Follow us on social

2021-03-30t110452z_703887476_rc2nlm939lfd_rtrmadp_3_yemen-security-oman-scaled

How the Houthis outwitted and out-fought everyone

The Saudi "Operation Decisive Storm" was anything but, and now the only way they can end this is through diplomacy.

Analysis | Middle East

Last month marked six years since a Saudi-led coalition launched a military intervention in Yemen, named “Operation Decisive Storm.” Yet the kingdom and its coalition partners have achieved nothing decisive in Yemen, beyond further strengthening the Houthis. 

The primary objective of the campaign, which was planned to last mere weeks, was to force the retreat of the Houthis from the Yemeni capital of Sana’a which they had seized in September 2014. Then — or so the plan was — Yemen’s internationally recognized government (IRG) would be restored to some semblance of power. Yet, rather than weakening the Houthis, the Saudi-intervention in Yemen has strengthened the Houthis politically and militarily. At the same time, the Houthis’ relationship with Iran, which was once minimal, has deepened.

As is most often the case with armed interventions, Operation Decisive Storm established dangerous feedback loops that only non-kinetic approaches to the war will disrupt. The UAE has recognized the need for new approaches and is recalibrating its policies in Yemen and the broader region. The UAE withdrew most of its armed forces from Yemen in 2019 and has reduced its overt involvement in Yemen, even though it still remains deeply involved in southern Yemen. 

Saudi Arabia should, like the UAE, take a more realistic approach to achieving its aims in Yemen. The kingdom possesses both the means and institutional knowledge to alter many of the feedback loops that its own intervention and past policies set in motion. Before its 2015 intervention, Saudi Arabia’s primary concerns in Yemen were border security and ensuring that a populous and relatively democratic Yemen posed no broader threat. For nearly fifty years, Saudi Arabia largely achieved these aims — often at the cost of Yemeni interests—by pursuing a subtle, contextualized, and inexpensive approach to dealing with Yemen. 

If Saudi Arabia wants to extricate itself from the Yemeni quagmire, it must replace military intervention with renewed and revised diplomatic and economic engagement with a spectrum of Yemeni stakeholders. By continuing its current armed intervention, Saudi Arabia risks ensuring that the problems that it faces in Yemen become ever-more intractable.

Chief among such problems is the Houthis’ development, with Iranian technical help, of a range of drones, rockets, and missiles. In response to Saudi Arabia’s continuing aerial attacks on Houthi controlled areas of Yemen, the Houthis have used primarily indigenously produced armed drones, rockets, and missiles to strike targets within Saudi Arabia. The Houthis have also proven themselves equally adept at carrying out cross-border attacks deep within Saudi territory — often using hand-launched surveillance drones to direct their fighters around obstacles and toward targets.

While Iran has played a role in the Houthis’ drone, rocket, and missile programs, the Houthis themselves have driven much of the innovation. When the Houthis took over most of northwest Yemen in 2014-15, they absorbed many of the Yemeni Army’s and Air Force’s most capable engineers and officers. These individuals, many of whom were educated and trained abroad, were accustomed to maintaining relatively complex weapons systems with limited spare parts and budgets. A spirit of improvisation and forced ingenuity infused the efforts led by those officers and NCOs charged with maintaining Yemen’s weapons systems.

The Saudi-led intervention supercharged the Houthis’ efforts to develop weapons capable of striking Saudi targets — even if only in a symbolic manner. In a striking example of what MIT Professor Eric von Hippel calls the “democratization of innovation,” the Houthis — and, by extension, their primary backer Iran — benefited from easy access to technical assistance via the internet, 3D printing, and easily obtainable advanced computer software. This, combined with a solid knowledge base, extant weapons systems, caches of parts, and components smuggled from Iran, allowed the Houthis to build up an array of weapons that amplify the asymmetric tactics they employ. At the same time, the individuals building and using the weapons continuously refine their designs by incorporating real-time feedback from failed and successful attacks.

The Houthis are militarily nimble. Like all guerrilla groups, they have had to be in order to survive. The Houthis fought six wars with the Yemeni Army from 2004-2010 and largely prevailed. Saudi Arabia’s military has neither adapted nor evolved in ways that allow it to combat the Houthis. The Houthis consistently show that they are able to get inside the Saudi military’s Boydian OODA (observe, orient, decide, act) loop. This is unlikely to change given the Houthis’ ability to leverage the fact that they are fighting on home ground. The inexpensive and increasingly sophisticated drones and rockets that the Houthis deploy further enhance their advantages as a lean, fast moving, and adaptable military organization.

