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2022-11-21t070526z_1583726763_rc25qx92vq76_rtrmadp_3_indonesia-usa-defense-scaled

Indonesia’s audacious Ukraine play is a message from the Global South

Jakarta wants to make sure it's included in any conversation about shaping the future world order.

Analysis | Europe

Indonesia’s Ukraine peace plan, presented by its Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto at the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore, has been met with scorn and derision in Europe. 

His Ukrainian counterpart Oleksii Reznikov said it sounded like a “Russian plan.” The European Union’s high representative for foreign policy Josep Borrell, in an apparent reference to the plan, called instead for a “just peace” and not a “peace of surrender.” 

There is no official reaction from Washington at the time of writing, but it is highly likely to be negative. It seems that the Atlantic community members, by and large, just can't let go of the idea that the aggressor must be entirely expelled before any peace conversations can be taken up in earnest — even if such a military outcome may never come to pass, and if it does, it carries within it a high chance of escalation.

But this is not how Southeast Asia, and much of the Global South, sees it. While most ASEAN states have clearly condemned the Russian invasion at the United Nations and prefer Moscow to withdraw (and there should be no doubt that the Russian action was a grand violation of international law), they don’t think their job is to then conveniently go to the back of the class. They know well how a protracted war in Europe affects their people through inflation, supply chain disruptions, and an even deeper global polarization that makes solutions to the world’s common challenges even harder to achieve. And the risk of escalation, in the worst case, could lead to a much more terrible outcome.

The details of Jakarta’s plan — a rapid ceasefire, creation of a buffer zone, and a referendum supervised by the United Nations — are less important. Indonesia, which not insignificantly is also chair of ASEAN this year, probably knows very well that its proposal is unlikely to have much of a life, considering the current mood within the Atlantic community. 

But the importance of Prabowo's speech is not about actions and solutions on the ground that might flow from them. The speech itself is the act. It has the value of challenging the claim of only one morally correct viewpoint of the Ukraine war — that of Washington and its close allies. 

Beyond the generally accepted view that the invasion was a violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity and that nuclear weapons should not be used in the conflict, there is no consensus on how to trade off peace and justice in ending this war. Much of the Global South believes that the pursuit of perfect justice, when increasingly impractical and extremely costly, may ultimately yield neither peace nor justice. Prabowo seemed to refer to that when he spoke of the horrors experienced by the region before the end of the Cold War and the rise of ASEAN mightily contributed to its current prosperity and stability.

Indonesia’s bold play also has another message for Washington — we are here and are not going away. A friend and well-wisher of the United States, Jakarta nevertheless dares to suggest, like Brazil and India have, that middle powers like it in the Global South have a stake in the world order and will not shy from asserting their voice to participate in and shape the conversation. 

And they are right. The United States’ power to shape the future world order single-handedly, or even in lockstep with its closest allies, is less and less in evidence. Nor is any other power, or combination of powers likely to take its place. A solutions-oriented approach, rather than a moralistic, messianic one, demands a spirit of hard-headed compromise in which Global South states will need to be included at the heart of the conversation. Indonesia’s proposal should be seen in this light.


Indonesia's Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto in November 2022. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/Pool
Analysis | Europe
Trump Zelensky
Top photo credit: Joshua Sukoff / Shutterstock.com

Blob exploiting Trump's anger with Putin, risking return to Biden's war

Europe

Donald Trump’s recent outburst against Vladimir Putin — accusing the Russian leader of "throwing a pile of bullsh*t at us" and threatening devastating new sanctions — might be just another Trumpian tantrum.

The president is known for abrupt reversals. Or it could be a bargaining tactic ahead of potential Ukraine peace talks. But there’s a third, more troubling possibility: establishment Republican hawks and neoconservatives, who have been maneuvering to hijack Trump’s “America First” agenda since his return to office, may be exploiting his frustration with Putin to push for a prolonged confrontation with Russia.

Trump’s irritation is understandable. Ukraine has accepted his proposed ceasefire, but Putin has refused, making him, in Trump’s eyes, the main obstacle to ending the war.

Putin’s calculus is clear. As Ted Snider notes in the American Conservative, Russia is winning on the battlefield. In June, it captured more Ukrainian territory and now threatens critical Kyiv’s supply lines. Moscow also seized a key lithium deposit critical to securing Trump’s support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone strikes have intensified.

