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US-Iran talks Saturday surprise with momentum towards a real deal

Trump has a chance to score a better deal than 2015 agreement

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Another round of constructive nuclear talks has been held with the help of the Omani mediators and Italian hosts. Though it is too early for a breakthrough, the momentum remains positive and is growing.

As a critical sign of strong political will on both sides for a deal, the pace of the talks is increasing, with technical talks being held in four days and another round of political discussions in seven days, according to officials.

While success is far from guaranteed, a pathway to success is starting to emerge. Still, hard issues remain unresolved, such as Tehran's demands for airtight guarantees that the US will stick to the deal.

But Trump has a chance to score a better deal than the 2015 agreement due to a willingness to put primary sanctions relief on the table. The opening of the Iranian market to American companies is a win-win. Iran's economy is in dire need of relief, and American companies would benefit greatly from access to this major, largely untapped market. The presence of American companies in the Iranian market may also be the most efficient political guarantee that the US will stick to the agreement.

Oman's constructive role continues to impress. Some countries help America find peace. And then there are countries trying to drag America into war. America is very fortunate to have Oman as a friend.


People and police members stand at one of the entrances of the Omani embassy, where the second round of US-Iran talks is taking place, in Rome, Italy, April 19, 2025. REUTERS/Vincenzo Livieri

US iran talks

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Will Democrats pop Trump's $50 billion trial balloon for war?
Top image credit: Sens. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) sit look on during a congressional hearing in January, 2025. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Sipa USA)

Will Democrats pop Trump's $50 billion trial balloon for war?

Washington Politics

On Wednesday, Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) told CNN that he would support new funding for the U.S. war with Iran — but only if Israel and Arab Gulf states help pay for it.

“We’re using our taxpayer money to protect those countries,” Gallego said. “We’re using our men to protect these countries. They need to throw in and have skin in the game too.”

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Polymarket Iran War
Top photo credit: Polymarket logo (Shutterstock/PJ McDonald) and Scene following an airstrike on an Iranian police centre damaging residential buildings around it in Niloofar square in central Tehran on march 1, 2026. (Hamid Vakili/Parspix/ABACAPRESS.COM)

Prediction markets are a national security threat

Latest

Hours before an Israeli attack in Tehran killed Ayatollah Khamenei, an account on the prediction market Polymarket made over half a million dollars wagering that Iran’s Supreme Leader would vacate office before 3/31. That account, named “Magamyman,” was not the only one to cash in on the attacks.

Half a dozen Polymarket accounts made over $1.2M betting that the U.S. “strikes Iran by February 28, 2026.” Those accounts were allegedly paid for through cryptocurrency wallets that had previously not been funded prior to Feb. 27. Overall, prediction market users bet over $255M on markets related to the attacks in Iran on the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket alone.

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Top photo credit: (Shutterstock/Triawanda Tirta Aditya)

Trump's ‘move fast and break things’ war slams into economy

Middle East

The launch of joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran could lead to economic and financial disruptions that ripple across the countries of the Global South with devastating effects. And while a quick end to the war could dampen these effects, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has acknowledged that the war could even last up to 8 weeks, and Israel is now reportedly expecting a "weeks-long" war with Iran.

The fundamental issue here seems to be an increasingly expansive vision of American — and particularly Israeli — war aims. These have now gone well beyond Iran’s offer of substantial denuclearization to regime change, and some quarters have even more extreme visions like the potential Balkanization of Iran into multiple statelets. Such mission creep on the part of the U.S. and Israel has in turn changed incentive structures in Iran towards an expansion of the conflict to target both the Gulf States and global oil markets, a dynamic that threatens to broaden the conflict and extend it, with profound impacts on the global economy.

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