According to the state department on Wednesday, Washington is slapping new sanctions on Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical producers, along with Hong Kong and Emirati companies accused of selling the oil on East Asia markets in violation of existing embargoes.
In a tweet, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that “absent a commitment from Iran to return to the JCPOA, an outcome we continue to pursue, we will keep using our authorities to target Iran's exports of energy products.” But is this really the best way to get back into a deal that Washington was the first to leave, and for which talks have been on thin ice and time is ticking away? Quincy Institute's Trita Parsi, author of “Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran and the Triumph of Diplomacy,” weighs in.
Responsible Statecraft is a publication of analysis, opinion, and news that seeks to promote a positive vision of U.S. foreign policy based on humility, diplomatic engagement, and military restraint. RS also critiques the ideas — and the ideologies and interests behind them — that have mired the United States in counterproductive and endless wars and made the world less secure.
Russia announced this week that its bilateral trade with China has almost completely moved away from using the U.S. dollar, highlighting the two countries’ commitment to reducing their reliance on the U.S.-led economic system.
Aside from reducing dependency on the Western-dominated global currency, these ‘de-dollarization’ efforts allow Russia and China to avoid the myriad sanctions now preventing Moscow from doing business on the international market.
Western sanctions have helped lead to a boom in trade between Moscow and Beijing since 2022, rising 26% to $240 billion this year. China has also become the world’s leading importer of Russian oil.
De-dollarization isn’t the only scheme Russia is deploying to avoid crushing sanctions. Russian officials announced last week at a United Nations meeting that the Kremlin is spending billions of dollars to dodge Western sanctions by developing new trade routes in Asia.
This plan includes two new transport corridors — one that would link Russia to Kyrgyzstan via the Caspian Sea, and another that would stretch from Belarus to Pakistan. The efforts build on previous plans to redirect trade, including the North-South Corridor, a railway route first conceived in 2000 that would connect Russia to the Indian Ocean via Iran.
After years of delays, Moscow loaned Tehran 1.3 billion euros last year to build its leg of the North-South route. Sergei Ivanov, Russia’s presidential envoy for environmental issues, said that the corridor gives Russia full access to the Persian Gulf, and that “no sanctions will affect it.” The newly announced routes would similarly allow Russia to bypass sanctions and access Asian markets.
Russia and Iran have also boosted their ability to transact with one another by linking their banking systems, as both face sanctions that limit their abilities to transact with the West.
The U.S. and European countries have heavily sanctioned Russia since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, particularly hampering the Kremlin’s ability to export oil to the West and sell it at competitive market prices. If Russia transports goods through overland corridors that are outside of the jurisdiction of the sanctioning countries, it becomes much more difficult for Western powers to interdict, noted Markus Jaeger of the Atlantic Council.
“They want to reduce the dependency and vulnerability vis-a-vis unfriendly third parties,” Jaeger said.
But if history is any guide, Russia isn’t quite in the clear yet. Sanctions on Iran, including the maximum pressure sanctions imposed during the Trump administration, played a major role in slowing the development of the North-South route. Russia is now loaning money for construction to Iran and is expected to spend approximately $3.5 billion on the project by 2030, according to Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin.
U.S. pressure has also complicated Russia’s economic rapprochement with China, which could face consequences from the West for its support of Moscow, according to Jaeger. He pointed to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s planned visit to China this week, where he reportedly intends to warn Chinese President Xi Jinping that Washington is concerned about Beijing’s provision of aid to Russia’s military.
Jaeger said that, as China engages more economically with sanctioned countries or entities in Iran or Russia, the risk of becoming the target of European and American sanctions will increase.
“For the U.S., imposing secondary sanctions that affect Chinese entities is seen as a very antagonistic step by China, which risks leading to further tensions in U.S.-Chinese relations,” he said.
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Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend a welcoming ceremony at Baghdad International Airport in Baghdad, Iraq, on April 22, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Iraq Monday for the first time since 2011, marking a potential thaw in relations between the two neighboring countries, which have long clashed over Turkish attacks on Kurdish groups in Iraq’s north.
