The U.S. intelligence community has found Israel’s claims that employees of a U.N. aid agency took part in Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack to be plausible, but it cannot conclude more definitively because it has not been able to independently verify the charges, according to new reporting from the Wall Street Journal.
The Israeli government charged last month that 12 staffers at the United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA) — which facilitates humanitarian aid to Palestinains throughout the region — either participated or assisted in the Hamas-led atrocities and that others have close ties to the terror group.
UNRWA fired the 12 employees and donor counties, including the United States, have since paused funding, moves that have increasingly become more controversial as the Israeli government has yet to provide clear evidence for its claims. The agency says it will soon run out of money amid the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
According to the Journal, the U.S.’s National Intelligence Council assessed with “low confidence” that a small group of UNRWA staffers participated in the attack. The intel assessment, the Journal reports, “doesn’t dispute Israel’s allegations of links between some staff at Unrwa and militant groups” and that, according to U.S. officials, “Israel hadn’t shared the raw intelligence behind its assessments with the U.S., limiting their ability to reach clearer conclusions.”
"This assessment casts further significant doubt on the veracity of Israel's claims against UNRWA, which remain allegations without confirmed substantiating evidence,” Chris Gunness, a former UNRWA spokesman and now Director of the Myanmar Accountability Project, told RS. "If Israel has allegations against UNRWA, it should hand them over to the internal and external investigations currently underway: one by the U.N.'s Office of Internal Oversight and the other headed by a former French minister. Only when the information has been authoritatively assessed should anyone draw conclusions.”
For years, factions on the right in Israel, along with their supporters in the United States, have been working to close down UNRWA with the apparent belief that the U.N. agency lends credibility to Palestinians' assertions of ownership over land Palestinians argue was taken by Israel. UNRWA also regularly submits a roster containing the names of its staff to the Israeli government, which in turn signs off.
“Those donors who based their decisions to defund UNRWA on unconfirmed information should restore funding and only take a decision when they have a proper understanding of what took place,” Gunness added.
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Israeli soldiers operate next to the UNRWA headquarters, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in the Gaza Strip, February 8, 2024. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez
top photo credit: Men hold a Syrian opposition flag on the top of a vehicle as people celebrate after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria December 8, 2024. REUTERS/Firas Makdesi
Embattled Syrian President Bashar al Assad, who had survived attempts to overthrow his government throughout a civil war that began in 2011, has reportedly been forced out and slipped away on a plane to parts unknown (later reports have said he is in Moscow).
Washington says it raced (in the words of the Washington Post) to help secure the country by engaging in airstrikes against ISIS weapons stockpiles and operatives Sunday night, and that it "strongly supports" a "peaceful transition" via an "inclusive Syrian-led process." According to Secretary of State Antony Blinken:
"After 14 years of conflict, the Syrian people finally have reason for hope. The Assad regime’s refusal since 2011 to engage in a credible political process and its reliance on the brutal support of Russia and Iran led inevitably to its own collapse," he said Sunday, adding that the U.S. will support international actions to hold Assad's regime accountable for its abuses and atrocities against its own people.
As for the rebels who have overthrown the government, "We have taken note of statements made by rebel leaders in recent days, but as they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions."
Enter Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) who had led the shocking and successful attack on Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and other strategic towns and cities in the northwestern region of the country this week. HTS is a Sunni Islamist group once linked to al-Qaida and the Al-Nusra Front and is still considered a terrorist group by the U.S. government (there is still a U.S. bounty on him), though for days, the mainstream media has been reporting that the group has rebranded itself as more moderate.
Photos Sunday morning showed cheering amid Sunni populations that had been opposed to Assad's rule and the victims of his brutal crackdowns over the decade, though the fighting had remained in a largely frozen state over the last few years until this week's uprising.
According to Al Jazeera, "opposition fighters" released their own statement on TV Sunday:
“The city of Damascus has been liberated. The tyrant Bashar al-Assad has been toppled. All the prisoners have been released from the prison of Damascus,” a leader of the group said.
