Follow us on social

Shutterstock_1604805202-scaled

Blowback from Trump’s Hit on Soleimani Will be Swift and Severe

The outlines of the blowback are already taking shape as the Iraqi government, even some neutral and anti-Iran factions, have condemned the attack as, at the very least, an insult to the sovereignty of their country.

Analysis | Middle East

Ordering the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani is one of those decisions that makes a man like Donald J. Trump elated — but only for a short time. The come-down from that high will be long and painful.

As the smoke from that burning Toyota and flesh at the Bagdad International Airport blows back in the direction of Washington, it will start to dawn on Trump, as it did on Bush, how he has been duped into something that will not serve him well at all.

Back in the summer, when Iran shot down the RQ-4 Global Hawk flyer at its border in the Gulf of Oman, Trump's instincts served him well. The war hawks around him, like Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, then-National Security Advisor John Bolton and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), were pleading with him to hit Iran hard, a step they knew would increase the likelihood of an all-out war. He smelled the trap — perhaps Bolton's bushy mustache spooked him — and he backed off at the last minute.

It seemed in hindsight that the world had dodged a bullet. But unless you are Neo from the Matrix, there are only so many times one can dodge bullets when the supply of bullets seems to be endless. The Iranians contributing their fair share of them, in the form of routine incremental escalations. It was clear that for those who want war with Iran, they just needed patience and perseverance.

Eventually, the combination of Pompeo and Graham's show of absolute loyalty to Trump on one hand, and Trump’s diminished self-confidence courtesy of becoming the third president in history to be impeached, did their magic. On Friday night, after a late night visit by Graham and others, Trump finally took the bait.

For those neocons who for years have dreamt of the day America goes to war with Iran, it must have been an exciting night. Along with them, Isareli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Mujahedin-e Khalq, or MEK, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammed Bin Salman, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Muhammad Bin Zayed, and of course ISIS, are all having a very happy 2020 so far.

But like their elation on the evening George W Bush announced the commencement of war on Iraq early in 2003, the long-term blow-back will be slow and unforgiving. Supporting that war has already consumed the political careers of heavyweights like Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, and if not for last night, might have also consumed that of Joe Biden. For America, it has meant trillions of dollars and millions of units of American blood sunk into Iraqi sand.

At that time, Iran's establishment was fearful for a year or two that they would be next, then that fear soon turned to elation when it became clear that the Great Satan was not so great when it comes to long-term planning. With their foes the Taliban and Saddam crushed by the U.S., they soon found the road from Kabul to Beirut wide open for Iran's political, cultural, economic, and now direct military influence.

The outlines of the blowback from this most recent American adventure are already taking shape. The Iraqi government, even some neutral and anti-Iran factions, have condemned the attack as, at the very least, an insult to the sovereignty of their country, which is supposed to be America's ally. Iraqis — who has lived with hellish war on their soil for over 4 decades, and just got a breather after the defeat of ISIS — are once again pondering the prospect of their cities becoming the main battleground for a new war between Iran and the U.S. Within hours, anti-Iran Sunni and Shiite parties, as well as Grand Ayatollah Sistani, who has maintained a strong resistance to Iran's control of Iraq, have spoken out condemning Trump's hit.

One problem is the choice of target given to Trump. While Iran's influence is looked at with great suspicion in Iraq, Qassem Soleimani is widely seen as a military man who help defeat first Saddam and later al-Qaida and ISIS. The Iraqi defense minister who served during the time when ISIS was at its peak in 2014 said in a panel years later, on the role of Soleimani: "You don't understand. Daesh [as ISIS is known in the region] was 5 kilometers for my house in Baghdad. No one could stop them. They would have killed us all. If it were not for Soleimani and the Iranians who came to the front lines we'd all be dead and ISIS would have taken Iraq." This was at a time when Iraqi's American-trained and equipped army was fleeing ISIS's advance, leaving their weapons behind.

Even inside Iran, Iranians see Soleimani and internal Revolutionary Guards forces in a very different light. Many Iranians loathe the internal IRGC and their para-militaries, the Basij. Internally, these are seen as deeply involved in economic corruption, and for violently crushing open protest against that corruption. But when Iranians think of Qassem Soleimani, they see a stoic warrior who in his 20s fought and was wounded protecting them from Saddam Hussein's invasion of Iran in the 1980s, and in his 60s was still at it, protecting Iran from ISIS attacks by meeting the enemy inside Iraq and Syria. They credit him and his men with the fact that ISIS failed to mount the kind of widespread attacks inside Iran they have launched in Iraq and Syria. A recent U.S. university survey showed Soleimani is the most popular figure in Iran, polling higher that many internal leaders. Over the past days, I've heard from Iranians who are at the forefront of opposition to the regime who planned to turn out for Soleimani's funeral in Tehran. One told me, "If not for men like Soleimani, ISIS would have taken Iraq, then Syria, then Lebanon and Jordan, and Iran would not have been able to stop them."

