US may push but Ukrainians balk at lowering draft age to 18

In late November, a U.S. official insisted that Ukraine should consider lowering its conscription age from 25 to 18. Today, Ukrainians are balking at the idea.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, a 20-year-old Ukrainian serviceman named Vladislav said that lowering the military conscription age is a “bad idea.” He volunteered to join the army and believes that the option should be open for 18-year-olds to serve, but that it should not be compulsory.

“I would choose to be shot to death right here, in Kyiv instead of going to the frontline,” said 17-year-old Serhiy (Al Jazeera did not identify surnames).

“Our forefathers, Cossacks, didn’t allow a man who had no children, no heirs, to go to war,” he explained to Al Jazeera reporters. “I would have done the same. If there are no people, who the hell needs this land?”

Serhiy’s mother shared her son’s sentiment, adding that young people “aren’t developed mentally, they will jump on (enemy) weapons without thinking, without understanding.” She continued, “they don’t yet have a feeling of self-preservation, they are just flying into battle. This will be (the) destruction of the Ukrainian people.”

These sentiments are reflected in recent polling in Ukraine. Gallup found that over 50% of Ukrainians supported an end to the war, with a large amount supporting the possibility of territorial concessions.

The war has brought destruction, especially to Eastern Ukraine, and has depleted the population by at least 25%. According to the U.N. Population Fund, around 10 million people have been killed, or have left the country since 2014. Ukraine is also dealing with a demographic crisis. A study predicted that the working-age population in Ukraine will decline by a third by 2040.

Ukrainian military officials have reportedly not discussed lowering the conscription age, even as Washington seems to be pushing it. “The need right now is manpower,” an “an unnamed senior US official,” told reporters on Nov. 28. “Mobilization and more manpower could make a significant difference at this time, as we look at the battlefield today.”

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25 back in April and had to resort to using patrols to gather up men who were avoiding conscription. This was shortly after U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham traveled to Ukraine in March and advocated for lowering the draft age. “I would hope that those eligible to serve in the Ukrainian military would join. I can’t believe it’s at 27. You’re in a fight for your life, so you should be serving,” he said, seemingly speaking to military-eligible Ukrainians during a press conference in Kyiv.

This mobilization drive largely failed according to Ukrainian officials, as desertion has become a larger problem for Kyiv, with more than 100,000 charged under the desertion laws since Russia invaded in February 2022, according to the Associated Press. One Ukrainian lawmaker has claimed that desertion numbers could be as high as 200,000.

An officer in the 72nd Brigade noted that desertion was a large part of why the city of Vuhledar was lost to the Russians in October, adding that “it is clear that now, frankly speaking, we have already squeezed the maximum out of our people.”

“It is difficult to imagine that Kyiv would drag its heels on lowering the conscription age unless it perceived serious and potentially severe domestic consequences,” said the Quincy Institute’s Mark Episkopos.

“This, coupled with polling showing that most Ukrainians favor reaching a peace settlement as soon as possible, thrusts into question the strength of President Zelensky's wartime mandate going into 2025,” he adds. “The opposition to this proposal from Zelensky's office, despite ongoing pressure from the US, suggests that popular discontent inside Ukraine may be approaching a tipping point.”

“Being quiet about a huge problem only harms our country,” Serhii Hnezdiliv, a soldier who was open about his choice to desert, told the AP. “If there’s no end term (to military service), it turns into a prison — it becomes psychologically hard to find reasons to defend this country.”