Six years of war have shown that neither Saudi Arabia (with American support) nor the UAE and their proxies can militarily defeat the Houthis. Instead, armed intervention only drives the Houthis to further excel at what they are best at: fighting. The Biden administration seems to understand this and is carefully applying pressure on the kingdom to try different approaches to de-escalating the war in Yemen. The U.S. should help Saudi Arabia help itself. There are many within the Saudi government who have the experience, and, most importantly, the relationships with Yemeni elites that are required to help stabilize Yemen and end the cycles of violence.

If Saudi Arabia were to return to the kind of policy it once employed in Yemen, the kingdom could slowly regain some of the influence it once wielded. While former Saudi policies in Yemen were self-serving, they were superior to the current reliance on armed struggle. As major regional powers, Saudi Arabia and the UAE both have roles to play in any future Yemen. However, these roles depend on recognizing that the Houthis will also have a role, and an important one at that. An inability to recognize this and a failure to shift from war-making to peace-making will ensure that cycles of violence and deadly innovation on the part of the Houthis will continue with evermore grave consequences for Yemen and the region.

Houthi soldiers march during a funeral procession for Houthi fighters killed in recent fighting against government forces in Marib province, in Sanaa, Yemen February 17, 2021. REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah/File Photo
Analysis | Middle East
Where are the US ships on the Gaza aid mission now?
File:US Navy 030530-N-0000X-002 Sea trials of USNS Benavidez (T ...

Where are the US ships on the Gaza aid mission now?

QiOSK

The Army and Navy ships that have left the U.S. for a massive humanitarian aid project in Gaza are still making their way across the Atlantic, with two still at ports in Florida and Virginia. It will likely take until mid-April for the vessels to reach Gaza and begin building a temporary causeway to facilitate the entry of life-saving aid into the strip.

Looking at real-time satellite imagery tracking military vessels, it looks like the USAV Gen. Frank Besson Jr., an Army support vessel that left Fort Eustis, Virginia, on March 10, has been moored and presumably refueling at a port in the Azores, Portugal, since Friday. It is at the half-way point between the U.S. and its final destination of Cyprus (nearly 5,000 nautical miles total). At an average speed of 10 knots, its journey will take nearly two more weeks, depending on weather conditions, once it gets going again.

keep readingShow less
Pro-Israel org reels in big fish: A former CENTCOM commander

210505-N-KZ419-1186 NAVAL SUPPORT ACTIVITY BAHRAIN (May 5, 2021) Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander of U.S. Central Command, center, and Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, incoming commander U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), U.S. 5th Fleet and Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) listens to remarks during a change of command ceremony onboard Naval Support Activity Bahrain, May 5. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Dawson Roth)

Pro-Israel org reels in big fish: A former CENTCOM commander

Washington Politics

Despite serious concerns about possible Israeli war crimes and even “plausible” allegations of genocidal acts in its war in the Gaza Strip, the former chief of U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM, has accepted a fellowship from one of Washington’s most hawkish pro-Israel organizations.

The Jewish Institute for National Security of America, or JINSA, announced last week that Gen. Frank McKenzie, who led CENTCOM from 2019 to April 2022, would become the Hertog Distinguished Fellow at JINSA’s Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy.

keep readingShow less
State Dept: No evidence Israel violating laws with US weapons

Photo credit: Anas Mohammed/ Shutterstock

State Dept: No evidence Israel violating laws with US weapons

QiOSK

The State Department said on Monday that it has found no evidence that Israel is violating a recent directive that recipients of U.S. military aid comply with international human rights law.

In February, partly due to pressure over support for Israel’s war on Gaza, the Biden administration issued a national security memo that required any country receiving military aid from Washington while participating in an active armed conflict, to issue “credible and reliable written assurances” that they will use weapons funded by the U.S. in accordance with international law, and that they “the recipient country will facilitate and not arbitrarily deny, restrict, or otherwise impede, directly or indirectly, the transport or delivery of United States humanitarian assistance and United States Government-supported international efforts to provide humanitarian assistance.”

keep readingShow less

Israel-Gaza Crisis

Latest