For the regime in Iran, starting this Friday and the funeral procession on Saturday, this popular sentiment is a much needed break. Recall that just weeks ago, they carried out one of the bloodiest repressions of street protest in years. In addition, financial corruption has hollowed out their claims to religious legitimacy. The only tool they have left in their ideological grab bag is Iranian nationalism, and no one represented that better that General Soleimani. Like most countries, Iranians of all stripes rally to their flag when faced with an outside attack, especially if it is perceived as an injustice. When Saddam Hussein's Iraq invaded in 1980, anti-regime monarchists, leftists, and nationalists all volunteered to join the army or otherwise support the war effort. A new war with the USA, coming on the heels of the huge compromises Iran made (in their view) in the Iran nuclear deal, will provide a big "out" for the regime. They long for the 8 years of war with Saddam when all dissent was put on hold in the interest of national survival. An Iran at war with America is the Iran that suits them best. For decades, it's been an economic war, which, given the widespread corruption inside Iran, was hard to use to gin up nationalist sentiment, since the blame for the economic hardship was shared between both the regime and the U.S. A shooting war is a different story.

For the remnants of ISIS, whose dreams of a Wahhabi Caliphate with slave markets and head-chopping blocks in every Arab town were crushed in no small part by one Qassem Soleimani, there is elation. So too in the palaces of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Another likely joyful place is the home of Bibi Netanyahu, who has built his entire political career on conflict with Iran. When the risk of an Iran war goes up, Israelis are more likely to turn again to him and support his bid for immunity in his own corruption case.

For America's real strategic rivals, China and Russia, the strike on Soleimani was also great news. Both have used wars in the Middle East to push into the region aggressively. In Syria, war has allowed Russia to gain a permanent robust presence and complete control of the skies. Conflict and sanctions have mortgaged Iran's economy to China. Just last week, Iran, Russia, and China held joint naval exercises for the first time. There is nothing Iran won't give these two powers to help it survive a war with the U.S.

By agreeing to the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Trump has guaranteed that many more Arab, Iranian, and American lives will be lost in 2020. He's given heart to America's strategic enemies and dismayed America's wavering allies. Most of all, for Trump personally, he has gambled his presidency on the advice of people around him who couldn't care less for it. By November 2020, the longer term consequences of his decision last night will be clearer, and it most likely won't be pretty.


In the Iranian capital city of Tehran, mourning signs & symbols are being set-up on Jan 3, 2020, for General Qasem Soleimani who was assassinated by a US drone in Baghdad, Iraq.
Analysis | Middle East
Daniel Noboa, Xi Jinping
Top photo credit: Beijing, China.- In the photos, Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) and his Ecuadorian counterpart, Daniel Noboa (left), during a meeting in the Great Hall of the People, the venue for the main protocol events of the Chinese government on June 26, 2025 (Isaac Castillo/Pool / Latin America News Agency via Reuters Connect)

Why Ecuador went straight to China for relief

Latin America

Marco Rubio is visiting Mexico and Ecuador this week, his third visit as Secretary of State to Latin America.

While his sojourn in Mexico is likely to grab the most headlines given all the attention the Trump administration has devoted to immigration and Mexican drug cartels, the one to Ecuador is primarily designed to “counter malign extra continental actors,” according to a State Department press release.The reference appears to be China, an increasingly important trading and investment partner for Ecuador.

keep readingShow less
US Capitol
Top image credit: Lucky-photographer via shutterstock.com

Why does peace cost a trillion dollars?

Washington Politics

As Congress returns from its summer recess, Washington’s attention is turning towards a possible government shutdown.

While much of the focus will be on a showdown between Senate Democrats and Donald Trump, a subplot is brewing as the House and Senate, led by Republicans but supported by far too many Democrats, fight over how big the Pentagon’s budget should be. The House voted to give Trump his requested trillion dollar budget, while the Senate is demanding $22 billion more.

keep readingShow less
Yemen Ahmed al-Rahawi
Top image credit: Funeral in Sana a for senior Houthi officials killed in Israeli strikes Honor guard hold up a portraits of Houthi government s the Prime Minister Ahmed al-Rahawi and other officials killed in Israeli airstrikes on Thursday, during a funeral ceremony at the Shaab Mosque in Sanaa, Yemen, 01 September 2025. IMAGO/ via REUTERS

Israel playing with fire in Yemen

Middle East

“The war has entered a new phase,” declared Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a senior official in Yemen’s Ansar Allah movement, after Israeli jets streaked across the Arabian Peninsula to kill the group’s prime minister and a swathe of his cabinet in Yemen’s capital, Sana’a.

The senior official from Ansar Allah, the movement commonly known as the Houthis, was not wrong. The strike, which Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz promised was “just the beginning,” signaled a fundamental shift in the cartography of a two-year war of attrition between the region’s most technologically advanced military and its most resilient guerrilla force.

The retaliation was swift, if militarily ineffective: missiles launched towards Israel disintegrated over Saudi Arabia. Internally, a paranoid crackdown ensued on perceived spies. Houthi security forces stormed the offices of the World Food Programme and UNICEF, detaining at least 11 U.N. personnel in a sweep immediately condemned by the U.N. Secretary General.

The catalyst for this confrontation was the war in Gaza, unleashed by Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel, which provided the Houthis with the ideological fuel and political opportunity to transform themselves. Seizing the mantle of Palestinian solidarity — a cause their leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, frames as a “sacrifice in the cause of God Almighty ” — they graduated from a menacing regional actor into a global disruptor, launching missiles toward Israel just weeks after Hamas’s attacks and holding one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes hostage.

The chessboard was dangerously rearranged in May, when the Trump administration, eager for an off-ramp from a costly and ineffective air campaign, brokered a surprise truce with the Houthis. Mediated by Oman, the deal was simple: the U.S. would stop bombing Houthi targets, and the Houthis would stop attacking American ships. President Trump, in his characteristic style, claimed the Houthis had “capitulated” while also praising their “bravery.”

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.