Ted Cruz is reportedly planning on running for president. But which version?
The Tea Party Republican senator who once called the Iraq war a mistake, tried to appeal to non-interventionist Ron Paul libertarians, questioned Barack Obama’s authority to strike Syria, warned against U.S. military adventurism, who was also once the favored alternative to Donald Trump in the 2016 GOP presidential primary only to eventually capitulate to MAGA even after Trump insulted his wife?
No. This Cruz will be neocon. But without calling it that, or even appearing to rebrand to Trump voters, while also, in actuality, rebranding.
Axios reported Sunday that it had obtained recordings of Cruz speaking privately with donors in which he takes particular aim at Vice President JD Vance and popular conservative personality Tucker Carlson.
“Cruz's rebukes, during two meetings last year, are some of the harshest criticisms of Trump and Vance by a fellow Republican since they took office a year ago,” Axios reported. “The recordings — nearly 10 minutes in total — provide an unvarnished look at how Cruz is positioning himself as a traditional free trade, pro-interventionist Republican ahead of a possible 2028 primary campaign against the less hawkish Vance.”
The report continued, “During his talks, Cruz cast Vance as a pawn of conservative podcaster Tucker Carlson. Cruz has accused Carlson of promoting antisemitism and an anti-Israel foreign policy in their well-publicized spats.”
In an interview with Carlson in June, the host embarrassed Cruz by asking the senator which part of the Bible supported his Christain Zionist beliefs. Cruz had nothing. He has repeatedly accused Carlson of being an anti-Semite ever since.
“Cruz repeatedly brings up Vance in the recordings, tying him to Carlson and accusing him of advancing the podcaster's anti-interventionist foreign policy,” Axios observed. Cruz says on a recording, "Tucker created JD. JD is Tucker's protégé, and they are one and the same.”
The recordings reported on Sunday taking aim at Vance and Carlson are but the latest speculations that Cruz is hawk-eyeing 2028. Axios reported in November that by tussling with Tucker, Cruz was “staking out turf as a traditional, pro-interventionist Republican.” In other words, a political dinosaur.
“By poking at Carlson's isolationist foreign policy views, accusing him of antisemitism and more, Cruz is putting himself on a collision course with Vice President Vance, a Carlson ally widely seen as the 2028 GOP frontrunner,” Axios noted.
If it is widely expected that Vance is the top contender to inherit MAGA in the race for the 2028 Republican nomination, the vice president will have more trouble convincing the Jurassic Park warriors in Washington, which have never completely warmed up to him. And they may be pre-Trumpism relics, but they still have plenty of money, influence, and institutional power to burn.
Cruz is shrewd enough to understand this and is clearly presenting himself as the Old Guard’s candidate.This might sound like a gamble as the Republican base twice elected Trump. Who does he think is up for still up for grabs?
Donors, for starters. And Marco Rubio supporters, should he not run. Any wealthy Republican still frustrated that their party was snatched away by Trumpism. Hawkish Senator Lindsey Graham doesn’t necessarily have a tangible MAGA base either, but he latches his neoconservative agenda to it out of convenience. Wouldn’t it be nice to be openly interventionist and not have to try to square it with “America First’ again? There’s money slushing around to talk about free trade and ideological interventions, like regime change in Iran. Where there’s war or the promise of it, there’s always money.
In November, The American Conservative’s Scott Greer analyzed Cruz’s strategy. “Cruz is in a difficult situation,” Greer wrote. “He needs to distinguish himself from JD Vance, Trump’s assumed heir who will run on the administration’s legacy. But Cruz can’t attack Trump or his movement. Instead, he’s set on Tucker Carlson as a proxy target to deride Trumpism.”
This would allow Cruz to advertise as MAGA in public and something closer to Bush-Cheney in private.
“With Tucker as his preferred nemesis, Cruz can claim he’s MAGA while he demands the GOP return to the old guard conservatism Trump buried in 2016,” Greer speculates. “The senator will simply brand Carlson’s America Firstism as un-MAGA and his own conservatism as true MAGA.”
It will be a ruse, but can it be one that works?
Publicly, the senator supports the Trump administration's ousting of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, was pleased the administration designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” over the killing of Christians, is more than ready for a U.S.-led regime change in Iran, and of course can’t say enough that he “stands” with Israel. Privately he blames Vance for leading an isolationist strain inside the White House.
Polls have shown that over the course of the current bloodshed in Gaza, younger Republicans have soured on Israel to a significant degree, showing a real age gap on the issue in the party. Popular non-interventionist pundits like Carlson have given voice to this trend.
Cruz noted this in a video released Monday, "There is a tangible, dangerous antisemitic contingent on the right. That is gaining traction, gaining popularity, being listened to by young people, and gaining attention."
Of course, Cruz is vowing to head off this danger.
He is making these moves in a period where many of Donald Trump’s original restraint-oriented supporters have been disappointed by how much he’s been willing to intervene abroad, with the president often appearing to want to make regime change great again instead.
That kind of environment could be more fertile ground for a Cruzian MAGA in 2028, yet polls also show that Americans-at-large believe the president’s foreign policy has gone too far. Has much traction would a more hawkish Republican candidate get? A dinosaur at that?
Expect Ted Cruz to keep going after his direct target J.D. Vance who will keep being renamed Tucker Carlson by the senator for the foreseeable future, in public and in private.
But especially in private.
