Follow us on social

Shutterstock_1856692081

New attacks on Armenia call for immediate Western diplomatic engagement

The recent strikes by Azerbaijan beyond Nagorno-Karabakh show the frightening potential for war on Russia's periphery to spread.

Analysis | Europe

On the night of September 12, the Azerbaijani army launched a wave of attacks against Armenia. These went well beyond the Armenian-backed separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh, but attacks on Armenia itself — representing a drastic escalation of the 30-year-old conflict between the two countries.

Azerbaijan has claimed that it was provoked by Armenian shelling. According to news Wednesday night, both sides have come to a ceasefire agreement, though the Associated Press has reported protests in the streets of the capital, "accusing Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of betraying his country by trying to appease Azerbaijan and demanding his resignation."

Early analysis suggests that stalled negotiations on the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and Russia’s distraction in Ukraine are the driving forces behind Baku’s decision to strike now.

The latest fighting shows the frightening potential for the war on Russia’s periphery to spread. Far greater diplomatic engagement by the United States and the West is necessary to stop this from happening.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who held a phone call earlier this week with Pashinyan, was ambiguous about who Washington holds responsible for the outbreak of violence. The State Department said the secretary had expressed his “deep concern over the military actions along the Armenian-Azerbaijan border, including reports of shelling in Armenia.”

The secretary stressed the need for disengagement of military forces and assured Prime Minister Pashinyan that the United States would push for an immediate halt to fighting and a peace settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” according the statement.

What Blinken and other Western officials fail to acknowledge so far is that these hostilities are the direct result of Baku’s confidence in using force to resolve an issue that other parties believe requires a diplomatic solution. While Blinken also spoke with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, very limited public pressure has been applied, although he urged Aliyev “to cease hostilities.”

The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War saw a similar lackluster response across Western institutions and their respective capitals. The war resulted in a Turkish-backed and armed Azerbaijan reclaiming most of the Azerbaijani territory held by Armenians since the First Nagorno-Karabakh war of the early 1990s, as well as taking control of parts of Nagorno-Karabakh itself.

The hostilities abated with a Russian-brokered ceasefire and the deployment of 2,000 Russian peacekeeping troops. However, negotiations over various steps in the implementation of the ceasefire agreement have slowed recently, much to Baku’s displeasure, and no progress at all has been made in negotiations on the political status of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Over the last month, increased Azerbaiijani military activity on the border with Armenia had raised fears in Yerevan that something larger was brewing. With the Russian military tied down and suffering heavily in Ukraine, little to no response from the West, and a newly minted EU energy deal that highlights European dependence on Baku’s plentiful energy resources, Aliyev apparently saw few obstacles to his plan to circumvent diplomacy and resort to direct intimidation and aggressive military advances.

Azerbaijan has received massive help from Turkey — which remains a NATO member that hosts a major U.S. air base at Incirlik.

France (which, like the United States, contains a large Armenian-origin community) has already stated that it will bring this latest conflict to the United Nations Security Council, a conversation the United States should encourage and support with the intention of ensuring peace and stability throughout the region alongside a lasting settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

The renewed fighting in the Caucasus at this time is certainly not in Moscow’s interest. But nor is a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the interests of the United States, if only for the precedent it may set for other countries, particularly along Russia’s periphery, to use force to achieve their own territorial ambitions against their neighbors. The most immediate threat is that Georgia will repeat its attempt of 2008 to regain its lost territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by force. As if on cue on Tuesday, the ruling Georgian Dream Party said it may organize a nationwide referendum on instigating a war with Russia, according to a statement made during a briefing by its chairman Irakli Kobakhidze.

That would certainly lead to a massive new international crisis. Should Russia prevail (which, despite Russia’s losses in Ukraine still seems probable, given the immense disproportion of Georgian and Russian resources), Washington would be faced with the choice of abandoning a country it has described as a key partner or opening a new front against Russia.

This is an urgent moment, and proponents of a diplomatic solution between Armenia and Azerbaijan must come forward to work towards a lasting resolution to a conflict that has taken far too many lives in the more than 30 years since fighting initially broke out.

Editor's Note: Artin Dersimonian was an intern at the Armenian Embassy in Washington in 2018. The Terjenian-Thomas Assembly Internship Program at the Armenian Assembly — which is mentioned in the QI brief on which this article is based — facilitated Dersimonian's internship with the embassy.


Division of Nagorno-Karabakh under the 2020 peace deal. Outline geographic map. (Shutterstock/Kamilewski)
Analysis | Europe
Trump Zelensky
Top photo credit: Joshua Sukoff / Shutterstock.com

Blob exploiting Trump's anger with Putin, risking return to Biden's war

Europe

Donald Trump’s recent outburst against Vladimir Putin — accusing the Russian leader of "throwing a pile of bullsh*t at us" and threatening devastating new sanctions — might be just another Trumpian tantrum.

The president is known for abrupt reversals. Or it could be a bargaining tactic ahead of potential Ukraine peace talks. But there’s a third, more troubling possibility: establishment Republican hawks and neoconservatives, who have been maneuvering to hijack Trump’s “America First” agenda since his return to office, may be exploiting his frustration with Putin to push for a prolonged confrontation with Russia.

Trump’s irritation is understandable. Ukraine has accepted his proposed ceasefire, but Putin has refused, making him, in Trump’s eyes, the main obstacle to ending the war.

