Follow us on social

2022-08-02t145641z_1977909314_rc2eov9ss2uk_rtrmadp_3_somalia-politics

Can an ex-al-Shabab deputy-turned-Somali official open space for talks?

Easing of international sanctions paved the way for this former militant’s appointment, providing a model for locally-led peace efforts.

Analysis | Africa

The recent appointment of a former al-Shabab deputy Mukhtar Robow (aka Abut Mansur) as the Minister of Endowment and Religion in Somalia’s new cabinet has generated considerable debate about what Robow’s appointment means for the war on terror in Somalia as well as for potential reconciliation efforts.

Some have questioned the foresight as well as the perceived injustice of appointing someone who played an integral role in history of al-Shabab, an organization that has committed terrible atrocities against civilian populations. While Robow’s appointment is unlikely to have reverberations within al-Shabab, his political history nonetheless underscores the possibility as well as the importance of negotiations and reconciliation between high-ranking members of al-Shabab and the Somali government.

Reconciling with members of al-Shabab might not be as far-fetched as it appears provided the international community (particularly the United States and Europe) refrains from negatively intervening in Somali politics. External actors driven by their own priorities and moral judgements have distorted Somali politics preventing the emergence of genuine and historically grounded political solutions. 

Mukhtar Robow was born in 1969 in the Bakool region of southern Somalia. A fertile region considered Somalia’s breadbasket. After obtaining basic religious education in Somalia, he, like many Somali students, traveled to Sudan, one of the few countries accepting Somali students after the disintegration of the Somali state in 1991, to attend university. He studied the Sharia in Sudan in the 1990s. Thereafter, he ended up in Afghanistan where he trained in al-Qaida training camps.

Upon his return to Somalia, he played a key role in the founding of al-Shabab in the early 2000s. At that point al-Shabab was a small nucleus of like-minded militants within a larger Islamic movement in Mogadishu known as the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC). Al-Shabab’s ascendency as the militant Islamist organization in Somalia came after a U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion of Mogadishu disbanded the UIC. The underground insurgency that emerged against the occupying Ethiopian forces coalesced around al-Shabab, propelling it into the most powerful and militant Islamist organization in Somalia.

Robow became a prominent and charismatic member of al-Shabab, developing a reputation as a moderate voice within the movement. An internal schism of al-Shabab’s leadership in 2013 led to the assassination of several important leaders and the defections of others. Mukhtar Robow was among those who broke with al-Shabab accusing then leader Ahmed Godane of dictatorial tendencies and mistreatment of foreign militants in the group’s ranks.

Protected by militia mostly from his clan, Robow fled to his home region of Bakool. He remained there and kept a low profile until August 2017 when he surrendered to the Somali government. Importantly, his surrender was preceded by his removal from the U.S.’s Reward for Justice list in June 2017. Since 2008 he has had a $5 million bounty for information that brought him “to justice” after been included in the Treasury Department’s Specially Designated Global Terrorist list. According to the Office of Foreign Assets Control, he is still on the Treasury Department’s sanctions list and is also still on the UN Security Council’s list of individuals and entities subject to sanctions. 

Within a year after surrendering to Somali government, Robow decided to run for the presidency of his native South West State, one of five regional states (excluding Somaliland) that makeup the member states of the Somali federal government. After declaring his candidacy, Robow began to draw large crowds, which raised the prospect that he could win.

Fearing that Robow might undermine the chances of its preferred candidate, the federal government contended that he did not meet all the preconditions for political office. Despite the regional election committee disagreeing with the federal government and clearing him to stand for election, the government arrested him in December 2018 with help from the Ethiopian contingent of the African Union forces in Somalia.

Robow remained a prisoner of the government held in the headquarters of the National Intelligence and Security Agency. He was released from prison a few days prior to his appointment in early August by the incoming administration of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Robow’s political history and future aspirations reveal many layers of Somalia’s tortuous internal politics, but his political history sheds light on several aspects regarding the Global War on Terror, particularly as it relates to Somalia and al-Shabab. 