“We wish all our fighters and citizens preserve and maintain the property of the state of Syria. Long live Syria,” he added.
It is not clear, however, how the news is being taken by the Alawite and Christian populations, Assad's support base, in Damascus, and how the new dynamics will affect the Kurdish advances (supported by the U.S.) in the northeast, the Turkish moves against both Assad and the Kurds, and Israel's interests in maintaining its control over the disputed Golan Heights (though there have been reports of Tel Aviv bombing Assad military assets in Damascus this morning and taking over the Golan Heights UN buffer zone ). Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly called the overthrow of Assad an "historic day."
Russia, too, has been involved in the war all along, and was providing airstrikes on behalf of Assad in recent days.
Egyptian officials out of the gate seemed to warn of factionalism and historically have no love lost for Islamist uprisings. In a statement they urged “comprehensive political process” to establish peace and support for Syria’s “sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity."
Turkey for its part, according to Al Jazeera, has said it is ready to help “guarantee security” in Syria, whatever that may mean. Iran, which has been a military supporter of Assad's regime, is urging against interference in Syria’s internal affairs. “Achieving this requires ending military conflicts as soon as possible, preventing terrorist acts, and starting national talks with the participation of all segments of Syrian society to form an inclusive government that represents all Syrian people,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.
Weighing in later Sunday, President Biden hailed the demise Assad. “It’s a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country,” Biden said from the Roosevelt Room Sunday. “It’s also a moment of risk and uncertainty. As we all turn to the question of what comes next, the United States will work with our partners and the stakeholders in Syria to help them seize an opportunity to manage the risk.”
As of Sunday night, according to U.S. Central Command, the U.S. has engaged in no less than 75 airstrikes against ISIS targets to secure the northeastern part of the country. The U.S. military used using Air Force assets including B-52 bombers, F-15 fighter jets and A-10 aircraft, according officials.
“There should be no doubt — we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria. All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way,” Gen. Erik Kurilla, commander of CENTCOM, said in a statement. The U.S. currently has 900 troops in the country.
Meanwhile, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance posted on X a warning about celebrating when there are Christian minorities in Damascus at risk. "As President Trump said, this is not our fight and we should stay out of it."
(Ret.) Col Doug Macgregor warns that with all of the external interests, the fate of Syria is likely factionalism, if not a partitioning. "In the near term, Israel and Turkey divide Syria to their liking, while Moscow and Tehran prepare for talks in Doha and Tehran prepares for all out war with Israel and the United States," he tells RS. "In the long-run, the volatile mix of Kurds, Turks, Israelis and Islamist Arabs will make the partition of Syria tenuous."
For his part, Trump said on Truth Social Russia had "no reason to be there in the first place" turned the situation into another call for negotiations in Ukraine.
"They (Russians) lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where close to 600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and could go on forever. Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success. Likewise, Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness. They have ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers, and many more civilians. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin."
UK's Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the UK welcomes the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s “barbaric regime” and called for the restoration of “peace and stability.”
This story is developing and we will be updating throughout the day.
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Russia's President Vladimir Putin speaks during a session of the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi, Russia October 19, 2017. REUTERS/Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool
On December 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the budget law for 2025-2027. The Duma had earlier approved the law on November 21, and the Federation Council rubber stamped it on November 27.
The main takeaway from the budget is that Russia is planning for the long haul in its war with NATO-backed Ukraine and makes clear that Russia intends to double down on defense spending no matter what the cost. While the increased budget does not shed light on expectations for a speedy resolution to the war, it is indicative that Moscow continues to prepare for conflict with both Ukraine and NATO.
More importantly, the recently signed budget only reinforces Russia’s move towards a war economy at the risk of exacerbating growing problems in the domestic economy related to labor shortages and inflation.