“For the first time, we find that there is a real desire on the part of each country to move toward solutions,” Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’ al-Sudani said during a recent event at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C.
Sudani noted that the trip comes after more than a year of talks focused on addressing the biggest issues in the bilateral relationship. “For the first time, sensitive discussions are being held on every issue that represented barriers to the relationship,” he said. “And we agreed on all of these topics after a series of meetings and bilateral trips.”
The trip is a crucial part of the Sudani government’s efforts to stabilize Iraq and move forward from years of internal strife and war — a campaign made more urgent in recent weeks by escalating tensions in the region, as Iran and Israel’s shadow war has come out into the open.
Erdogan’s visit comes as Sudani returns from a week-long trip to Washington, where the Iraqi leader pitched a “new chapter” in U.S.-Iraq relations that could include a withdrawal of American troops from the country, which have become targets for Iraqi militias since the Gaza war began last year. He also sought new economic agreements and encouraged U.S. businesses to invest in Iraq.
Back in Iraq, Sudani and Erdogan were set to discuss enhanced cooperation to counter Kurdish fighters from the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), which Turkey and the U.S. consider a terrorist group. Turkey has for years mounted cross-border attacks on the PKK that have drawn backlash from the Iraqi government, citing sovereignty concerns.
In a notable shift, the two countries now say they are cooperating to fight the group. This will not, however, include joint military operations, according to Iraq’s defense minister. Questions remain about whether Iraqi officials are prepared to join Erdogan in his pledge to “permanently” destroy the organization in an operation later this year.
On the economic side, Sudani hopes the visit will lead to new agreements on trade to augment Iraq’s $17 billion “Development Road” project, which aims to increase Iraq’s capacity to serve as a transit hub for goods traveling between Asia and Europe.
Another deal will likely address the two countries’ shared water resources. Turkey controls the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which provide most of Iraq’s freshwater, and Iraqi officials are hoping to persuade Turkish leaders to increase the amount of water that reaches their country.
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A man holds a dog in his arms outside the residential building damaged by the Russian missile attack, Dnipro, eastern Ukraine, April 19, 2024. Photo by Mykola Miakshykov/Ukrinform/ABACAPRESS.COM
With the pendulum of war swinging in Russia’s favor and the Western alliance only now clearing the way for more aid to Ukraine, many have been waiting for the Institute for the Study of War to offer its take on who is to blame and what is to be done.
ISW has been one of the most referenced think tanks in mainstream media reporting on the war in Ukraine and has played a prominent role in creating and sustaining war optimism in the West in 2022 and 2023. Its daily battlefield reports have repeatedly played up Ukrainian victories and emphasized Russian failures and losses, almost always uncritically reproducing the version received from Kyiv.
Such reporting is unsurprising when we consider the specific nature of ISW as a think tank. Funded by important military contractors in America’s military industrial complex such as General Dynamics, DynCorps International, and CACI International, ISW is also a creation of the “Kagan industrial complex.” It was founded by Kimberly Kagan, the wife of military historian Frederick Kagan, who in turn is the brother of Robert Kagan — co-founder of the infamous neo-conservative think tank the Project for a New American Century. It would be remiss not to mention that Robert Kagan is married to none other than Victoria Nuland, who was until recently heading up the U.S. State Department’s policy on Ukraine and Europe.
Given the hawkish and neoconservative ideological bent of ISW’s leadership, one would not expect their stance on the war in Ukraine to change even in the light of new developments. Yet, its recent report “Denying Russia’s Only Strategy for Success” is a remarkable double down. Not only does it present the recent deterioration of Ukraine’s military prospects as a Kremlin disinformation campaign, it is also a manifesto for military escalation.
Instead of examining where the Western alliance has come up short, or any concession of Russia’s resilience and adaptation to the challenge of war, the ISW report is squarely focused on the apparent superpowers the Kremlin enjoys in the domain of “perception manipulation.” It claims the Kremlin “floods Western discourse with false and irrelevant narratives” to condition Western publics to “freely reason to a conclusion that Russia’s prevailing in Ukraine is inevitable.”
