Follow us on social

Diplomacy Watch: Putin blinks, returns to Black Sea grain deal after just 4 days

Diplomacy Watch: Putin blinks, returns to Black Sea grain deal after just 4 days

The move signals that Russia has lines it’s not willing to cross, but it also shows how hawkish elements in Moscow want to change that.

Europe

Russia announced on Saturday that it planned to pull out of the Black Sea grain deal days after Ukrainian drones attacked Russian warships near the Crimean city of Sevastopol. Moscow claimed that the move violated the agreement and accused the British of helping to carry out the attack.

The decision threatened to put an end to the widely acclaimed diplomatic initiative, which has alleviated a global food crisis by allowing approximately 10 million metric tons of grain to be shipped out of Ukrainian ports since July.

In response, Turkey, Ukraine, and the United Nations — the other main parties to the deal — called Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bluff and continued to send grain ships through the Black Sea.

On Wednesday, Putin flipped on his decision and announced that Russia would rejoin the deal. Russia justified the decision by saying that it had “managed to obtain necessary written guarantees from Ukraine not to use the humanitarian corridor and Ukrainian ports ... for military actions against the Russian Federation.”

But others had a more straightforward read of the situation. “Faced with the choice of sinking third-country merchant ships or an embarrassing climbdown, Putin chose a climbdown,” tweeted Yaroslav Trofimov of the Wall Street Journal.

Putin seems to have been sobered by the backlash to his brinkmanship. Now, he says that he won’t do anything to obstruct the supply of grain from Ukraine to Turkey even if he withdraws from the deal again in the future. Put simply, Putin blinked.

Among other things, the episode should assuage Western fears that Putin will use the deal as leverage to extract concessions from other world powers at the G20 later this month. And it signals that, despite his penchant for brutality in military affairs, Putin does have some lines that he’s not willing to cross (in this case, shooting at commercial ships carrying potentially life-saving food).

On a less positive note, it also gives a glimpse into how domestic pressure could influence Putin’s future decision-making on diplomacy. As the New York Times noted, hawkish Russian bloggers — some of whom have millions of followers on social media — have harshly criticized the decision to rejoin the deal as a sign of “weakness,” with one even saying that it looks like “a humiliating defeat for Moscow.”

It’s difficult to assess exactly how much these attacks will affect Kremlin policy, but there’s little doubt that Putin will have them in the back of his mind next time he’s faced with a potentially embarrassing decision.

In other diplomatic news related to the war in Ukraine:

— President Joe Biden lost his temper with Zelensky in June when the Ukrainian leader began listing off his further needs moments after Biden promised an additional $1 billion in military aid, according to NBC News. The pair appear to have patched things up, but, as NBC News notes, the spat could be a harbinger of more challenging politics around future aid packages. While Congress has so far been happy to sign off on enormous amounts of assistance, some on both sides of the aisle have started to question whether billions of dollars in further support is the best way to allocate America’s resources.

— On Saturday, Ukraine and Russia exchanged more than 100 prisoners of war, according to the New York Times. The trade shows that the two adversaries are keeping at least some lines of communication open, though talks on broader issues remain stalled.

— On Thursday and Friday, the Group of Seven (G7) held a series of foreign minister-level meetings that focused on countering China and coordinating support for Ukraine, according to Reuters.

— Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embaló met with Putin last week, saying after the meeting that the Russian leader is “ready for negotiations with President Zelensky,” according to i24 News. Embaló shared that message with Zelensky during a subsequent meeting, earning a skeptical response from the Ukrainian president. “In order for there to be bridges between one country and another, the one needs to not blow up the other’s infrastructure,” Zelensky said.

— In the New York Times, Charles Kupchan of Georgetown University argued that the United States should push for peace talks in Ukraine. 

“To limit the potential for a wider conflict between NATO and Russia, Washington needs Kyiv to be more transparent about its war plans and U.S. officials need more input into Kyiv’s conduct of the war. [...]

Sooner rather than later, the West needs to move Ukraine and Russia from the battlefield to the negotiating table, brokering a diplomatic effort to shut the war down and arrive at a territorial settlement.”

U.S. State Department news:

In a Tuesday press conference, State Department spokesperson Ned Price confirmed that Biden does not plan to speak with Putin at the G20 later this month. “I don’t expect that there will be discussions between the United States and Russia in the context of the G20,” Price said.


Europe
US Navy Taiwan Strait
TAIWAN STRAIT (August 23, 2019) – US Naval Officers scan the horizon from the bridge while standing watch, part of Commander, Amphibious Squadron 11, operating in the Indo-Pacific region to enhance interoperability with partners and serve as a ready-response force for any type of contingency. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Markus Castaneda)

Despite setbacks, trends still point to US foreign policy restraint

Military Industrial Complex

It’s been only a few days since Israel first struck Iranian nuclear and regime targets, but Washington’s remaining neoconservatives and long-time Iran hawks are already celebrating.

After more than a decade of calling for military action against Iran, they finally got their wish — sort of. The United States did not immediately join Israel’s campaign, but President Donald Trump acquiesced to Israel’s decision to use military force and has not meaningfully restrained Israel’s actions. For those hoping Trump would bring radical change to U.S. foreign policy, his failure to halt Israel’s preventative war is a disappointment and a betrayal of past promises.

keep readingShow less
iraqi protests iran israel
Top photo credit: Iraqi Shi'ite Muslims hold a cutout of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as they attend a protest against Israeli strikes on Iran, in Baghdad, Iraq, June 16, 2025. REUTERS/Ahmed Saad

Iraq on razor's edge between Iran and US interests in new war

Middle East

As Israeli jets and Iranian rockets streak across the Middle Eastern skies, Iraq finds itself caught squarely in the crossfire.

With regional titans clashing above its head, Iraq’s fragile and hard-won stability, painstakingly rebuilt over decades of conflict, now hangs precariously in the balance. Washington’s own tacit acknowledgement of Iraq’s vulnerable position was laid bare by its decision to partially evacuate embassy personnel in Iraq and allow military dependents to leave the region.

This withdrawal, prompted by intelligence indicating Israeli preparations for long-range strikes, highlighted that Iraq’s airspace would be an unwitting corridor for Israeli and Iranian operations.

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani is now caught in a complicated bind, attempting to uphold Iraq’s security partnership with the United States while simultaneously facing intense domestic pressure from powerful, Iran-aligned Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) factions. These groups, emboldened by the Israel-Iran clash, have intensified their calls for American troop withdrawal and threaten renewed attacks against U.S. personnel, viewing them as legitimate targets and enablers of Israeli aggression.

keep readingShow less
George Bush mission accomplished
This file photo shows Bush delivering a speech to crew aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, as the carrier steamed toward San Diego, California on May 1, 2003. via REUTERS

Déjà coup: Iran war activates regime change dead-enders

Washington Politics

By now you’ve likely seen the viral video of an Iranian television reporter fleeing off-screen as Israel bombed the TV station where she was recording live. As the Quincy Institute’s Adam Weinstein quickly pointed out, Israel's attack on the broadcasting facility is directly out of the regime change playbook, “meant to shake public confidence in the Iranian government's ability to protect itself” and by implication, Iran’s citizenry.

Indeed, in the United States there is a steady drumbeat of media figures and legislators who have been loudly championing Israel’s apparent desire to overthrow the regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.