According to Russia’s Ministry of Finance (MinFin), the largest portion of budget expenditures will be dedicated to national defense. According to published figures, 32.4 percent ($126 billion) will be specifically allocated to defense. In comparison, the figure for 2024 was 29.4 percent of the budget or $98 billion. In 2026 and 2027 the expected budget increases are estimated at $69.5 billion and $125.1billion, respectively.
The figures suggest that military expenditures are crowding out spending in other areas of the economy. Planned spending on "national defense" is more than twice that allocated to social spending. Defense expenditures are followed by social policy (15.7 percent), national economy (10.5 percent) and national security and law enforcement activities (8.3 percent).
In addition, the new budget threatens to exacerbate existing pressures within the domestic labor market. According to Reuters, heavy recruitment by the armed forces and defense industries has drawn workers away from civilian enterprises, as has emigration, pushing unemployment to a record low of 2.3 percent.” Figures from Rosstat indicate that unemployment is at the lowest level since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Furthermore, last week Anton Kotyakov, the minister for labor and social defense, appeared before the State Duma where he announced that labor market demand by 2030 could face a deficit of 2.4 million people. The shortage is expected to be most critical in manufacturing, logistics and IT. The Labor Ministry is fearful that as Russia's labor woes intensify it may contribute to slowing economic growth.
Overall, Russia’s GDP growth, which is approximately 3.9 percent for 2024 according to the Russian ministry of economic development (MinEcon), will slow to about 2.5 percent in 2025 and level off at 2.8 percent by 2027. This contrasts with the International Monetary Fund’s estimate of 1.3 percent growth for 2025.
As a result of the new budget, MinFin forecasts an increase in state debt of nearly 50 percent in ruble terms through 2027. That would translate to 15 percent in 2023 of GDP to 18 percent in 2027. This runs counter to previous Russian economic policy that emphasized budget surpluses to counter Russia’s persistent inflation.
Inflation in Russia is currently running at about 8.7 percent. The MinEcon forecasts a decline to 7.3 percent by the end of the year. .
One result of the rise in inflation will be a 7.3 increase in pensions at the beginning of 2025. This will be higher than the expected figure. Pensioners make up a significant portion of Russia’s populace and can be a source of protest and public discontent. According to Sergei Chirkov, head of Russia’s Social Fund, more than 42 million people, or nearly 25 percent, will receive a pension in 2025.
It must be noted that Putin approved the increase in military expenditures as the United States announced that it is preparing a new $725 million military aid package for Ukraine. The assistance includes counter-drone systems, munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and antipersonnel land mines. Previously, President Biden committed to expending all allocated Congressional funds for Ukraine's military support before leaving office on January 20. His latest package brings the total U.S. aid to roughly $7.1 billion in Pentagon stockpiles since the start of 2023.
Thus, both sides continue to see doubling down as the only option both militarily and fiscally. Until this cycle of escalation is broken, the risk of direct conflict, possibly even nuclear exchanges, appears ever more likely. Indeed, the absence of restraint from either side appears to be the course of action at least until the change of U.S. administrations.
For Russia, expanded military expenditures are a worrying development for the long-term health of a Russian economy that continues to expend greater amounts of financial resources on its war versus NATO-backed Ukraine. According to the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), “for the first time on Putin’s watch, pure military expenditure is expected to rise above social spending, including social policy, education, and healthcare.” Moreover, CEPA notes “increases in overall tax rates contribute a larger share, not least because the extra revenue (including from a higher corporate tax rate) will be diverted into the federal budget and not given to the regions.”
Minister of finance Siluanov noted last week that overall regional budgets will shift from a surplus of one trillion rubles to a deficit of approximately 100 billion rubles in 2024. Declining finances in the regions are primarily attributable to declining exports and export revenues. He cites lower coal exports in the Kemerovo region as one example. This development is important as inhabitants of Russia’s regions are doing most of the fighting.
Combined with Russia’s labor shortages, fears of consumer inflation, and budget pressures on non-defense items, like pensions, education and social services, it is doubtful that the Kremlin can continue on this course indefinitely without risking popular opposition.
