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Diplomacy Watch: Ukraine and Europe brace for Trump

Uncertainty reigns amid Russian gains and active North Korean battalions

Reporting | QiOSK

Ukraine and its NATO neighbors nervously congratulated Donald Trump on his election this week, as the president-elect appears set to bring a dramatic reduction in support for Ukraine in its defense against Russia.

Trump spent his election campaign questioning the U.S. commitment to Ukraine, calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “one of the greatest salesmen” on Oct. 14 and blaming him for the war. Trump also hinted that he may push for a truce on terms unfavorable to Kyiv — saying back in June that he’d “have that settled” before even taking office early next year.

Reporting from POLITICO highlights the views taken this week by Ukrainian leaders like Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the foreign relations committee in Ukraine’s parliament — calling a Trump presidency “maybe difficult, challenging, but not necessarily bad” for the nation.

Leaders across Europe reacted in a similar manner of trepidation. Germany’s top diplomat made an unannounced visit to Kyiv Monday in an apparent show of European support on the eve of the consequential election.

Zelenskyy himself congratulated Trump on Wednesday, using the opportunity to emphasize his push for continued mutual support between Ukraine and NATO.

"Ukraine, as one of Europe's strongest military powers, is committed to ensuring long-term peace and security in Europe and the Transatlantic community with the support of our allies," Zelenskyy said. "I am looking forward to personally congratulating President Trump and discussing ways to strengthen Ukraine's strategic partnership with the United States."

Trump will now choose his precise Ukraine policy from a competing set of adviser approaches, the Wall Street Journal reports, with all of them united by a sharp diversion from the Biden administration’s unwavering loyalty to the Ukrainians.

Other Ukraine News This Week:

Ukrainian forces have directly engaged with North Korean troops for the first time, The New York Times reported. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov appeared on South Korean television network KBS on Thursday, saying they expected a “more significant number” of direct engagements in the coming weeks. Zelenskyy said the development has opened a “new page of instability in the world.

The U.S. estimates there are now 11,000 to 12,000 North Korean troops inside Russia with at least 10,000 in its Kursk Oblast region bordering Ukraine, Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said in a Pentagon press briefing on Monday. Ryder did not outline a specific shift in the direction or scale of American support based on these developments.

Zelenskyy and others have stepped up pressure on allies since the presence of North Korean troops was confirmed, according to Al Jazeera. “We see an increase in North Koreans, but we don’t see any increase in the reaction from our partners,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly address on Tuesday.

Zelensky also called on the West to lift restrictions on long-range weapons to enable a preemptive Ukrainian strike on North Korean troops in Russia, according to Business Insider. Zelensky said last Friday that Ukraine can see “every site” where Russia has been accumulating North Korean troops on its territory and could reach them with a long-range strike, if given permission from its partners.

The Wall Street Journalsaid Monday that European security officials have linked Russian agents to a plot to smuggle explosives onto a cargo plane in Germany in a suspected “trial run” for future attacks targeting aircraft headed for the U.S. and Canada. The Journal described the development as part of an escalating Russian “sabotage campaign” against the U.S. and its allies.

From State Department Press Briefing on Nov. 4

Apart from several questions about the State Department and Pentagon’s aforementioned intelligence on North Korean troops in Russia, Ukraine was not addressed at this briefing.

Diplomacy Watch:

Diplomacy Watch: Ukraine and Europe brace for Trump presidency

Reporting | QiOSK
Western leader blurts out what was once taboo on Ukraine
Top photo credit: Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky pictured at a visit to Neder-Over-Heembeek military hospital, Thursday 17 October 2024, in Brussels. Belgium welcomed three Ukrainian soldiers since September 2024 in the military hospital, specialized for burn patients. BELGA PHOTO DIRK WAEM.

Western leader blurts out what was once taboo on Ukraine

Europe

This week, Politico scooped the news: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, before meeting NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Berlin, informally voiced opposition to Ukraine’s prospects for an alliance membership, suggesting instead a “Finlandization” option — a neutral status like Finland maintained between NATO and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and for the subsequent three decades between NATO and Russia.

According to the report, his suggestion was mulled amid talk in Berlin of setting up a “contact group” together with China, India, and Brazil in search of a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine. This idea was not raised during the meeting with Rutte as it does not yet represent a consolidated position of the German government — an unwieldy coalition of Scholz’s war-weary Social Democrats, ardently pro-Ukraine Greens, and fiscal hawks in the liberal Free Democrats party (FDP).

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Israel seeks to deport suspected terrorists’ families
Top image credit: Itamar Ben-Gvir, Minister of National Security of Israel, shouts at the opening of the 25th Knesset session marking the anniversary of the “Iron Swords” war on Monday, in Jerusalem, October 28, 2024. DEBBIE HILL/Pool via REUTERS

Israel seeks to deport suspected terrorists’ families

QiOSK

Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, approved a piece of legislation on Thursday that gives the government permission to deport family members of those who Israel labels as “terrorists.” This law affects Israelis, as well as Palestinian citizens.

The law was sponsored by Hanoch Milwidsky, a member of the right-wing Likud party. If the legislation goes unchallenged by the courts, it would allow the interior minister to deport parents, siblings, or spouses of anyone labeled as a terrorist, if that person has “expressed support or identification” or failed to report information concerning an act of terror, or terror organization. Al Jazeera’s Nour Odeh points out that one potential issue with this policy is that “all Palestinian factions are labeled as terrorist organizations by Israel.” Additionally, expressing sympathy for the humanitarian situation in Gaza has previously been labeled as being sympathetic to terror.

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Military slammed by new mold revelations in military housing
Mold in barracks found during visits from Government Accountability Office investigators. (Image via GAO)
Mold, raw sewage, brown tap water found in US barracks

Military slammed by new mold revelations in military housing

QiOSK

Thousands of active-duty U.S. military service members and their families living in privatized military housing across the country are facing issues related to the unaddressed presence of mold in their homes, according to a new investigation by the Project on Government Oversight (POGO).

Their findings, published in POGO (and in Rolling Stone) on Oct. 24 by investigative reporter René Kladzyk, showcases the experiences of several families in dealing with the physical and mental health consequences of toxic mold. It also underscores the complex relationship between these families, the U.S. military, and the issues stemming from privatized military family housing.

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