Diplomacy Watch: Will Russia be invited to next peace summit?

While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to work in public to strengthen his country’s military arsenal and urge Washington and the West to lift more restrictions on how its weapons are used , Kyiv is also signaling a potential openness to negotiations with Moscow in the future.

At this week’s NATO summit in Washington, U.S. President Joe Biden and his Ukrainian counterpart made their case that Ukraine can still win its war with Russia.

“Make no mistake, Russia is failing in this war,” Biden said during a speech on Tuesday evening. “When this senseless war began, Ukraine was a free country. Today, it is still a free country, and the war will end with Ukraine remaining a free and independent country. Russia will not prevail. Ukraine will prevail.”

Zelensky, meanwhile, pushed the U.S. to enhance its provision of weaponry so that Ukraine can achieve victory.

“Imagine how much we can achieve when all limitations are lifted. Similarly now we can protect our cities from Russian glide bombs if American leadership makes a step forward and allows us to destroy Russian military aircraft on their bases,” he said in remarks at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute. “How much longer can Putin last? The answer to this question is right here in Washington – your leadership, your actions, your choice – the choice to act now.”

Ukraine got some of what it asked for at the summit, with NATO allies agreeing to send five new air defense systems, its first American-made F-16 fighter jets, and a long-term pledge of more than $43 billion in aid over the next year.

At the same time, however, Bloomberg reported on Thursday that Ukraine is hoping to organize its next summit before November’s presidential election in the United States — and that Russia could be included in the meetings.

“The push to organize the meeting before the US elections points to a sense of urgency on the part of Ukraine as it faces the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House,” according to the Bloomberg report.

Ukraine has organized a series of “peace summits” since June 2023, including the largest one last month in Switzerland. To date, the meetings have been geared toward strengthening support for Zelensky’s “peace formula,” and Russian representatives have not been invited to any of them.

Kyiv has previously signaled a willingness to include Russia in future talks. Perhaps the absence of many nations — most importantly China — from the last summit, due to Moscow’s exclusion, pressured Kyiv to move more quickly.

There is still a long way to go before Russia is actually invited to a future summit, or before talks between the two sides begin in earnest. Unnamed U.S. officials told Bloomberg that they were “unconvinced” that such a meeting would take place, and Russia’s deputy foreign minister said on Thursday that Russia would not attend, calling Ukraine’s preconditions an “ultimatum.”

The news could nonetheless be a positive development. As U.S. diplomat and former ambassador to Russia Thomas Pickering wrote in Foreign Affairs last year, this kind of discussion before official talks is normal for such a difficult negotiation.

“Like battle plans, peace plans may not survive first contact with the enemy, but the groundwork laid in advance of negotiations will still inform decision-making and improve the odds of a favorable outcome,” he wrote. “Prior preparations do not require the parties to fully agree on issues of substance. They don’t even require the parties to agree among themselves; that is what this phase of peacemaking is for. Early resolution, or even just understanding, of differences among key players (...) is vital for diplomatic readiness.”

In other diplomatic news related to the war in Ukraine:

— The final communiqué of this week’s NATO summit included the alliance’s harshest condemnation of China’s role in the war, calling Beijing a “decisive enabler” of Moscow’s war effort. “The PRC cannot enable the largest war in Europe in recent history without this negatively impacting its interests and reputation,” read the declaration.

—The communiqué also announced that Ukraine was on an “irreversible” path to join the alliance. “We will continue to support it on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership,” says the statement. “We reaffirm that we will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met.”

It has been NATO’s position that Kyiv will eventually join the alliance since 2008, and the latest statement did not provide any firm commitments on when or how that will happen. As Foreign Policy’s Robbie Gramer put it on Twitter, “Shorter NATO summit document: We agree that Ukraine will be ready to join NATO once we all agree that Ukraine will be ready to join NATO.”

— During the summit, the U.S. and Germany also announced that Washington will deploy intermediate-range missiles in Europe starting in 2026, in preparation for the “enduring stationing of these capabilities in the future,” according to a joint statement issued by the two countries. Russia’s deputy foreign minister called the decision “destructive to regional safety and strategic stability” and vowed a “military response” from Moscow.

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan described the Russian response as “saber rattling,” adding, “What we are deploying to Germany is a defensive capability like many other defensive capabilities we have deployed across the alliance, across the decades.”

— U.S. officials believe that Russia is not likely to take over much more Ukrainian territory, according toThe New York Times.

“Russia’s problems represent a significant change in the dynamic of the war, which had favored Moscow in recent months,” according to the Times. “Russian forces continue to inflict pain, but their incremental advances have been slowed by the Ukrainians’ hardened lines.”

Eric Ciaramella, a former intelligence official who now works at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Times that it has become clear over the last 18 months that neither side “possesses the capabilities to significantly change the battle lines.”

— Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Putin in Moscow this week. India has been floated as a possible mediator in the war, and Modi’s rhetoric during the meeting suggests that he may be open to playing that role. “Bombs and rockets do not secure peace,” Modi said according to Russian media, adding, “therefore we need to give accent to dialogue, and dialogue is necessary.”

U.S. State Department news:

During a Tuesday press briefing, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller was asked about the meeting between Modi and Putin, and said that Washington had “concerns” about the relationship between the two countries.

“We continue to urge India to support efforts to realize an enduring and just peace in Ukraine based on the principles of the UN Charter, based on upholding Ukraine’s territorial integrity and its sovereignty,” Miller added. “And that will continue to be what we will engage with (...) India about.”