Likewise, the Trump campaign’s promises to reduce government spending and increase the real income of most American workers are likely to affect its support for Ukraine. While Trump will almost surely increase defense spending, it will probably not be directed to Ukraine if one believes his campaign rhetoric.
Russia’s leadership must understand this and, therefore, the condition of the Russian economy must be part of the formula for when and under what conditions Russia agrees to negotiations. Perhaps the newly signed Russian defense budget is a signal to the new Trump administration that Moscow is willing to up transaction costs of the war until it reaches a point where restraint and negotiation becomes possible if not necessary.
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Top Image Credit: Senate Committee Hearing: The Imperative to Strengthen America's Defense Industrial Base and Workforce (YouTube/Screenshot)
Military industry mainstays and lawmakers alike are warning of imminent conflict with China in an effort to push support for controversial deep tech, especially controversial autonomous and AI-backed systems.
The conversation, which presupposed a war with Beijing sometime in the near future, took place Wednesday on Capitol Hill at a hearing of the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) entitled, “The Imperative to Strengthen America's Defense Industrial Base and Workforce.”
“Planning, preparing, and then doing what is necessary as if we will be at war with China in the next three years is probably the best way to ensure that we will not be at war with China during this time,” said speaker Dr. William Greenwalt, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI).
Similarly sounding the alarm, Anduril Industries Chief Strategy Officer Chris Brose suggested the U.S. would run out of weapons in under a week of war with China.
Positing that inaction may invite aggression from China, committee witnesses proclaimed that America cannot counter increasingly innovative adversaries without a radical transformation of its defense industrial base.
And in such a transformation, witnesses proclaimed that deep-tech innovations including AI, autonomy, software and adjacent tech are vital to both the development of state-of-the-art weaponry but also towards the “hyper-scaling” of production processes key towards developing competitive arsenals.
“Deterrence depends on an industrial base that can produceorders of magnitude more weapons and military platforms,” Brose said. “This is not possible on a relevant timeline with our traditional defense systems and their equally traditional means of production, but it is eminently achievable with new classes of autonomous vehicles and weapons.”
Ultimately, AI tech tools were lauded for their perceived centrality in Washington’s ability to compete amid a fraught geopolitical climate. Going unmentioned were growing ethics concerns, where, for example, AI-powered weapons and targeting systems have sparked controversy for their use in Gaza, often against civilians and for high rate of errors.
Critically, conflicts of interest also abound. Brose’s Anduril Industries has springboarded off venture capital funding from the likes of billionaire Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund into the forefront of the weapons industry. The organization has quickly forged close government ties, as showcased by Anduril co-founder Trae Stephens’ recent consideration by President-elect Trump for the deputy secretary of defense position, the second highest civilian post at the Pentagon
While Greenwalt’s AEI does not publicly disclose donor information, an AEI speaker likewise revealed in a 2023 talk that the organization receives funding from Pentagon Contractors like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman.
And passing through the Pentagon-private sector “revolving door,” witness Halimah Najieb-Locke, vice president of policy and strategy for AI and computing company Entanglement, Inc., worked for the DoD as assistant secretary of defense for industrial base resilience until May of this year.
Meanwhile Najieb-Locke’s Entanglement, which focuses on AI, quantum computing, and algorithms, appears positioned to benefit from lawmakers’ positive response to the technology-forward hearing.
Indeed, lawmakers present were on the same page. “We need a healthy defense industrial base now to deter aggression and make sure the world’s dictators think again before dragging the U.S. and the world into yet another disastrous conflict,” Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Il.) said.
The hearing’s witnesses may well believe their efforts bolster America’s competitiveness and national security in increasingly tenuous times. And yet, their affiliations suggest their efforts also line their pockets, all while advancing contentious AI-backed and autonomous military production and weapons systems.
Altogether, the witnesses’ drive for ground-up defense industrial base transformation, especially when posed in tandem with what’s depicted as imminent war with China, steers congressional discourse towards a tech-forward war-footing.
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