Putin seems convinced his key demands — Ukraine’s neutrality, territorial concessions in the Donbas and Crimea, and a downsized Ukrainian military — are more achievable through war than diplomacy.

Yet his strategy empowers the transatlantic “forever war” faction: leaders in Britain, France, Germany, and the EU, along with hawks in both main U.S. parties. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claims that diplomacy with Russia is “exhausted.” Europe’s war party, convinced a Russian victory would inevitably lead to an attack on NATO (a suicidal prospect for Moscow), is willing to fight “to the last Ukrainian.” Meanwhile, U.S. hawks, including liberal interventionist Democrats, stoke Trump’s ego, framing failure to stand up to Putin’s defiance as a sign of weakness or appeasement.

Trump long resisted this pressure. Pragmatism told him Ukraine couldn’t win, and calling it “Biden’s war” was his way of distancing himself, seeking a quick exit to refocus on China, which he has depicted as Washington’s greater foreign threat. At least as important, U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine has been unpopular with his MAGA base.

But his June strikes on Iran may signal a hawkish shift. By touting them as a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program (despite Tehran’s refusal so far to abandon uranium enrichment), Trump may be embracing a new approach to dealing with recalcitrant foreign powers: offer a deal, set a deadline, then unleash overwhelming force if rejected. The optics of “success” could tempt him to try something similar with Russia.

This pivot coincides with a media campaign against restraint advocates within the administration like Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon policy chief who has prioritized China over Ukraine and also provoked the opposition of pro-Israel neoconservatives by warning against war with Iran. POLITICO quoted unnamed officials attacking Colby for wanting the U.S. to “do less in the world.” Meanwhile, the conventional Republican hawk Marco Rubio’s influence grows as he combines the jobs of both secretary of state and national security adviser.

What Can Trump Actually Do to Russia?
 

Nuclear deterrence rules out direct military action — even Biden, far more invested in Ukraine than Trump, avoided that risk. Instead, Trump ally Sen.Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), another establishment Republican hawk, is pushing a 500% tariff on nations buying Russian hydrocarbons, aiming to sever Moscow from the global economy. Trump seems supportive, although the move’s feasibility and impact are doubtful.

China and India are key buyers of Russian oil. China alone imports 12.5 million barrels daily. Russia exports seven million barrels daily. China could absorb Russia’s entire output. Beijing has bluntly stated it “cannot afford” a Russian defeat, ensuring Moscow’s economic lifeline remains open.

The U.S., meanwhile, is ill-prepared for a tariff war with China. When Trump imposed 145% tariffs, Beijing retaliated by cutting off rare earth metals exports, vital to U.S. industry and defense. Trump backed down.

At the G-7 summit in Canada last month, the EU proposed lowering price caps on Russian oil from $60 a barrel to $45 a barrel as part of its 18th sanctions package against Russia. Trump rejected the proposal at the time but may be tempted to reconsider, given his suggestion that more sanctions may be needed. Even if Washington backs the measure now, however, it is unlikely to cripple Russia’s war machine.

Another strategy may involve isolating Russia by peeling away Moscow’s traditionally friendly neighbors. Here, Western mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan isn’t about peace — if it were, pressure would target Baku, which has stalled agreements and threatened renewed war against Armenia. The real goal is to eject Russia from the South Caucasus and create a NATO-aligned energy corridor linking Turkey to Central Asia, bypassing both Russia and Iran to their detriment.

Central Asia itself is itself emerging as a new battleground. In May 2025, the EU has celebrated its first summit with Central Asian nations in Uzbekistan, with a heavy focus on developing the Middle Corridor, a route for transportation of energy and critical raw materials that would bypass Russia. In that context, the EU has committed €10 billion in support of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

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On June 30, President Trump signed an executive order terminating the majority of U.S. sanctions on Syria. The move, which would have been unthinkable mere months ago, fulfilled a promise he made at an investment forum in Riyadh in May.“The sanctions were brutal and crippling,” he had declared to an audience of primarily Saudi businessmen. Lifting them, he said, will “give Syria a chance at greatness.”

The significance of this statement lies not solely in the relief that it will bring to the Syrian people. His remarks revealed an implicit but rarely admitted truth: sanctions — often presented as a peaceful alternative to war — have been harming the Syrian people all along.

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For the better part of a decade, China has served as the “pacing threat” around which American military planners craft defense policy and, most importantly, budget decisions.

Within that framework, a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan has become the scenario most often cited as the likeliest flashpoint for a military confrontation between the two superpowers.

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