Putin’s calculus is clear. As Ted Snider notes in the American Conservative, Russia is winning on the battlefield. In June, it captured more Ukrainian territory and now threatens critical Kyiv’s supply lines. Moscow also seized a key lithium deposit critical to securing Trump’s support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone strikes have intensified.

Putin seems convinced his key demands — Ukraine’s neutrality, territorial concessions in the Donbas and Crimea, and a downsized Ukrainian military — are more achievable through war than diplomacy.

Yet his strategy empowers the transatlantic “forever war” faction: leaders in Britain, France, Germany, and the EU, along with hawks in both main U.S. parties. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claims that diplomacy with Russia is “exhausted.” Europe’s war party, convinced a Russian victory would inevitably lead to an attack on NATO (a suicidal prospect for Moscow), is willing to fight “to the last Ukrainian.” Meanwhile, U.S. hawks, including liberal interventionist Democrats, stoke Trump’s ego, framing failure to stand up to Putin’s defiance as a sign of weakness or appeasement.

Trump long resisted this pressure. Pragmatism told him Ukraine couldn’t win, and calling it “Biden’s war” was his way of distancing himself, seeking a quick exit to refocus on China, which he has depicted as Washington’s greater foreign threat. At least as important, U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine has been unpopular with his MAGA base.

But his June strikes on Iran may signal a hawkish shift. By touting them as a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program (despite Tehran’s refusal so far to abandon uranium enrichment), Trump may be embracing a new approach to dealing with recalcitrant foreign powers: offer a deal, set a deadline, then unleash overwhelming force if rejected. The optics of “success” could tempt him to try something similar with Russia.

This pivot coincides with a media campaign against restraint advocates within the administration like Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon policy chief who has prioritized China over Ukraine and also provoked the opposition of pro-Israel neoconservatives by warning against war with Iran. POLITICO quoted unnamed officials attacking Colby for wanting the U.S. to “do less in the world.” Meanwhile, the conventional Republican hawk Marco Rubio’s influence grows as he combines the jobs of both secretary of state and national security adviser.

What Can Trump Actually Do to Russia?
 

Nuclear deterrence rules out direct military action — even Biden, far more invested in Ukraine than Trump, avoided that risk. Instead, Trump ally Sen.Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), another establishment Republican hawk, is pushing a 500% tariff on nations buying Russian hydrocarbons, aiming to sever Moscow from the global economy. Trump seems supportive, although the move’s feasibility and impact are doubtful.

China and India are key buyers of Russian oil. China alone imports 12.5 million barrels daily. Russia exports seven million barrels daily. China could absorb Russia’s entire output. Beijing has bluntly stated it “cannot afford” a Russian defeat, ensuring Moscow’s economic lifeline remains open.

The U.S., meanwhile, is ill-prepared for a tariff war with China. When Trump imposed 145% tariffs, Beijing retaliated by cutting off rare earth metals exports, vital to U.S. industry and defense. Trump backed down.

At the G-7 summit in Canada last month, the EU proposed lowering price caps on Russian oil from $60 a barrel to $45 a barrel as part of its 18th sanctions package against Russia. Trump rejected the proposal at the time but may be tempted to reconsider, given his suggestion that more sanctions may be needed. Even if Washington backs the measure now, however, it is unlikely to cripple Russia’s war machine.

Another strategy may involve isolating Russia by peeling away Moscow’s traditionally friendly neighbors. Here, Western mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan isn’t about peace — if it were, pressure would target Baku, which has stalled agreements and threatened renewed war against Armenia. The real goal is to eject Russia from the South Caucasus and create a NATO-aligned energy corridor linking Turkey to Central Asia, bypassing both Russia and Iran to their detriment.

Central Asia itself is itself emerging as a new battleground. In May 2025, the EU has celebrated its first summit with Central Asian nations in Uzbekistan, with a heavy focus on developing the Middle Corridor, a route for transportation of energy and critical raw materials that would bypass Russia. In that context, the EU has committed €10 billion in support of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

keep readingShow less
Syria sanctions
Top image credit: People line up to buy bread, after Syria's Bashar al-Assad was ousted, in Douma, on the outskirts of Damascus, Syria December 23, 2024. REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra

Lifting sanctions on Syria exposes their cruel intent

Middle East

On June 30, President Trump signed an executive order terminating the majority of U.S. sanctions on Syria. The move, which would have been unthinkable mere months ago, fulfilled a promise he made at an investment forum in Riyadh in May.“The sanctions were brutal and crippling,” he had declared to an audience of primarily Saudi businessmen. Lifting them, he said, will “give Syria a chance at greatness.”

The significance of this statement lies not solely in the relief that it will bring to the Syrian people. His remarks revealed an implicit but rarely admitted truth: sanctions — often presented as a peaceful alternative to war — have been harming the Syrian people all along.

keep readingShow less
The 8-point buzzsaw facing any invasion of Taiwan
Taipei skyline, Taiwan. (Shutterstock/ YAO23)

The 8-point buzzsaw facing any invasion of Taiwan

Asia-Pacific

For the better part of a decade, China has served as the “pacing threat” around which American military planners craft defense policy and, most importantly, budget decisions.

Within that framework, a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan has become the scenario most often cited as the likeliest flashpoint for a military confrontation between the two superpowers.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.