Follow us on social

Trump Netanyahu

Trump appears all in for Netanyahu's political survival

The US is being drawn deeper into Middle East conflicts that serve Israel’s needs over American ones

Analysis | Middle East

On March 25, Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu’s government passed its long-delayed 2025 budget. Had the vote failed, it would have automatically triggered snap elections — an outcome Netanyahu appears politically incapable of surviving.

While Israel cited stalled hostage negotiations and ongoing security threats as reasons for ending the U.S.-backed ceasefire in Gaza, Netanyahu’s decision to resume large-scale military operations just days before the vote also appeared aimed at shoring up support from far-right coalition partners such as Itamar Ben Gvir. The budget, framed explicitly by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich as a “war budget,” includes record levels of defense spending and a dramatic increase in funding for Israeli public diplomacy, a nod to the government’s attempt to counteract ongoing international condemnation of Israel’s military actions in Gaza.

The breakdown of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas has been widely blamed on Hamas intransigence, with Israeli spokesman Eylon Levy and others, including Trump aide Steve Witkoff on the Tucker Carlson Show, claiming Hamas refused to negotiate. Yet the record shows a different sequence: Israel introduced new terms during phase two of the talks — terms that had not been agreed to — and demanded unilateral acceptance.

The Israelis made this shift without coordination with mediators or the other side, appearing to reject the original framework that Hamas had agreed to based on verbal guarantees from U.S., Egyptian, and Qatari mediators. Despite this, Israel withdrew from negotiations and launched airstrikes across Gaza on March 18, killing more than 400 people in a single night. The White House later confirmed it was consulted in advance, raising questions about the depth of U.S. involvement and endorsement.

The timing of Israel’s decision to unilaterally end the ceasefire also raises questions about the extent to which Netanyahu’s political agenda drove the renewal of the war. Netanyahu narrowly avoided renewed investigations into so-called “Qatargate” — a scandal that involved Netanyahu’s aides allegedly receiving funding from Qatar while managing hostage negotiations. In a move widely seen as preemptive damage control, Netanyahu abruptly moved to fire the head of Shin Bet and began the process to remove the attorney general, in what critics called an attempt to derail investigations.

The attempt to fire both has prompted mass protests, with over 100,000 Israelis returning to the streets to condemn his attempts to avoid accountability, in a show of popular resistance not seen since before the October 7 Hamas attack.

According to Israeli polls, if elections were held today, Netanyahu would likely lose and finally be forced to confront longstanding corruption and fraud charges. War, by contrast, offers him a mechanism to delay legal accountability and maintain control over the national narrative. The question is, why is Donald Trump prioritizing Netanyahu’s political survival over U.S. interests?

When Trump, who was not yet in the White House, pressured Netanyahu to accept phase 1 of the ceasefire, he demonstrated America’s leverage over Israel (which Biden refused to use, and which arguably cost his party the White House). He also reasserted American national interests, which are best served by reducing tensions in the Middle East and avoiding being dragged into yet another endless war in the region.

The extent to which maritime traffic in the Red Sea is central to U.S. interests is debatable. Yet to the extent that the U.S. wishes to prioritize the Suez Canal, the Gaza ceasefire also prompted the Houthis to end their attacks on ships. By enforcing the ceasefire, Trump could have scaled back Operation Prosperity Guardian, a U.S.-led naval mission costing billions and receiving minimal support from the countries that benefit most directly from Red Sea shipping. With the Gaza ceasefire, Trump demonstrated that he would prioritize American interests over those of Netanyahu.

But that moment has passed. By greenlighting Israel’s desire to reinitiate its war on Gaza, Trump is following in Biden’s feckless footsteps, allowing Netanyahu’s political fortunes to put American servicemembers at risk, not only in the Red Sea, but potentially across the region.

This is particularly evident in Trump’s recent decision to escalate airstrikes on Yemen, resulting in 53 civilian deaths, marking the most intense week of bombardment since the closing stages of the Saudi-UAE air campaign in January 2022. While officially framed as a response to Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping, the strikes resumed almost immediately before the Gaza ceasefire collapsed, despite a lull in Houthi attacks during the truce. The Houthis stated their intention to target Israeli vessels on March 11, in response to Israel preventing the entry of any aid or goods into Gaza, in violation of the ceasefire terms, since March 2.

