Stunning news today as European Union foreign affairs chief Josep Borell announced a “pause” in the Iran nuclear talks in Vienna, citing “external factors.” Diplomats say this refers to the eleventh-hour demand by the Russians, one of the original JCPOA signatories, to relieve some of its sanctions over the Ukraine invasion in exchange for its support on a renewed deal.
Though the JCPOA has not been killed by these Russian demands, Moscow does have the ability to harm the United States by delaying the agreement at a crucial point of Washington’s vulnerability to high oil prices. It may also have the ability to pull the plug on the agreement as a whole by triggering snap-back sanctions in the UN Security Council or preventing the Joint Commission from adopting the decision to bring the US back into the deal. The snap-back option would of course create a very significant crisis between Tehran and Moscow.
In retrospect, the parties were clearly mistaken in thinking that Russia would continue to compartmentalize the JCPOA talks from its tensions with the West. The Ukraine crisis of 2014 did not undermine the JCPOA negotiations, but it is of course incomparable to the Ukraine crisis of 2022. It remains unclear, however, if the Russian objective is to delay the deal to undermine the West’s efforts to pressure Russia over Ukraine or to completely scuttle the deal.
Though Tehran has been tempered in its statements so far, it must clearly be angered by the Russian maneuvers. But Iran is stuck between two bad choices: Accepting the potential collapse of the deal and continued U.S. sanctions, or seeking a potential agreement with the U.S. outside of the JCPOA. The latter could dangerously increase tensions between Tehran and Moscow while making Iran dependent on the U.S. at a time when GOP officials have made it clear they will kill the JCPOA if they take the White House in 2024.
Hopefully, the deal can still be salvaged. But if it collapses on the goal line because of Russian sabotage, it further underscores the folly of Biden not going back to the deal via Executive Order on the first day of his presidency. No one could have predicted Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine as a factor, but many predicted that it would be unpredictably messy to negotiate a return.
Trita Parsi is the co-founder and Executive Vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
A police officer stands outside the hotel where a meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission, or Iran nuclear deal, is held in Vienna, Austria, April 27, 2021. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger|A police officer stands outside the hotel where a meeting of the JCPOA Joint Commission, or Iran nuclear deal, is held in Vienna, Austria, April 27, 2021. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend a welcoming ceremony at Baghdad International Airport in Baghdad, Iraq, on April 22, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Iraq Monday for the first time since 2011, marking a potential thaw in relations between the two neighboring countries, which have long clashed over Turkish attacks on Kurdish groups in Iraq’s north.
“For the first time, we find that there is a real desire on the part of each country to move toward solutions,” Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’ al-Sudani said during a recent event at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C.
Sudani noted that the trip comes after more than a year of talks focused on addressing the biggest issues in the bilateral relationship. “For the first time, sensitive discussions are being held on every issue that represented barriers to the relationship,” he said. “And we agreed on all of these topics after a series of meetings and bilateral trips.”
The trip is a crucial part of the Sudani government’s efforts to stabilize Iraq and move forward from years of internal strife and war — a campaign made more urgent in recent weeks by escalating tensions in the region, as Iran and Israel’s shadow war has come out into the open.
Erdogan’s visit comes as Sudani returns from a week-long trip to Washington, where the Iraqi leader pitched a “new chapter” in U.S.-Iraq relations that could include a withdrawal of American troops from the country, which have become targets for Iraqi militias since the Gaza war began last year. He also sought new economic agreements and encouraged U.S. businesses to invest in Iraq.
Back in Iraq, Sudani and Erdogan were set to discuss enhanced cooperation to counter Kurdish fighters from the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), which Turkey and the U.S. consider a terrorist group. Turkey has for years mounted cross-border attacks on the PKK that have drawn backlash from the Iraqi government, citing sovereignty concerns.
In a notable shift, the two countries now say they are cooperating to fight the group. This will not, however, include joint military operations, according to Iraq’s defense minister. Questions remain about whether Iraqi officials are prepared to join Erdogan in his pledge to “permanently” destroy the organization in an operation later this year.
On the economic side, Sudani hopes the visit will lead to new agreements on trade to augment Iraq’s $17 billion “Development Road” project, which aims to increase Iraq’s capacity to serve as a transit hub for goods traveling between Asia and Europe.
Another deal will likely address the two countries’ shared water resources. Turkey controls the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which provide most of Iraq’s freshwater, and Iraqi officials are hoping to persuade Turkish leaders to increase the amount of water that reaches their country.
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Flags flutter as pro-Ukrainian supporters demonstrate outside the U.S. Capitol after the U.S. House of Representatives voted on legislation providing $95 billion in security assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, at Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., April 20, 2024. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno
The House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed four separate national security supplemental bills on Saturday, clearing the way for the foreign aid package to arrive at President Joe Biden’s desk.
One bill contained roughly $60 billion in aid for Ukraine, while a second had approximately $26 billion for Israel, and another gave $8 billion for the Indo-Pacific. A final one included a series of other policy priorities like the sale of TikTok and the REPO act that would allow the U.S. to seize Russian assets. The bills will now be rolled into one and are expected to be voted on in the Senate early next week.
The Ukraine aid passed 311-112 with seven not voting and one member voting present. The Israel aid bill won 366-58 with seven not voting. The Indo-Pacific aid bill was advanced 385-34. The so-called “sidecar bill” that included the potential TikTok ban, passed 360-58.
The more controversial of course were the bills funding the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, with members of the Republican and Democratic parties, respectively, raising concerns about continuing to fund these efforts.