Some argue that Robow’s release from prison and ministerial appointment is significant for the war on terror in Somalia as it might encourage further defections from al-Shabab. This is highly unlikely because, as Robow had effectively left al-Shabab in 2013, at a time of real rupture within the leadership of the group. Though some fighters defected with him, his defection did not seriously weaken or threaten the insurgency. It is thus unlikely to do so now when he has been an outcast from the group for nearly 9 years.

His appointment as a minister and political trajectory does, however, raise a couple of important points regarding the war on terror in Somalia, and how U.S. policies impact the potential for defections from and negotiations with al-Shabab. First, Robow’s appointment underlines the importance of political negotiation in the face of failed militarized approaches. This is particularly necessary as it becomes increasingly clear that a military defeat of al-Shabab is proving as elusive as ever.

Second, sanctions by the international community have a negative effect on efforts at negotiation and reconciliation. On this point, it should be remembered that Robow’s surrender to the Somali government was preceded by his removal from the U.S.’s Reward for Justice list. Had Washington not removed him from the list, it is unlikely he would have surrendered. Like Robow, many of the high-ranking members of al-Shabab have bounties on their heads and are under various sanctions by the UN Security Council and the United States.

Given that negotiating with and reconciling with at least some elements of al-Shabab might become unavoidable moving forward, the negative effects of sanctions should seriously be considered. Moreover, the effect of the bounties and the sanctions is to remove the initiative for reconciliation and negotiation from local actors, continuing a history of external intervention that has produced terrible consequences for Somalis. 

It's too early to know what impact Robow's appointment will have on long term political dynamics, but it represents a possible path that can only be pursued if foreign governments and institutions reconsider sanctions as a political tool and give Somalis the space to negotiate amongst themselves, a necessary step given that they are the ones who ultimately have to live with one another.


Former al Shabaab group co-founder and spokesperson Mukhtar Robow sits among colleagues after he was named as the minister in charge of religion by Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre in Mogadishu, Somalia August 2, 2022. REUTERS/Feisal Omar
Analysis | Africa
Pope Francis
Top image credit: Fabrizio Maffei / Shutterstock.com

Pope Francis was often mocked for railing against current wars

Global Crises

No Pope had ever kissed the feet of leaders, begging them to bring peace to their country. But in April 2019, Pope Francis surprised South Sudan and the entire world when he did just that to President Salva Kiir, Vice President Riek Machar, James Wani Igga, Taban Deng Gai, and Rebecca Nyandeng De Mabior; a gesture that clearly expressed his belief that the Pontiff of the Catholic Church must be a committed and unwavering peacemaker.

Pope Francis spoke about peace until his very last breath. In his brief message before the Urbi et Orbi blessing on April 20, Easter Sunday, he mentioned peace 10 times, remembering the Holy Land and the gift of all Christians celebrating Easter on the same day, in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Ukraine, the Southern Caucasus, the Balkans, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan and South Sudan, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes region, and also Myanmar.

keep readingShow less
Donald Trump Xi Jinping
Top image credit: U.S. President Donald Trump meets with China's President Xi Jinping at the start of their bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

US-China trade war: Escalate to de-escalate to escalate?

Asia-Pacific

The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Trump is considering a significant reduction of the extraordinarily high tariffs on China that followed a dizzying tit-for-tat spiral between the two countries in early April.

China was the only country to immediately retaliate against Trump’s draconian “liberation day” tariffs, and Trump’s intolerance for that self-assertion led to 145% tariffs on the U.S. side and 125% tariffs on the Chinese side — tantamount to severing economic relations overnight between the world’s two most important economic powers.

keep readingShow less
King Abdullah Jordan
Top photo credit: King Abdullah of Jordan in Amman. (Ahmad A Atwah/Shutterstock)

Was Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood ban a bid to please Israel, Saudi?

Middle East

On Wednesday, the Jordanian government declared that it had banned the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist movement that has long been active in the kingdom.

The announcement followed arrests last week of 16 members of the group for allegedly plotting an attack inside Jordan. The interior minister stated that the group and all its affiliated activities were illegal.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.