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US-Iran talks Saturday surprise with momentum towards a real deal

Trump has a chance to score a better deal than 2015 agreement

QiOSK
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Another round of constructive nuclear talks has been held with the help of the Omani mediators and Italian hosts. Though it is too early for a breakthrough, the momentum remains positive and is growing.

As a critical sign of strong political will on both sides for a deal, the pace of the talks is increasing, with technical talks being held in four days and another round of political discussions in seven days, according to officials.

While success is far from guaranteed, a pathway to success is starting to emerge. Still, hard issues remain unresolved, such as Tehran's demands for airtight guarantees that the US will stick to the deal.

But Trump has a chance to score a better deal than the 2015 agreement due to a willingness to put primary sanctions relief on the table. The opening of the Iranian market to American companies is a win-win. Iran's economy is in dire need of relief, and American companies would benefit greatly from access to this major, largely untapped market. The presence of American companies in the Iranian market may also be the most efficient political guarantee that the US will stick to the agreement.

Oman's constructive role continues to impress. Some countries help America find peace. And then there are countries trying to drag America into war. America is very fortunate to have Oman as a friend.


People and police members stand at one of the entrances of the Omani embassy, where the second round of US-Iran talks is taking place, in Rome, Italy, April 19, 2025. REUTERS/Vincenzo Livieri

US iran talks

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UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan receives Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the Presidential Airport in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates November 27, 2019. WAM/Handout via REUTERS

Is the US goading Arab states to join war against Iran?

QiOSK

On Sunday, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Mike Waltz told ABC News that Arab Gulf states may soon step up their involvement in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. “I expect that you'll see additional diplomatic and possibly military action from them in the coming days and weeks,” Waltz said.

Then, on Monday morning, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) slammed Saudi Arabia for staying out of the war even as “Americans are dying and the U.S. is spending billions” of dollars to conduct regime change in Iran. “If you are not willing to use your military now, when are you willing to use it?” Graham asked. “Hopefully this changes soon. If not, consequences will follow.”

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Why Tehran may have time on its side
Top image credit: Iranian army military personnel stand at attention under a banner featuring an image of an Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) during a military parade commemorating the anniversary of Army Day outside the Shrine of Iran's late leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the south of Tehran, Iran, on April 18, 2025. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto)

Why Tehran may have time on its side

QiOSK

A provocative calculus by Anusar Farrouqui (“policytensor”) has been circulating on X and in more exhaustive form on the author’s Substack. It purports to demonstrate a sobering reality: in a high-intensity U.S.-Iran conflict, the United States may be unable to suppress Iranian drone production quickly enough to prevent a strategically consequential period of regional devastation.

The argument is framed through a quantitative lens, carrying the seductive appeal of mathematical precision. It arranges variables—such as U.S. sortie rates and degradation efficiency against Iranian repair cycles and rebuild speeds—to suggest a "sustainable firing rate." The implication is that Iran could maintain a persistent strike capability long enough to exhaust American political patience, forcing Washington toward a premature declaration of success or an unfavorable ceasefire.

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Ignorance about war powers plays right into Trump's hands
Top image credit: US House Speaker Mike Johnson arrives for press briefing at Columbia University in New York on April 24, 2024. (Shutterstock/lev radin)

Ignorance about war powers plays right into Trump's hands

Washington Politics

This week efforts under the War Powers Act to check President Trump’s unconstitutional and unauthorized war in Iran failed on a mostly party line split in both the House and the Senate. The result isn’t all that surprising. The naivety, however, on the role of Congress in matters of war is staggering. Congress is in desperate need of a civics refresher.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), in response to reporter questions on the application of the War Powers Act’s provisions to the president’s actions in Iran, said, “I think the president has the authority that he needs to conduct the activities. … As you know, there’s a lot of controversy around, questions around the War Powers Act, but I think the president is acting in the best interests of the nation.”

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