Follow us on social

Not enough long range missiles to make a difference for Ukraine

Not enough long range missiles to make a difference for Ukraine

But letting Kyiv strike deep into Russia could lead us right into war

Europe

Russia and the West are quickly running out of maneuvering room to avoid a head-on military collision.

In the wake of reports that the United States and United Kingdom are poised to approve the use of Western missiles to attack deep inside of Russia, Russian president Putin yesterday made his most pointed comments to date by claiming the move would “change the very nature of the conflict” and would mean NATO and Russia were “at war.” He warned that Russia would take “appropriate decisions.”

In response, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated, “Russia started this conflict. Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Russia can end this conflict straight away. Ukraine has the right to self-defense.”

The military logic for testing Russia’s resolve on this matter is unclear. There is little reason to believe that using air-launched cruise missiles will significantly increase Ukraine’s chances of winning what has become a war of attrition, in which the Russians have enormous advantages over Ukraine in population and military manufacturing. The Russians are wearing down the Ukrainians’ ability to put well trained, well equipped forces into battle, and air-launched cruise missiles will not change that.

Second, the Russians can adjust to longer-range Ukrainian strike capabilities, as they have already adjusted to the provision of HIMARS artillery and ATACMS ground launched missiles. They have moved supply depots, for example, and they have grown more effective in their use of electronic warfare countermeasures to neutralize advanced Western weaponry.

Third, to have a real impact on Ukraine’s ability to damage the Russian homeland, the West would have to supply very large numbers of very long-range missiles — well beyond the small numbers of basic range models that reportedly are being considered. But the West has limited capacity to provide such numbers, and their provision would almost inevitably provoke direct Russian retaliation.

The political logic behind green-lighting deep strikes into Russia is also obscure. There is little reason for optimism that such attacks would build pressure on Putin to end the war or drive him to the negotiating table, but there is good reason for concern that they will amplify his claims that Russia is fighting NATO, not the Ukrainian people. There are many examples in history of large-scale bombing campaigns’ galvanizing public resistance, and so far that has proved true with Russia’s own strikes on Ukraine, which have stoked Ukrainian patriotism and anti-Russian attitudes.

Another potential unintended consequence is that the escalating lethality of Western military support will harden Russian demands at any future bargaining table. The more the West shows that it is willing to use Ukraine to strike into Russia, the more that Russians will insist on extensive Ukrainian demilitarization as a condition of a settlement.

The risks, on the other hand, are quite significant in comparison to the meager rewards. The biggest danger is that Russia will feel compelled to “restore deterrence,” to show the West that it cannot endlessly increase the lethality and range of weapons it provides to Ukraine without some direct response from Russia. Putin will be under pressure in his own country to draw a hard line with some clear strike on a Western target, lest the West just keep deepening its involvement until Russia has few options other than large-scale war with NATO — which Putin clearly wants to avoid.

What “appropriate measures” might Putin take? Russia is very unlikely to react immediately with nuclear escalation. Instead, it could vastly increase its existing acts of sabotage in Europe (which up to now have been more in the nature of warning shots than major attacks); provide missiles and satellite intelligence to Hezbollah or the Houthis; or, if it feels the need to go further, attack Western satellites, which are key to targeting and guidance for Ukrainian strikes.

Any of these actions could do serious damage to the West and provoke Western responses that would drive further an extremely dangerous cycle of mutual escalation, the end of which cannot be foreseen.

Only Putin knows where he might draw a hard line. But given the dangers of direct war between the world’s biggest nuclear powers, it is quite risky for us to keep pushing to discover where that line might be.

Russia cannot win this war unconditionally. It cannot conquer, occupy, and govern all of Ukraine’s vast territory, which would require an invading and occupying force many times the size of Russia’s current military. But it can wreck Ukraine, leaving it in such a state of dysfunction that it cannot be rebuilt or ally with anyone.

It is not in the West’s interest and not in Ukraine’s interest to make it more difficult to reach a settlement that preserves Ukraine’s independence and provides opportunity for a prosperous future.

What Ukraine desperately needs right now is not long-range weapons. It is a viable plan for achieving a negotiated end to this war that gives Ukraine a realistic chance to rebuild itself and prosper.


Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiha, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L to R) enter the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry building in Kyiv, Ukraine, on September 11, 2024. NO USE RUSSIA. NO USE BELARUS. (Photo by Ukrinform/NurPhoto)NO USE FRANCE

Europe
Pope Francis' legacy of inter-faith diplomacy
Top image credit: Pope Francis met with Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, one of the Muslim world's leading authorities on March 6, 2021 in Najaf, Iraq. (Vatican Media via REUTERS)

Pope Francis' legacy of inter-faith diplomacy

Global Crises

One of the most enduring tributes to Pope Francis, who passed away this Easter, would be the appreciation for his legacy of inter-religious diplomacy, a vision rooted in his humility, compassion, and a commitment to bridging divides — between faiths, cultures, and ideologies — from a standpoint of mutual respect and tolerance.

Among his most profound contributions is his historic meeting with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Najaf, Iraq, on March 6, 2021. What made this meeting a true landmark in inter-faith dialogue was the fact it brought together, for the first time, the spiritual leader of the world’s 1.2 billion Roman Catholics and one of the most revered figures in Shia Islam, with influence on tens of millions of Shia Muslims globally. In a humble, yet moving ceremony, the meeting took place in al-Sistani’s modest home in Najaf. A frail al-Sistani, who rarely receives visitors and typically remains seated, stood to greet the 84-year-old Pope and held his hand, in a gesture that underscored mutual respect.

keep readingShow less
Mohammed bin Salman Donald Trump
Top photo credit : File photo dated June 28, 2019 of US President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrive for a meeting on "World Economy" at the G20 Osaka Summit in Osaka, Japan. Photo by Eliot Blondet/ABACAPRESS.COM

No Joke: US considering nuclear power for Saudi in grand bargain

Middle East

The Trump administration is reportedly pursuing a deal with Saudi Arabia that would be a pathway to developing a commercial nuclear power industry in the desert kingdom and maybe even lead to the enrichment of uranium on Saudi soil.

U.S. pursuit of this deal should be scrapped because the United States would bear all the increased commitments, costs, and risks with very little in return.

keep readingShow less
Afghanistan
Top image credit: A U.S. Army soldier watches bottled water that had gone bad burn in a burn-pit at Forward Operating Base Azzizulah in Maiwand District, Kandahar Province, Afghanistan, February 4, 2013. REUTERS/Andrew Burton

Left behind, Afghanistan is now an environmental hellhole

Asia-Pacific

For over four decades, Afghanistan has been trapped in a relentless cycle of war and destruction.

While much of the world’s attention has focused on the political and security dimensions of this conflict, another crisis has unfolded — one that will haunt the country for generations. Afghanistan’s environment has suffered profound devastation, and the consequences for its people are dire.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.