Trump long resisted this pressure. Pragmatism told him Ukraine couldn’t win, and calling it “Biden’s war” was his way of distancing himself, seeking a quick exit to refocus on China, which he has depicted as Washington’s greater foreign threat. At least as important, U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine has been unpopular with his MAGA base.

But his June strikes on Iran may signal a hawkish shift. By touting them as a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program (despite Tehran’s refusal so far to abandon uranium enrichment), Trump may be embracing a new approach to dealing with recalcitrant foreign powers: offer a deal, set a deadline, then unleash overwhelming force if rejected. The optics of “success” could tempt him to try something similar with Russia.

This pivot coincides with a media campaign against restraint advocates within the administration like Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon policy chief who has prioritized China over Ukraine and also provoked the opposition of pro-Israel neoconservatives by warning against war with Iran. POLITICO quoted unnamed officials attacking Colby for wanting the U.S. to “do less in the world.” Meanwhile, the conventional Republican hawk Marco Rubio’s influence grows as he combines the jobs of both secretary of state and national security adviser.

What Can Trump Actually Do to Russia?
 

Nuclear deterrence rules out direct military action — even Biden, far more invested in Ukraine than Trump, avoided that risk. Instead, Trump ally Sen.Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), another establishment Republican hawk, is pushing a 500% tariff on nations buying Russian hydrocarbons, aiming to sever Moscow from the global economy. Trump seems supportive, although the move’s feasibility and impact are doubtful.

China and India are key buyers of Russian oil. China alone imports 12.5 million barrels daily. Russia exports seven million barrels daily. China could absorb Russia’s entire output. Beijing has bluntly stated it “cannot afford” a Russian defeat, ensuring Moscow’s economic lifeline remains open.

The U.S., meanwhile, is ill-prepared for a tariff war with China. When Trump imposed 145% tariffs, Beijing retaliated by cutting off rare earth metals exports, vital to U.S. industry and defense. Trump backed down.

At the G-7 summit in Canada last month, the EU proposed lowering price caps on Russian oil from $60 a barrel to $45 a barrel as part of its 18th sanctions package against Russia. Trump rejected the proposal at the time but may be tempted to reconsider, given his suggestion that more sanctions may be needed. Even if Washington backs the measure now, however, it is unlikely to cripple Russia’s war machine.

Another strategy may involve isolating Russia by peeling away Moscow’s traditionally friendly neighbors. Here, Western mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan isn’t about peace — if it were, pressure would target Baku, which has stalled agreements and threatened renewed war against Armenia. The real goal is to eject Russia from the South Caucasus and create a NATO-aligned energy corridor linking Turkey to Central Asia, bypassing both Russia and Iran to their detriment.

Central Asia itself is itself emerging as a new battleground. In May 2025, the EU has celebrated its first summit with Central Asian nations in Uzbekistan, with a heavy focus on developing the Middle Corridor, a route for transportation of energy and critical raw materials that would bypass Russia. In that context, the EU has committed €10 billion in support of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

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Lifting sanctions on Syria exposes their cruel intent

Middle East

On June 30, President Trump signed an executive order terminating the majority of U.S. sanctions on Syria. The move, which would have been unthinkable mere months ago, fulfilled a promise he made at an investment forum in Riyadh in May.“The sanctions were brutal and crippling,” he had declared to an audience of primarily Saudi businessmen. Lifting them, he said, will “give Syria a chance at greatness.”

The significance of this statement lies not solely in the relief that it will bring to the Syrian people. His remarks revealed an implicit but rarely admitted truth: sanctions — often presented as a peaceful alternative to war — have been harming the Syrian people all along.

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The 8-point buzzsaw facing any invasion of Taiwan

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Within that framework, a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan has become the scenario most often cited as the likeliest flashpoint for a military confrontation between the two superpowers.

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