Follow us on social

Taiwan is not a vital US interest

Taiwan is not a vital US interest

A war with China over the island should be off the table (VIDEO)

Analysis | QiOSK

Those who say that Taiwan is a vital U.S. interest often cite the island’s strategic location, the U.S.’ moral obligation to defend it as a long-time ally, and the need for the U.S. to maintain credibility as a partner that will come to the defense of its allies.

But as Michael Swaine says in a new Quincy Institute video below, the U.S. has no formal security treaty agreements with Taiwan, whereas it does with Japan and South Korea — countries that do not want the U.S. to go to war with China. And, Swaine adds, these arguments are inadequate when weighed against what a conflict with China over Taiwan would actually look like.

War with China would be a “really major destructive war, a magnitude of destruction in life and property and a disruption of the international system that goes beyond anything that we've really seen since World War Two,” Swaine says. “Up to $10 trillion — 10% of global GDP — could be wiped away. You could have deaths in the many thousands on both sides.”

“If you're going to go to war with the Chinese over this issue, it had better be a vital interest of the United States. It's an important interest. It’s not a vital interest.”

Video produced by Khody Akhavi, senior video producer at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft


Video credit: YouTube: TAIWAN NOT A VITAL INTEREST -- The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

Analysis | QiOSK
Trump's most underrated diplomatic win: Belarus
Top image credit: Brian Jason and Siarhei Liudkevich via shutterstock.com

Trump's most underrated diplomatic win: Belarus

Europe

Rarely are foreign policy scholars and analysts blessed with as crystalline a case study in abject failure as the Western approach to Belarus since 2020. From promoting concrete security interests, advancing human rights to everything in between, there is no metric by which anything done toward Minsk can be said to have worked.

But even more striking has been the sheer sense of aggrieved befuddlement with the Trump administration for acknowledging this reality and seeking instead to repair ties with Belarus.

keep readingShow less
These Israeli-backed gangs could wreck the Gaza ceasefire
Ashraf al-Mansi walks in front of members of his Popular Army militia. The group, previously known as the Counter-Terrorism Service, has worked with the Israeli military and is considered by many in Gaza to be a criminal gang. (Via the Facebook page of Yasser Abu Shabab)

These Israeli-backed gangs could wreck the Gaza ceasefire

Middle East

Frightening images have emerged from Gaza in the week since a fragile ceasefire took hold between Israel and Hamas. In one widely circulated video, seven blindfolded men kneel in line with militants arrayed behind them. Gunshots ring out in unison, and the row of men collapse in a heap as dozens of spectators look on.

The gruesome scenes appear to be part of a Hamas effort to reestablish control over Gaza through a crackdown on gangs and criminal groups that it says have proliferated during the past two years of war and chaos. In the minds of Israel and its backers, the killings reveal Hamas’ true colors — and represent a preview of what the group may do if it’s allowed to maintain some degree of power.

keep readingShow less
Poland farmers protest EU
Top photo credit: Several thousand people rally against a proposed EU migration scheme in Warsaw, Poland on 11 October, 2025. In a rally organized by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party thousands gathered to oppose the EU migration pact and an agriculture deal with Mercosur countries. (Photo by Jaap Arriens / Sipa USA)

Poland’s Janus face on Ukraine is untenable

Europe

Of all the countries in Europe, Poland grapples with deep inconsistencies in its approach to both Russia and to Ukraine. As a result, the pro-Europe coalition government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk is coming under increasing pressure as the duplicity becomes more evident.

In its humanitarian response to Ukraine since the war began in 2022, Poland has undoubtedly been one of the most generous among European countries. Its citizens and NGOs threw open their doors to provide food and shelter to Ukrainian women and children fleeing for safety. By 2023, over 1.6 million Ukrainian refugees had applied for asylum or temporary protection in Poland, with around 1 million still present in Poland today.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.