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Iran's retaliatory attacks today limited, but not insignificant

Iran's retaliatory attacks today limited, but not insignificant

'Tehran may also seek to show Trump that they are willing to strike back harder and further than he might have anticipated'

QiOSK
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Iran launched missiles at U.S. bases in Qatar today in what is being called "calculated retaliation" for Saturday's U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites.

Iranian officials had reportedly sent advanced warning of the attack on Al Udeid Air Base, which had already been evacuated. President Donald Trump said the missiles were intercepted and no casualties reported.

Trita Parsi, co-founder and Executive Vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, wrote on X that the attacks may have been limited — for now. But they should not be read as merely symbolic or face-saving.

"Of course (they) have significant implications for Iran's relations with these [Gulf Cooperation Council] states — but also [GCC] relations with the US, mindful of their opposition to Trump's strikes and anger at him for disregarding their security and interests," he wrote. "And Tehran may also seek to show Trump that they are willing to strike back harder and further than he might have anticipated."

He said there is a chance they would be limited in the ways that both sides telegraphed their retaliations in 2020 so as to avoid escalation.

"There is a scenario, similar to the 2020 strikes against Iraqi bases, in which both sides call it quits after one round of fire," said Parsi. "But I find that scenario unstable because of the Israeli element. Israel will continue to strike Iran and vice versa, and as long as that is the case, the Israelis will continue to put relentless pressure on Trump to join the war in various ways."

Annelle Sheline, Middle East research fellow at the Quincy Institute, noted that Trump had "needlessly put U.S. troops in the Middle East in Iran’s crosshairs" with Saturday's attacks.

“As commander in chief, the safety of Americans should be his highest priority, yet by attacking Iran when it posed no threat, Trump demonstrated his complete disregard for U.S. troops stationed in the region, as well as those who will lose their lives if the war escalates.”

Neighboring Gulf states Bahrain and Kuwait, which also host U.S. military bases, closed their air spaces after the attack; they have since re-opened them.

Article is being updated as story is develops


Top photo credit: FOX News Channel/Screengrab
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Dan Caine
Top photo credit: Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff U.S. Air Force Gen. Dan Caine conduct a press briefing on Operation Epic Fury at the Pentagon, Washington, D.C., March 4, 2026. (DoW photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Alexander Kubitza)

Did Caine just announce the Morgenthau option for Iran?

QiOSK

Gen. Dan Caine’s formulation of American war aims in Iran is remarkable not because it is bellicose, but because it is strategically incoherent.

In a press conference Tuesday morning, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff did not describe a limited campaign to suppress missile fire, blunt Iran’s naval threat, or even impose a severe but bounded setback on Tehran’s coercive instruments. He described a campaign against Iran’s “military and industrial base” designed to prevent the regime from attacking Americans, U.S. interests, and regional partners “for years to come.” In an earlier briefing he put the objective similarly: to prevent Iran from projecting power outside its borders. Rather than the language of a discrete coercive operation, this describes a war against a state’s capacity to regenerate power.

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Mbs-mbz-scaled
UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan receives Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the Presidential Airport in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates November 27, 2019. WAM/Handout via REUTERS

Is the US goading Arab states to join war against Iran?

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On Sunday, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Mike Waltz told ABC News that Arab Gulf states may soon step up their involvement in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. “I expect that you'll see additional diplomatic and possibly military action from them in the coming days and weeks,” Waltz said.

Then, on Monday morning, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) slammed Saudi Arabia for staying out of the war even as “Americans are dying and the U.S. is spending billions” of dollars to conduct regime change in Iran. “If you are not willing to use your military now, when are you willing to use it?” Graham asked. “Hopefully this changes soon. If not, consequences will follow.”

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Why Tehran may have time on its side
Top image credit: Iranian army military personnel stand at attention under a banner featuring an image of an Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) during a military parade commemorating the anniversary of Army Day outside the Shrine of Iran's late leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the south of Tehran, Iran, on April 18, 2025. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto)

Why Tehran may have time on its side

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A provocative calculus by Anusar Farrouqui (“policytensor”) has been circulating on X and in more exhaustive form on the author’s Substack. It purports to demonstrate a sobering reality: in a high-intensity U.S.-Iran conflict, the United States may be unable to suppress Iranian drone production quickly enough to prevent a strategically consequential period of regional devastation.

The argument is framed through a quantitative lens, carrying the seductive appeal of mathematical precision. It arranges variables—such as U.S. sortie rates and degradation efficiency against Iranian repair cycles and rebuild speeds—to suggest a "sustainable firing rate." The implication is that Iran could maintain a persistent strike capability long enough to exhaust American political patience, forcing Washington toward a premature declaration of success or an unfavorable ceasefire.

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