Follow us on social

google cta
Trump Zelensky Putin

Diplomacy Watch: Trump wants swap of Ukraine's minerals for aid

But how much of these natural resources are already in Russian hands?

QiOSK
google cta
google cta

President Donald Trump on Monday suggested that future U.S. military aid to Ukraine could be given in exchange for valuable natural resources, echoing an idea that Ukrainian President Vlodomyr Zelenskyy originally proposed in October.

“We’re putting in hundreds of billions of dollars. They have great rare earth,” Trump said. It isn’t clear which rare earth metals Trump is referring to, but Ukraine’s mineral deposits include lithium, uranium, and titanium, and are worth an estimated several trillion dollars. In addition, Trump did not clarify how much of that value he wants to extract, merely saying that he wants “equalization” from Ukraine for past U.S. military aid dating back to the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. This would amount to roughly $66 billion.

On Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine welcomes “investment” from its defense partners, but did not specifically mention Trump.

Following an European Union meeting in Brussels, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz claimed that Trump’s proposal was “self-centered” and said that Ukraine’s mineral wealth should instead be spent on reconstruction efforts when the war ends.

Even if Zelenskyy does eventually address or even support Trump’s plan, many of Ukraine’s mineral deposits are now in Russian hands.

Since August 2024, Russia’s military strategy has shifted to target mineral rich Ukrainian land areas. As Ian Proud reported for Responsible Statecraft, Russian forces have made significant progress in capturing coal, uranium, and lithium mines. In the process they have weakened a Ukrainian economy that is already in massive debt and has been suspended from major international lending markets.

Whenever the war in Ukraine does finally end, it seems unlikely that the country will be able to use its own natural resources to get back on its feet.

In other Ukraine War news this week:

According to Al Arabiya, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are both contenders to host a meeting between Trump and Putin for Ukraine peace talks.

In the New York Times, Russian sources said yesterday that they have established contact with the Trump administration about potential talks. This was confirmed by President Trump. “And we are talking to the Russians. We are talking to the Ukrainians,” he said.

Trump's team is apparently split over how to approach ending the war, according to NBC, with some members (including National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and General Keith Kellogg) favoring applying pressure on Russia through sanctions and tariffs. Other advisors want to pressure Ukraine by threatening to withdraw military support.

Russia and Ukraine completed a major exchange of captured prisoners in a deal brokered by the UAE, further cementing the UAE's role as a mediator in the conflict, according to France 24,

And in Ukraine, many humanitarian aid groups have halted operations following Trump's aid freeze, says the New York Times.

There was no State Department Briefing this week



Top photo credit: Khody Akhavi

Diplomacy Watch

google cta
QiOSK
United Nations
Monitors at the United Nations General Assembly hall display the results of a vote on a resolution condemning the annexation of parts of Ukraine by Russia, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, at the United Nations Headquarters in New York City, New York, U.S., October 12, 2022. REUTERS/David 'Dee' Delgado||

We're burying the rules based order. But what's next?

Global Crises

In a Davos speech widely praised for its intellectual rigor and willingness to confront established truths, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney finally laid the fiction of the “rules-based international order” to rest.

The “rules-based order” — or RBIO — was never a neutral description of the post-World War II system of international law and multilateral institutions. Rather, it was a discourse born out of insecurity over the West’s decline and unwillingness to share power. Aimed at preserving the power structures of the past by shaping the norms and standards of the future, the RBIO was invariably something that needed to be “defended” against those who were accused of opposing it, rather than an inclusive system that governed relations between all states.

keep readingShow less
china trump
President Donald Trump announces the creation of a critical minerals reserve during an event in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC on Monday, February 2, 2026. Trump announced the creation of “Project Vault,” a rare earth stockpile to lower reliance on China for rare earths and other resources. Photo by Bonnie Cash/Pool/Sipa USA

Trump vs. his China hawks

Asia-Pacific

In the year since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, China hawks have started to panic. Leading lights on U.S. policy toward Beijing now warn that Trump is “barreling toward a bad bargain” with the Chinese Communist Party. Matthew Pottinger, a key architect of Trump’s China policy in his first term, argues that the president has put Beijing in a “sweet spot” through his “baffling” policy decisions.

Even some congressional Republicans have criticized Trump’s approach, particularly following his decision in December to allow the sale of powerful Nvidia AI chips to China. “The CCP will use these highly advanced chips to strengthen its military capabilities and totalitarian surveillance,” argued Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), who chairs the influential Select Committee on Competition with China.

keep readingShow less
Is America still considered part of the 'Americas'?
Top image credit: bluestork/shutterstock.com

Is America still considered part of the 'Americas'?

Latin America

On January 7, the White House announced its plans to withdraw from 66 international bodies whose work it had deemed inconsistent with U.S. national interests.

While many of these organizations were international in nature, three of them were specific to the Americas — the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research, the Pan American Institute of Geography and History, and the U.N.’s Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. The decision came on the heels of the Dominican Republic postponing the X Summit of the Americas last year following disagreements over who would be invited and ensuing boycotts.

keep readingShow less
google cta
Want more of our stories on Google?
Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.