Follow us on social

google cta
09

Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iran reach gas trade deal

The agreement was presented by both Baku and Tehran as proof that their recent political crisis had been overcome. Has it?

Analysis | Europe
google cta
google cta

Azerbaijan and Iran have agreed to a deal to swap natural gas along with Turkmenistan, solidifying their economic rapprochement shortly after a serious political rupture between the two neighbors.

The presidents of Azerbaijan and Iran met on November 28 in Ashgabat, after which the agreement was signed.

“From now on, Iranian-Azerbaijani relations will develop in all areas,” Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev told reporters following the signing. “Our peoples are fraternal peoples, our countries are fraternal countries, and the issues discussed today show again that Iranian-Azerbaijani relations are at a very high level.”

It was a sharp turnaround from the saber-rattling of less than two months earlier, when Aliyev and other Azerbaijani officials were heaping abuse on Iran during a crisis set off by Azerbaijani police arresting two Iranian truck drivers. Tehran responded by holding unprecedented war games on the border with Azerbaijan and Baku hinted at stoking separatist sentiments among Iran’s large ethnic Azerbaijani minority.

But the two governments soon moved to patch things up, and in late November signed a potentially significant agreement on energy cooperation, though many of the details remained unclear.

One of the key elements of that agreement was clarified in the new gas swap deal. Under it, 1.5 to 2 billion cubic meters of gas will be transported annually; Turkmenistan will supply Iran with gas and then Iran will separately deliver an equivalent amount of gas to Azerbaijan.

Iran Petroleum Minister Javad Owji said that the talks on the new agreement began “about two months ago,” that is during the heat of the political crisis. The shipments will begin on December 22, he said.

“Our relations with the Republic of Azerbaijan are not only neighborly, they are the relations of our hearts. The hearts of the peoples of the two countries beat together,” Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi told reporters at the joint appearance with Aliyev. “We must never allow others to interfere in our relations. We must resolve our own problems, work together to advance our relations and deepen mutually beneficial cooperation. Experience so far shows that when we discuss our issues ourselves, we manage to resolve many of them.”

(Turkmenistan officials seemed to have been absent from the signing, despite their participation in the agreement. The official Turkmenistan government readout of President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov’s meeting with Aliyev did not mention the deal, nor did that of Berdymukhammedov’s meeting with Raisi.)

In a victory lap of sorts, Azerbaijan news website Haqqin said that the turnaround in relations was the result of Raisi – “one of the smartest representatives of Iran’s political elite” – overcoming resistance from pro-Armenian “hawks” in the government and others who were concerned that new transportation arrangements under discussion between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia would weaken Iran’s influence in the region.

And it presented Aliyev as a firm defender of Iran’s interests on the world stage.

“Even in the period of strengthened western pressure on Iran, Ilham Aliyev demonstratively and publicly in front of the whole world spoke of the need to develop economic relations and a good-neighbor policy with Tehran,” wrote the site’s editor in chief, Eynulla Fatullayev. “In spite of the calls by [former national security adviser John] Bolton and the messages from Trump,” he wrote.

This article has been republished with permission from Eurasianet.


Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi following the signing of a new gas swap deal. (photo: president.az)
google cta
Analysis | Europe
Why Tehran may have time on its side
Top image credit: Iranian army military personnel stand at attention under a banner featuring an image of an Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) during a military parade commemorating the anniversary of Army Day outside the Shrine of Iran's late leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the south of Tehran, Iran, on April 18, 2025. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto)

Why Tehran may have time on its side

QiOSK

A provocative calculus by Anusar Farrouqui (“policytensor”) has been circulating on X and in more exhaustive form on the author’s Substack. It purports to demonstrate a sobering reality: in a high-intensity U.S.-Iran conflict, the United States may be unable to suppress Iranian drone production quickly enough to prevent a strategically consequential period of regional devastation.

The argument is framed through a quantitative lens, carrying the seductive appeal of mathematical precision. It arranges variables—such as U.S. sortie rates and degradation efficiency against Iranian repair cycles and rebuild speeds—to suggest a "sustainable firing rate." The implication is that Iran could maintain a persistent strike capability long enough to exhaust American political patience, forcing Washington toward a premature declaration of success or an unfavorable ceasefire.

keep readingShow less
Will Democrats pop Trump's $50 billion trial balloon for war?
Top image credit: Sens. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) sit look on during a congressional hearing in January, 2025. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Sipa USA)

Will Democrats pop Trump's $50 billion trial balloon for war?

Washington Politics

On Wednesday, Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) told CNN that he would support new funding for the U.S. war with Iran — but only if Israel and Arab Gulf states help pay for it.

“We’re using our taxpayer money to protect those countries,” Gallego said. “We’re using our men to protect these countries. They need to throw in and have skin in the game too.”

keep readingShow less
Polymarket Iran War
Top photo credit: Polymarket logo (Shutterstock/PJ McDonald) and Scene following an airstrike on an Iranian police centre damaging residential buildings around it in Niloofar square in central Tehran on march 1, 2026. (Hamid Vakili/Parspix/ABACAPRESS.COM)

Prediction markets are a national security threat

Latest

Hours before an Israeli attack in Tehran killed Ayatollah Khamenei, an account on the prediction market Polymarket made over half a million dollars wagering that Iran’s Supreme Leader would vacate office before 3/31. That account, named “Magamyman,” was not the only one to cash in on the attacks.

Half a dozen Polymarket accounts made over $1.2M betting that the U.S. “strikes Iran by February 28, 2026.” Those accounts were allegedly paid for through cryptocurrency wallets that had previously not been funded prior to Feb. 27. Overall, prediction market users bet over $255M on markets related to the attacks in Iran on the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket alone.

keep readingShow less
google cta
Want more of our stories on Google?
Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.