Follow us on social

Second Thomas Shoal

US Admiral: US escorts for Philippine ships 'reasonable'

Manila's tensions with China are bad enough without Washington's intrusion in the South China Sea skirmishes

QiOSK

U.S. INDOPACOM commander Admiral Samuel Paparo’s comments on U.S. escorts of Philippine vessels on resupply missions being “entirely reasonable” has taken the jostling in the South China Sea up a notch.

Such missions to a Philippine military position on a beached ship on the Second Thomas Shoal, which China also claims, have drawn coercive responses from Beijing. An egregious example was the serious clash on June 17, during which Chinese coast guard personnel brandished weapons and forcibly boarded Philippine craft.

The latest incidents are however expanding to new sites — most prominently Sabina Shoal, located even closer to Philippines’ shoreline than the Second Thomas Shoal. These have involved blocking and multiple cases of ramming.

Provocative as Chinese behavior is, it is questionable if deeper involvement of the U.S. Navy is the answer. Direct insertion of U.S. troops between the sparring parties would up the ante and dare China to confront the U.S. directly. It would transform the current lower-level incidents into potentially a direct clash between two great powers. The risk-to-reward ratio from the standpoint of U.S. vital interests, not to mention regional stability, does not seem to merit such a step, especially when the jostling is over mere specks in the ocean. This is especially true as some of Washington’s policies are themselves contributing to the escalation. Besides, Manila too has demurred on any such escorts (but has indicated that they are not ruled out in the future.)

Admiral Paparo also mentioned the escorts “in the context of consultations,” a reference to Articles III and V of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT), which calls for such consultations and indicates invocation in case of “armed attack” on one of the parties. Manila itself has stated, in comments soon after the June 17 clash, that Chinese provocations do not rise to the level of “armed attack” thus far. President Marcos meanwhile drew a red line for the MDT’s invocation as the death of even a single Filipino during his remarks at this year’s Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore. Fortunately, we are not there yet.

Whichever way one slices the developments in the South China Sea, it is clear they are incrementally heading toward a military crisis. Avoiding such a crisis by finding a de-escalatory ladder should be the first priority of all three states involved.


A Philippine flag flutters from BRP Sierra Madre, a dilapidated Philippine Navy ship that has been aground since 1999 and became a Philippine military detachment on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands, in the South China Sea March 29, 2014. REUTERS/Erik De Castro

QiOSK
Alexander Vindman's new book is a folly: of history, and the truth
Top photo credit: Alexander Vindman (Philip Yabut/Shutterstock) and the cover of his new book (publisher, PublicAffairs)

Alexander Vindman's new book is a folly: of history, and the truth

Europe

Alexander Vindman’s recent book, “The Folly of Realism,”throws down the gauntlet, as the name suggests, at the “realists” he thinks were responsible for failing to deter Russia and seize opportunities for defense cooperation with Ukraine.

According to Vindman, the former National Security Council official who testified against President Trump during his impeachment trial in 2019, this “realist” behavior incentivized Moscow’s continued imperialist predations, culminating in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

keep readingShow less
Trump should take the victory in Canada and move on
Top photo credit: Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney (Yan Parisien; bella1105 via shutterstock)

Trump should take the victory in Canada and move on

North America

Just days after replacing Justin Trudeau and becoming Canada’s 24th prime minister, Mark Carney has advised Governor General Mary Simon to dissolve Parliament. Canadians will now head to the polls on April 28 for a long awaited and highly anticipated federal election.

Trudeau had announced his intention to resign as prime minister and Liberal Party leader on January 6, having served more than nine years as Canada’s head of government. Opinion polling had shown an increasingly sizable lead for the rival Conservative Party over the preceding 18 months, with about 25 percentage points separating the two parties by the time Trudeau announced he was stepping down.

keep readingShow less
arrest free speech
Top photo credit: Spaxiax/Shutterstock

Does Vance’s free speech defense in Munich not apply here?

Global Crises

At the Munich Security Conference in mid-February, U.S. Vice President JD Vance warned Europe not to back away from one of the West’s most basic democratic values: free speech.

“In Washington there is a new sheriff in town," he said, "and under Donald Trump’s leadership, we may disagree with your views, but we will fight to defend your right to offer it in the public square, agree or disagree.”

keep readingShow less

Trump transition

Latest

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.