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Global military spending tops $2 trillion for the first time

The US far outpaces all spenders when pressing threats like climate change and nuclear conflict that require diplomatic strategies receive little funding.

Reporting | Military Industrial Complex
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According to a new analysis from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, global military spending topped $2.1 trillion in 2021, the first time it has surpassed the $2 trillion mark. Over 38 percent of that total — $801 billion — was accounted for by the United States. Figures for 2022 will rise even higher on the strength of substantial spending increases in the United States and Europe in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and due to the misguided notion that China represents a “pacing threat” that calls for sharp increases in Pentagon outlays.

It’s hard to overstate just how much the United States and its allies dominate world military spending figures. As of 2021, the United States alone was spending over two and one-half times on its military than what China spent, and over 12 times what Russia spent. Just four U.S. NATO allies — the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy — together spend over three times what Russia spends on its military. And adding Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan’s spending to the U.S. total puts the United States and its closest regional allies together at well over three times what China spends.

But of course, throwing money at the Pentagon doesn’t necessarily make anyone safer. Much of the funding steered to the Department of Defense is wasted on a misguided strategy and dysfunctional or unnecessary weapons programs like the F-35 combat aircraft and the new intercontinental ballistic missile, now officially known as the Sentinel. And despite pledges to “put diplomacy first” in U.S. foreign policy, when it comes to budget allocations the Biden administration’s approach is clearly “put the Pentagon first.”

And the threats being cited to justify near record levels of spending for the Department of Defense are the same ones the Trump administration cited in its National Defense Strategy: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and what used to be called the “Global War on Terror.” Aside from the administration’s on-again, off-again effort to revive the Iran nuclear deal, the above-mentioned threats are too often addressed through military means and military preparations rather than by a comprehensive diplomatic strategy. Meanwhile, climate change, the greatest existential threat to the planet alongside the risk of a nuclear conflict, has taken a back seat in funding and policy development while military spending runs out of control.

Meanwhile, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine clearly calls for a response, but it’s not clear why it can or should jack up the Pentagon budget for years to come, especially given pledges by Germany and other U.S. European allies to do more in their own defense.

So, for what it’s worth, America is #1 in global military spending, but we need a thorough overhaul of our approaches to strategy and weapons procurement. Pouring more money into the same broken system is a recipe for failure.


Image: studiostoks via shutterstock.com
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Reporting | Military Industrial Complex
Why Tehran may have time on its side
Top image credit: Iranian army military personnel stand at attention under a banner featuring an image of an Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) during a military parade commemorating the anniversary of Army Day outside the Shrine of Iran's late leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the south of Tehran, Iran, on April 18, 2025. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto)

Why Tehran may have time on its side

QiOSK

A provocative calculus by Anusar Farrouqui (“policytensor”) has been circulating on X and in more exhaustive form on the author’s Substack. It purports to demonstrate a sobering reality: in a high-intensity U.S.-Iran conflict, the United States may be unable to suppress Iranian drone production quickly enough to prevent a strategically consequential period of regional devastation.

The argument is framed through a quantitative lens, carrying the seductive appeal of mathematical precision. It arranges variables—such as U.S. sortie rates and degradation efficiency against Iranian repair cycles and rebuild speeds—to suggest a "sustainable firing rate." The implication is that Iran could maintain a persistent strike capability long enough to exhaust American political patience, forcing Washington toward a premature declaration of success or an unfavorable ceasefire.

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Will Democrats pop Trump's $50 billion trial balloon for war?
Top image credit: Sens. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) sit look on during a congressional hearing in January, 2025. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Sipa USA)

Will Democrats pop Trump's $50 billion trial balloon for war?

Washington Politics

On Wednesday, Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) told CNN that he would support new funding for the U.S. war with Iran — but only if Israel and Arab Gulf states help pay for it.

“We’re using our taxpayer money to protect those countries,” Gallego said. “We’re using our men to protect these countries. They need to throw in and have skin in the game too.”

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Polymarket Iran War
Top photo credit: Polymarket logo (Shutterstock/PJ McDonald) and Scene following an airstrike on an Iranian police centre damaging residential buildings around it in Niloofar square in central Tehran on march 1, 2026. (Hamid Vakili/Parspix/ABACAPRESS.COM)

Prediction markets are a national security threat

Latest

Hours before an Israeli attack in Tehran killed Ayatollah Khamenei, an account on the prediction market Polymarket made over half a million dollars wagering that Iran’s Supreme Leader would vacate office before 3/31. That account, named “Magamyman,” was not the only one to cash in on the attacks.

Half a dozen Polymarket accounts made over $1.2M betting that the U.S. “strikes Iran by February 28, 2026.” Those accounts were allegedly paid for through cryptocurrency wallets that had previously not been funded prior to Feb. 27. Overall, prediction market users bet over $255M on markets related to the attacks in Iran on the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket alone.

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