The timing suggests that these operations serve less to protect U.S. assets, and rather more to back Israel’s broader military campaign across the region. In turn, American forces are being pulled towards a war posture directly reflecting Israel’s objectives as opposed to advancing defined American ones.

This shift raises essential questions about the direction of U.S. foreign policy, as despite rhetorical commitments to disentangle from costly, open-ended conflicts, the Trump administration appears increasingly aligned with a regional agenda driven by Netanyahu’s domestic imperatives rather than American strategic alignment, continuing to provide significant material and diplomatic support to Israel.

At a time when the U.S. faces overstretched resources and fraying alliances, subordinating American strategy to Netanyahu’s maneuvering risks entrenching Washington in a broader regional conflict with limited upside.

Trump once demonstrated that the U.S. could shape outcomes and recalibrate its role, but his current posture suggests that leverage is slipping. For a policy framework that claims to put American interests first, this trajectory leads elsewhere.


Top image credit: noamgalai / Shutterstock.com
Analysis | Middle East
British Royal Navy
Top photo credit: Launch of Duncan on the Clyde in Scotland MOD, Royal Navy, 2010. (Ian Arthur/MOD/Wikimedia)

Secretary's remark that UK 'will fight' China is a dip into crazy town

Asia-Pacific

Having spent the past decade telling the British public that Russia poses the biggest ‘immediate threat’ to the United Kingdom, the idea that Britain should get ready to fight China is idiotic and irresponsible.

During a visit to Australia to join HMS Prince of Wales, which is currently leading Carrier Strike Group 25 to Asia, UK Defense Secretary John Healey implied that the UK might be willing to fight China in the Pacific over Taiwan. “If we have to fight, as we have done in the past, Australia and the UK are nations that will fight together. We exercise together and by exercising together and being more ready to fight, we deter better together.”

keep readingShow less
Gaza starvation children
Top photo credit: Palestinian children suffering from malnutrition receive medical care at Al-Rantisi Children's Hospital, July 24, 2025, Gaza. Photo by Omar Ashtawy apaimages Gaza city Gaza Strip Palestinian Territory 240725_Gaza_OSH_0014 Copyright: xapaimagesxOmarxAshtawyxxapaimagesx

This isn't a 'war' — Israel is destroying a population

Middle East

The prospects for negotiating a ceasefire and an end to the humanitarian disaster in the Gaza Strip appear as dim as ever. Israeli and U.S. representatives walked out of talks with Hamas in Qatar that had been mediated by the Qataris and Egyptians. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is talking about “alternative” means of achieving Israel’s goals in the territory.

President Donald Trump, echoing Netanyahu’s levying of blame on Hamas, asserted that “Hamas didn’t really want to make a deal. I think they want to die.” Trump went on to mention a need to “finish the job,” evidently referring to Israel’s continued devastating assault on the Strip and its residents.

keep readingShow less
Rafael Groosi , Abbas Araghchi , badr Abdelatty
Top photo credit: Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty meets with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi in Cairo, Egypt, June 2, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany

Are Iran and Egypt relations on the cusp of a 'seismic shift'?

Middle East

In the heart of old Cairo last month, one of the Middle East’s longest-running rifts was being publicly laid to rest.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, flanked by Egyptian officials, walked through Cairo’s historic Khan el-Khalili bazaar, prayed at the Al-Hussein Mosque, and dined with former Egyptian foreign ministers at the storied Naguib Mahfouz restaurant. Araghchi was unequivocal when he posted during his trip that Egyptian-Iranian relations had “entered a new phase.”

This visit was more than routine diplomacy, but a signal of a potentially seismic shift between two Middle Eastern powers, drawn together by the pull of shared crises.

The rupture began in 1979, when Iran’s revolutionary leaders severed diplomatic relations after Egyptian President Anwar Sadat signed the Camp David Accords with Israel — a betrayal in Tehran’s eyes. The schism deepened when Cairo granted asylum to the deposed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who was just overthrown by a popular revolution which birthed a new Islamic Republic under the leadership of Ayatollah Khomeini. He died and was buried in Egypt in 1980.

During the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), Egypt’s material support for Saddam Hussein’s regime cemented Tehran’s view of Cairo as an antagonist. For decades thereafter, diplomatic relations remained frozen, with only intermittent and largely fruitless attempts at dialogue.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.