Reviewing the references the report is based on, it is clear the authors have no direct proof of Kremlin activity. Their work mostly relies on other ISW reports and cites tweets by Elon Musk and David Sacks or cherry-picked media articles as evidence of Westerners being duped by Russia.
Unpacking the central thesis of Russian disinformation, the report goes on to claim that the West has a vast superiority over Russia in terms of resources and technology and that all that is needed to defeat Vladimir Putin is “strategic clarity.” As ISW are experts in military history, it seems incredible they have forgotten the numerous historical examples of countries with superior GDP being defeated by economically and technically inferior opponents. Sidestepping such inconvenient points, the ISW report focuses on the West’s loss of clarity — be it the genuine divisions and fear within NATO or distractions caused by other issues. The blame for this is placed squarely on the Kremlin, implying that Russia has almost superhuman capacities to control Western perception.
Unsurprisingly, the report urges Westerners (referred to as “we” and “us” throughout the text) to blow this Kremlin-induced fog from their minds. In other words, if only the West can eradicate “defeatism,” return to its core “values” and “virtues” and understand the true nature of the Russian threat is in its disinformation capacities, then the rest will be simple. The Western alliance will bridge its “need gap” and produce a “surge” in support to Ukraine to ruin Putin’s dream of a Russian victory.
Once again, there is not a single sentence here that refers to the real war-making capacities of NATO or Ukraine. Where do the munitions come from? What about the manpower? Which NATO members are ready to step up their commitment? The ISW report fits into the previous track record of poor quality military analysis from neo-conservative think tanks on the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.
One must conclude that the purpose of this ISW report is in fact to boost the morale of analysts overwhelmed by pessimistic questions about the war’s new trajectory. Indeed, the ISW report dismisses talk of peace as “surrender” to Putin. It also rejects those concerned about escalation and a NATO-Russia war and explicitly saying that the West must escalate to resist Putin’s aggression. Failure to resist is tantamount to surrender.
The discourse of discrediting previous Western diplomacy with Russia as cowardly and failed appeasement is well-established and repeated in the report. ISW goes one step further by calling for the rejection of all “Russian premises” in understanding the conflict in Ukraine. This is a sure way to ensure there can be no basis for any negotiations with Russia.
This brings us to the crucial final part of the report where, having “debunked” a spectrum of points as merely part of the Kremlin’s grand perception manipulation campaign, the authors outline the logical next step in the war: a new escalation. The first part is to “deny Russia’s sanctuaries,” by which the authors mean encouraging Ukraine to have free rein in attacking targets inside the Russian Federation.
Second, they call for NATO to support new forms of asymmetric warfare to catch Russia off guard and somehow offset their increasing dominance on the frontlines. Finally, the report vaguely calls for the West to “target Russia’s capability globally,” which appears to advocate espionage, political and economic warfare, and perhaps even terrorism. In summary, the report advocates blowing up various targets connected to Russia in the hope this derails their summer offensive in Ukraine.
ISW has issued a clear call for the West to fearlessly up the ante against Russia. In reading it, one recalls the strong influence ISW has had up to this point in shaping perceptions of the war in Ukraine. What is striking is the way the group has revealed its own hand as a crucial agent not in supplying objective and accurate military reports but in waging information warfare. One could even say that ISW itself “floods Western discourse” to condition U.S. public opinion to “freely conclude” that it is necessary to escalate against Russia.
Although deeper research is needed, it would seem likely that ISW is far more successful in spreading discourses on the war than any Kremlin agency.
Indeed, Russia has no equivalent to ISW’s global influence and reach in the information domain. The Kremlin’s presentation of its war aims or ability to contest key points has been clearly weak in the West. Despite all the ISW claims, it appears that Russia has long given up on serious “perception manipulation” in the West in favor of hard power.
As a debacle looms for the Western alliance in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War is offering a Plan B of escalation to solve the current situation. With the anniversary of NATO this month, we can expect their arguments will be heard in various meetings across the Western world. One only hopes the counter-argument for restraint can be made without being shouted down as a Kremlin propaganda tactic.