“‘As much as it takes, as long as it takes’ is not a mission statement, but a recipe for disaster,” said Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) on X shortly before the vote. “Bad news does not get better with time. This is a plan to expand the war.”
Johnson did not get the majority of his party to support the Ukraine aid bill. In the end, 101 Republicans voted in favor, while 112 were opposed. Democrats, whose 210 voting members supported the aid unanimously, treated the result as a major victory. One member passed out Ukrainian flags on the House floor ahead of the vote, and celebrated its passage.
“Ukraine aid passes!! Thank goodness. Hopefully this changes morale and results on the battlefield today Dark day for Putin,” said Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) on X.
“Democrats waiving Ukrainian flags on the House floor tells you everything you need to know about their priorities,” wrote Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.). “Ukraine first, America last.”
If the Senate, as expected, passes the package, it will mark the first tranche of aid to make its way through Congress since December 23, 2022.
There was some bipartisan opposition on the Israel aid, with Republicans voting in favor by a margin of 193-21; Democrats supported the bill 173-37.
“We have seen how Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government has used American weapons to kill indiscriminately, to force famine. Over 25,000 women and children dead. Tens of thousands of missiles and bombs levied on innocent civilians. We cannot escape what we see before us every day,” said Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) on the floor. “Are we going to participate in that carnage, or not? I choose not to.”
Nineteen progressives banded together in a letter to explain their vote to oppose the aid. They said Israel was violating U.S. laws that prevent the transfer of weapons to units that are violating human rights.
“This is a moment of great consequence—the world is watching," the lawmakers wrote. "Today is, in many ways, Congress' first official vote where we can weigh in on the direction of this war. If Congress votes to continue to supply offensive military aid, we make ourselves complicit in this tragedy."
Meanwhile, Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), one of the GOP opponents to the legislation, said in a statement that his support for Israel remained “unshakeable” but that the aid for Israel should have been accompanied by domestic spending cuts. The House earlier passed an Israel aid bill that included cuts to the IRS, but it stalled in the Senate.
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Palestinians inspect a house after an Israeli air strike in Rafah, Gaza, on April 17, 2024. (Anas Mohammed/ Shutterstock)
In light of Iran and Israel’s recent retaliatory strikes, media focus has now turned to concerns of potential regional escalation and the awaited aid package from the U.S. House of Representatives. Gaza and the war there appear to have moved off to sidebar status as a result.
It shouldn’t remain there for long. While the world’s gaze has been turned, the death toll of 50 to 100 Gazans a day since the Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria only underscores the ongoing severity of the situation. Since the April 1 attack, the Israeli onslaught on Gaza has bred: revelations that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) created “kill zones” in Gaza in which anyone can be shot; the deaths of seven international aid workers, who were killed in a targeted attack by the Israeli military; a mass grave found after the Israeli withdrawal from al-Shifa hospital that held at least fifteen bodies after the two week siege on the hospital; the deaths of at least 13 people after a strike targeted Al-Maghazi refugee camp in central Gaza; and news that all of Gaza City’s water wells had stopped functioning, according to Gaza’s Government Media Office.
In the U.S., grassroots efforts to halt arms sales to Israel have not ceased either. The uncommitted national campaign in the Democratic presidential primary has brought in nearly half a million dollars to finance the effort, which aims to push the Biden administration towards a ceasefire in Gaza. The movement started in Michigan’s democratic presidential primary, where more than 100,000 voters cast ballots for “uncommitted” — sending a signal to the president’s reelection campaign that he is out of step with his likely voters on the war in Gaza. Since then, other states — such as Minnesota, Washington and Wisconsin — picked up the idea and rapidly organized to turn out people who wanted to send Biden a message. On Tax Day this year, protests took place across the country to raise awareness about Israel’s war in Gaza.
In Israel, massive protests continue in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, reflecting a significant challenge to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's increasingly embattled leadership. Demonstrators are furious with the prime minister and his government for failing to secure the release of all hostages taken during the events of October 7. Despite the release of 105 individuals during a temporary truce last year, 130 hostages remain either deceased or in captivity with Hamas and other militant groups. Banners at the protests demand Netanyahu's resignation and call for new nationwide elections.
As of Friday, the House of Representatives was poised to advance the National Security Supplemental, including $16 billion in aid for Israel. In their negotiations with Republicans, Democratic leadership held the inclusion of Gaza aid in any package as a “red line.” Despite this, there is still a large segment of the Democratic party that does not support sending offensive weapons to Israel without assurances that its use will not violate any U.S. laws or international laws related to war. House Foreign Affairs Committee Ranking Member Gregory Meeks has so far declined to give his sign-off on a sale of F-15s to Israel.
Additionally, in the midst of the procedural hurdles in passing the foreign aid packages out of the House, eight Democrats introduced an amendment that would restrict U.S. weapons transfers to Israel until a "full investigation" is completed into their use in Gaza. The amendment was blocked by the Rules Committee. This was just one of many amendments from Democrats that were critical of Israel's actions that were not ultimately made in order by the committee. The final vote of the Israel military aid bill, along with the others in the package, is slated for Saturday morning.
Israel finds itself in a precarious position, also engaged in a separate conflict with Hezbollah on its northern border while pledging to respond to Iran's strikes last week. However, Israel is absolutely taking advantage of the world’s diverted attention. Recent discussions between the Biden administration and Israeli officials suggest some form of approval for a ground invasion in Rafah is still to come.
In the entirety of Gaza, from the dire famine in the north to the desperation of refugees now packed into the densely populated south, the upcoming days and weeks will be critical. It's essential to remember that at the root of both the Israeli and Iranian strikes lies the failure of Israel and Hamas to reach a ceasefire there. To this end, the world’s attention should not waver.