A few weeks ago, 92-year-old Cameroonian President Paul Biya announced his intention to run for an eighth term in the country’s forthcoming election. This announcement, shocking, albeit widely anticipated, is already fueling fear that the country’s stability could be at risk, with wider implications for regional security.
The aged leader, who has ruled Cameroon with an iron fist since 1982, is easily the oldest president anywhere in the world. Indeed, only a few Cameroonians alive remember a time without Biya in power. Yet recent health scares seem to suggest that he may have reached the limit of his natural abilities. In 2008, his regime carried out a constitutional amendment to annul the two-term limit — clearing Biya’s path to rule for life through elections that, although regular, have been neither free nor fair.
Under his 43-year rule, the country of 29 million has gone from a period of relative stability to one of crisis and conflict. Approximately four in 10 Cameroonians live below the national poverty line, while unemployment, especially among school leavers, is high. This is in spite of Cameroon's rich endowment of natural resources, including oil and natural gas, aluminum and gold.
Since 2014, Cameroon has also come under attack by Boko Haram in the far north while a secessionist insurgency is devastating the country’s Anglophone regions. Cameroon is divided into French and English-speaking regions — a development rooted in the country’s colonial past. The conflict, now in its seventh year, was precipitated in late 2016 by the state’s mishandling of peaceful protests that erupted against the application of the French civil law system by courts in the Anglophone regions. The crisis has led to over 6,000 deaths and the displacement of a million people internally and to neighboring Nigeria.
In the same vein, the Boko Haram conflict has resulted in numerous deaths and the internal displacement of well over 300,000 people, not to mention the disruption of local economies that has led to widespread food insecurity.
To combat the threat, Biya, who is known for a non-aligned foreign approach that has permitted him to play off multiple great powers, recently has had to lean quite heavily on U.S. support for funding and training of the country’s elite Rapid Intervention Brigade (BIR), as well as troops from the Multinational Joint Task Force that Washington established with Cameroon’s neighbors, Nigeria and Chad. U.S. training of Cameroon’s military personnel is valued at $600,000 annually. Washington also has a drone base with approximately 200 personnel stationed in Garoua, a city in northeastern Cameroon, to support the military in its operations against extremism. Cameroon remains one of the diminishing number of former French colonies in sub-Saharan Africa that permits foreign military bases on its territory.
At the same time, Cameroon weighs heavily on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s expansionist aims in the Sahel and West Africa. The country recently renewed a military cooperation agreement with Moscow while playing host to Afrique Média, a Russia-linked news organization generally regarded as Putin’s mouthpiece in the region. Such great-power attention illustrates Cameroon’s potential strategic importance.
In the meantime, the integrity of the October 12 election is already in jeopardy. Out of 83 candidates who submitted applications to run for president, the electoral body, Elections Cameroon, only approved 13, disqualifying Biya’s main challenger, Maurice Kamto, who was the runner-up in the 2018 elections when he won 14.2 percent of the vote. Although those disqualified from the presidential race can file a legal challenge, many Cameroonians don’t believe that anything will come of it.
With Kamto’s exclusion, Biya and his Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (RDPC) party will face less popular candidates, including two of the president’s allies, former Prime Minister Bello Bouba Maigari and Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who resigned in early June as employment minister. Unsurprisingly, their qualification has sparked accusations that Biya and the RDPC are orchestrating another sham election to retain their hold on power.
The resulting situation has heightened political tensions and fueled fears of unrest. On June 12, the U.S. Embassy in Yaounde, the capital, called for respect for press freedom and urged all parties concerned with the electoral process to act in a manner that “promotes peace, respects the rule of law, and upholds democratic norms.” But the situation remains uncertain as security forces have been deployed in the economic hub, Douala, and Yaounde, especially around the headquarters of the electoral council in anticipation of protests.
Biya’s insistence on running is, to put it mildly, bewildering. In a now distant era, Africa’s longstanding aging leaders, such as Senegal’s Léopold Sédar Senghor or Kenya’s Daniel Arap Moi, planned for their succession to both ensure a peaceful transition and preserve their legacies.. Biya’s current gambit suggests he has no such plans. His apparent determination to continue to rule until he nearly turns 100 — presidential terms run seven years — spells trouble to many Cameroonians.
Indeed, in a country where more than 60% of the population is under 25, Biya’s ambition may prove too much for the public and for the ambitions of other members of the ruling elite as they jockey for position in a post-Biya period. To a growing number of analysts, the evolving situation, especially if public protests become widespread and militant, could create a pretext for a military coup. Historically, Cameroon’s army has been loyal to Biya who has only experienced a coup once early in his long rule. Reputed as a master-manipulator of the security forces, Biya has managed to keep ambition in check by keeping the armed forces fragmented and through regular reshuffling.
But as the developments witnessed in Gabon just two years ago show, the specter of coup cannot be fully discounted in a situation of political stasis. In August 2023, Gabonese elite presidential guard mounted a coup that ended the half-century rule of the Bongo dynasty. The irony was that the coup occurred just hours after then-President Ali Bongo had pulled out all the stops to win an unconstitutional third term through an election that all observers, local and foreign, agree was neither free nor fair.
Before matters reach that point in Cameroon, regional bodies, including the African Union, the Economic Community of Central African States, and the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) may be able to exert influence on the upcoming electoral process to ensure greater inclusivity and adherence to basic democratic norms in the runup to the October election. The forthcoming poll is not simply a matter for Cameroonians alone but an important question for the region as well.
