Follow us on social

US military draft sign-ups plunge in 2 years

US military draft sign-ups plunge in 2 years

As conflicts rage overseas, previously undisclosed data shows a brewing crisis in the Selective Service

Analysis | Military Industrial Complex

Of men in the U.S. who turned 18 in 2023, fewer than 40% signed up for the draft — down from more than 60% in 2020 before the start of the war in Ukraine.

This eye-popping and previously undisclosed admission, as well as other revelations equally damning to plans to increase readiness to activate a draft, was included in documents released recently by the Selective Service System (SSS) in response to a Freedom Of Information Act request.

The SSS is maintains a database of eligible male citizens who could be conscripted if and when Congress and the president institute a draft. Per the law, American males must register within 30 days of their 18th birthday or find it difficult to get a drivers license in some states.

Public statements from supporters of draft registration have justified preparation for a draft as necessary for national emergencies, self-defense, or supposed existential threats such as a Chinese invasion of the mainland U.S. But the lead bullet point in the newly-disclosed Selective Service talking points to Congress in support of a proposal to automatically register all young Americans for a future draft, is the possible activation of a draft for foreign wars in Ukraine and/or the Middle East.

“SSS is experiencing a significant decline in registrations by 18-year-old men. In 2020, the registration rate for 18-year-old men nationwide was 61.8%, today it is just 39.9%,” the agency reports.

Most men register eventually, but often years after their prime draft eligibility. The SSS allows men to register without penalty until their 26th birthday. Some men deliberately or inadvertently delay registering until they are close to age 26. This minimizes their exposure to a possible draft while preserving their eligibility for federal or state jobs or other programs later in life.

Furthermore, the SSS has withheld its cursory one-page cost estimate for automated registration. But the one-page letter it provided to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) makes clear how little consideration it has given to the real-world feasibility or cost of automating draft registration. It includes no funding for database integration or for collection or verification of information not available from existing databases, including current physical addresses for provable delivery.

Congress and OMB need to scrutinize the proposals for automation and/or expansion of Selective Service registration, which have been through no hearings or budget review, much more closely. At a minimum, Congress should remove these provisions from the NDAA for Fiscal Year 2025, and schedule full hearings next year specifically on Selective Service, with witnesses for and against continuation, expansion, automation, or repeal of draft registration.

While Selective Service registration is being discussed behind closed doors in negotiations on the NDAA, the issue has been raised publicly in the Presidential campaign. In a speech in September, former President Trump criticized Vice-President Harris for allegedly supporting a military draft.

Mainstream media has fact-checked this as false, but has failed to note that, while Harris hasn't directly called for a draft, 1) Democrats and Republicans have both supported planning and preparation for a draft, as part of their bipartisan national security consensus, and 2) Trump did nothing as President to end draft registration, which he could have done by executive order if he were really opposed to a draft.

Selective Service registration requires authorizing legislation (the Military Selective Service Act) and funding from Congress as well an order from the President. The order currently in effect was issued by Jimmy Carter in 1980, and could have been rescinded or revised by any subsequent President. If either Presidential candidate wants to show that they don't support a draft today, they could endorse Selective Service repeal legislation and/or promise to issue an order, if elected, ending draft registration.

In the meantime, more and more young people will take the decision of which wars to fight into their own hands by opting out of Selective Service registration, either by not registering or by not telling the SSS when they move.


(US Army/US Department of Defense)

Analysis | Military Industrial Complex
Kim Jong Un
Top photo credit: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the construction site of the Ragwon County Offshore Farm, North Korea July 13, 2025. KCNA via REUTERS

Kim Jong Un is nuking up and playing hard to get

Asia-Pacific

President Donald Trump’s second term has so far been a series of “shock and awe” campaigns both at home and abroad. But so far has left North Korea untouched even as it arms for the future.

The president dramatically broke with precedent during his first term, holding two summits as well as a brief meeting at the Demilitarized Zone with the North’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. Unfortunately, engagement crashed and burned in Hanoi. The DPRK then pulled back, essentially severing contact with both the U.S. and South Korea.

keep readingShow less
Why new CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper is as wrong as the old one
Top photo credit: U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Brad Cooper speaks to guests at the IISS Manama Dialogue in Manama, Bahrain, November 17, 2023. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed

Why new CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper is as wrong as the old one

Middle East

If accounts of President Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iranian nuclear facilities this past month are to be believed, the president’s initial impulse to stay out of the Israel-Iran conflict failed to survive the prodding of hawkish advisers, chiefly U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Michael Kurilla.

With Kurilla, an Iran hawk and staunch ally of both the Israeli government and erstwhile national security adviser Mike Waltz, set to leave office this summer, advocates of a more restrained foreign policy may understandably feel like they are out of the woods.

keep readingShow less
Putin Trump
Top photo credit: Vladimir Putin (Office of the President of the Russian Federation) and Donald Trump (US Southern Command photo)

How Trump's 50-day deadline threat against Putin will backfire

Europe

In the first six months of his second term, President Donald Trump has demonstrated his love for three things: deals, tariffs, and ultimatums.

He got to combine these passions during his Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday. Only moments after the two leaders announced a new plan to get military aid to Ukraine, Trump issued an ominous 50-day deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire. “We're going to be doing secondary tariffs if we don't have a deal within 50 days,” Trump told the assembled reporters.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.